The two JCs.
Purely from an investigator role, I’m leaning towards **Zeriel **being town. On flimsy evidence, no doubt. (btw, is **Zeriel **a he or a she)
- She announced she had this role prior to anyone knowing it existed
- We then got confirmation that this role did exist, in the form of Ichini’s death
- No one else has claimed the role, and I can’t see how only one town faction would have it, that’d be unfair
But I will repeat something **Daphne **(I think) said some time ago - **Zeriel **you are running a big risk to the town as a whole by not revealing your info. That risk being you get killed by the wolves prior to releasing anything, which is less than useful.
From a pro- or anti-town perspective in terms of activity, she has been a little anti-town. Very little substantive involvement.
The more I re-read, the less I am suspecting Telcontar. I may be the largest fool ever, but I am believing he’s a rancher townie now.
At this point, I’m thinking that the wolves may be quieter folks, so I’m going to review some of the people that have fewer posts than a lot of us. I’m really concerned that with Daphne gone, the conversation is going to dwindle down.
The wolves were really smart to kill Daphne.
There are two different constructions that could be put on this question Either : Why is Zeriel the player still alive? Or, why is Zeriel the holder of an investigative role still alive?
The latter question is really quite easy to answer. What threat is Zeriel the Rancher/Farmer alignment investigator to the Werewolves? If Zeriel is a Town-aligned investigator, then if and when he reports his investigation results, all it will reveal is who is a Farmer and who is a Rancher - and we now know that Werewolves return a Farmer or Rancher.
In short, all a Townie Zeriel’s information can do is strengthen the aim of his faction against that of the emeny Town faction.
In short, Zeriel’s investigative ability is, in itself, no threat to the Werewolf position, even when held by a Townsperson.
Why Zeriel-the-poster is still alive has the same sort of answer as the question of why I am still alove, or any of the rest of us - either the poster in question is a Wolf, or the poster in question was lower on their kill list.
Well, so what exactly is my “take?” I only see one post from the other JC and it bears little resemblance to what I said - in fact it’s a post in which I can find a lot to dislike. I certainly didn’t think Daphne was scum, and Daphne, I hasten to add, thought Justin Credible was.
Our point of agreement (to wit, that it isn’t necessarily true that a wolf could never have voted for Elendil) is one so bland that nearly everyone falls into the category of having that ‘take;’ it strikes me as strange that you want to make a point of linking two of us to it. By all means scrutinize what I do say, but it’s not easy to see what good reason you had to make a connection between the two of us that isn’t supported by anything on the record. It’s possible that I just didn’t make my point very well at all, which is why I’m wondering what take exactly you’re attributing to me.
MHaye, again, anything other than Zeriel rancher/farmer philosophical musings?
The helpful/meaningful part of your post said that we shouldn’t take the EH vote seriously, we were lucky and for all we know a wolf could have been among those voting for him. Justin backs up that point, as does Mahaloth to some extent. Given that I have a list of 5 suspects (4 really) based on voting patterns and you’re all on it…a person begins to conclude a few things.
Oredigger77 and** rex**, did you have more to say? **Zeriel **and Mhaye, care to look up and join the rest of the game?
Sure, conclude whatever you like, but if it’s crap I’m going to say so. And state your conclusions.
I didn’t say anything like that. I said that the EH vote was anything but luck. I said that… well, I mean, it’s right up there already. I said that we should learn from what you, Daphne, Oredigger, and rex did, reevaluating and not relying on untested assumptions. I saw lots of assumptions early in this day. I think that’s a recipe for an easily manipulated vote. So I said so. It obviously wasn’t luck, and we shouldn’t ignore it, otherwise we have a bunch of people stuck yammering back and forth in little groups goring each others’ oxen because they’ve decided they’re right about something.
I’m really not sure what you’re trying to do here. Anyone can look and see whether I said anything about luck, or about not taking seriously our ONLY successful vote. And, I mean, I didn’t. But jesus, enough about me.
fluiddruid and Justin Credible also haven’t weighed in yet. I guess it’s a good thing Daphne lasted as long as she did.
How about this:
MHaye, I don’t think you’re fully participating in the game, and I can’t think of a good town reason for that. When you’re here, you post about either tangential game theory, or you kick Zeriel in the shins. Zeriel does the same, but at least he’s got enough respect for the rest of us to claim a role. You said you need a lot of time to form your thoughts. I think maybe it’s time.
test MHaye
Building a case around one vote is nonsense. One vote is a data point, add it to a case and you have something, but by itself it is not indicitive of anything. Naturally I would argue this point as that particular train of thought condemns me, so I would like to remind people of my thinking yesterDay - and that is urging the town not to vote for the one person, but to consider several options. The town did that, and not only did it give a result, it creates more data by watching how people changed their vote.
To encourage that sort of atmosphere I acted on my own advice, and voted for someone I thought was suspicious but didn’t have many votes. That person happened to not be EH. That alone shouldn’t make me more suspect than, say, Tel or Oredigger, just because they voted for a bad guy.
The wolves have proven themselves to be clever. Oversimplifying the situation is dangerous.
Actually, I think Telcontar is at least partially right.
To play the odds carefully, we should probably lynch someone who did not vote for EH. I’m aware this includes me, but since I’ve been an active player and haven’t done anything scummy, I feel safe in suggesting that I’m not the scummiest of the folks that didn’t vote for EH.
My suspicions move to either MHaye or Zeriel, actually, who were my 2nd, 3rd, or 4th on my suspicion list(or somewhere around there). If I get a chance today(small d) to go back, I’ll try to write up my basic reasoning for suspecting these two.
First of all, I’m a “he”.
Second of all, while I appreciate you having a vested interest in ignoring it, my case against you was every bit as meaningful as my case against MHaye.
Third, you’re not lying about being a rancher, which says nothing about your “wolf” status.
Honestly, I don’t dig MHaye’s style at all, and I really think his slip is the best thing I personally have to go on–his protestations to the contrary.
I’m pretty much less suspicious of Telcontar at this point, but I have lingering second-guessing of myself.
I think the main reason the wolves are leaving me alive is because it’s pretty obvious that I’m a rancher, and if they have an investigator on the farmer/rancher axis as well then it seems to me like they’re stacking up the kills in such a way to try to sucker us into finishing off the farmers while they’re vulnerable. One of the reasons I’m not revealing my results is that I don’t feel like playing that game.
Which slip do you refer to? Is he the one who mentioned previous attempts at locating townies and successful methods for it?
I made it about half way through my summary of EH yesterday and my computer ate it. I was stupid for not saving it. I didn’t have the heart to start over last night so I’ll have it in pretty quick I’ve got a calm morning.
The slip where he correctly called someone’s farmer/rancher alignment before that person had revealed said alignment publicly.
Oh, yeah, forgot. test MHaye
No, but it does help us understand the Testerizer just a bit more. I would be hard-pressed to believe that the mod would put in such a ridiculously complex machine that it spews out apparently random-ish colors, one of which (green) at one location signifies a townie, the other location … doesn’t.
We also know (disregarding the position of the color) that color does not identify rancher/farmer alignment.
In other words, I’m leaning towards there being a subset of colors that signify town regardless of position. We know what some (most, or god help us please, all) of them are.
This is, of course, assuming you are telling the truth.
Oh, and thanks for beginning to release results.
Just to review I’m going back through all of EH’s interactions looking for any connections to other player who might be scum. I’ll start of with a summary of those interactions and posts in general. Hopefully that will allow me to draw some conclusions.
Day 1
EH starts off in #126 agreeing with Jimmy Chitwood that Justin Credible is off base in thinking that Daphne is hiding in plain sight. Next in #161 EH disagrees with Daphne that stating that he thinks there are (considerably?) fewer werewolves then 4. #186 is just EH welcoming Ichini. #214 EH votes to test Telcontar and lynch november no reasons given. Zeriel tells EH that it looks wrong to be voting to lynch someone different then the testee to which EH replies that he isn’t persuaded by the strategy put forth by the town (#231). Zeriel asks EH for a reason for those votes and gets a response in #262 that EH is voting based on hunches and the judgment of other voters. At this point ** Zeriel, and Daphne Black ** had voted to test ** Telcontar ** and Lemur866, Jimmy Chitwood, rexnervous had voted to lynch November. Daphne questions EH about the people that EH trusts as wells as why he is so worried about garnering suspicion the response is in #289. EH claims farmer and says that he is intimidated by the game so far and doesn’t want to implicate anyone before being firmly convinced. Freudian Slit questions the reason for the claim and in #293 EH says that it was because **Telcontar[/b[ had already claimed.
Day 2
rexnervour started off the day wondering why EH had claimed unprovoked to which Daphne replied that it probably wasn’t a scum move because it would draw attention but was curious why EH felt he could trust people. EH replied in #476 that he didn’t have a good reason to claim but hinted that there may have been some deeper strategy. After claiming to be busy EH comes in, in post #594 to vote to test and lynch Freudian Slit with no reason given. FS claims that it is suspicious that EH would vote to lynch before the test results came back. After which EH claims that an unvote is always possible in #597. At this point Daphne Black, Fluiddruid, rexnervous, SoT&B, Justin Credible, Telcontar, Mahaloth, Elendil’s Heir, [Undecided] Adrian had all voted to test FS while only Fluiddruid and EH had voted to lynch FS. After the colors on the test came back wonky EH quotes his vote and says he stands by it and feels vindicated. To the suggestion of Pede that we could move up the Day’s end EH says that he’s not against it but has no urge to move it.
Day 3
Justin Credible starts off the day saying that EH is too non-confrontational and that it could be a ruse to get the town to discount the possibility that EH is scum. EH’s reply is in #813 basically boils down to him having suspicions and hunches but doesn’t feel comfortable declaring someone is scum and that is how he plays games. Daphne comes in next and tells EH that mafia is about talking about suspicions and why and says that EH is not being helpful to the town by covering up his suspicions. EH’s response, in #815, is to say that Daphne is chatty and suspicious and might be a wolf. In #862 EH calims to be busy with work and decides to vote with that majority to test Seeker. At that point Oredigger77, Justin Credible, Daphne Black, Allwalker, MHaye, [Undecided] Adrian, Mahaloth, Telcontar and Fluiddruid has already voted for Seeker. When Jimmy Chitwood rated a variety of posters he gave EH a 2/10 for being a scum for claiming noob status and not playing. EH replies in #866 and says that JC should look to his own play style. In #947 EH votes for seeks and uses Mahaloth and Justin Credible as the people who’s reasons that he is using for his own vote. At that point Telcontar, fluiddruid, Jimmy Chitwood, [Undecided] Adrian, AllWalker, Justin Credible, Zeriel, Mahaloth, DaphneBlack, Elindil’s Heir were all voting for Seeker.
Day 4
Daphne starts off asking EH why he shouldn’t be lynched. The response came in #1043 and was that EH wasn’t a wolf and had been as helpful as possible without claiming that anyone was a wolf also EH used the questions as a reason to vote for Daphne. Daphne comes back and smudges EH by saying he is posting as little as possible and in a confrontational style. EH responds in #1082 saying that Daphne pushed EH into voting for her with repeated groundless accusations and tells Daphne to stop digging the hole she’s in. fluiddruid tells EH that he needs to give reasons for his votes and that it is scummy to vote without reasons. Eh replies in #1101 that Daphne has been accusing EH and others with very little information, has a high post count and is not helpful to the town concluding that he is willing to drop the subject of **Daphne is a consensus builds a different direction. In #1136 no one else had voted for Daphne and the town was consolidating voted down to Oredigger77 and Telcontar so EH decided to test me but no reason was given. I commented that voting without reasons was the reason I was voting for EH to which EH replied, #1142, that his vote shift was no different from every one else scrambling to prevent a tie. Mahaloth says that EH is not in his top 4 and was looking for a summary of the case against EH and EH jumps in to say that the case is lame/strained/illogical/unpersuasive in #1163. When the idea of read through come up EH again claims that he has been busy and might not be able to get the job done, in #1177. EH comes in in #1220 to post a review of rexnervous with the conclusions that he is a particularly active player who is fully engaged and is eager to appear helpful and pro-town, this leaves EH with little residual suspicion of rex. In #1222 EH comes back to say that he wont do MHaye’s review until after he sees how the votes goes. Finally in #1225 EH votes for Tel 1 min late and 4 min after his previous post.
This is long enough I’ll be back in a bit with my analysis.
Bleached.
So a second confirmation using your role. Interesting.
Just an alert - I am buried at work and at an all-day meeting tomorrow, so will not be posting much in next couple of days.
Since we need to test and I need to vote, I vote
test MHaye
The reason is less the slip, which while eyebrow-raising could have been a simple mistake, but because MHaye has been anything but pro-town. Not only one of the lowest posters, but virtually everything IIRC has been fluff/explanation.
You’ll notice as well that we never did get MHaye’s review of…well, anyone.
I’ll start with the easy stuff. EH was trying to start a bandwagon on Daphne on Day 4 but no one seems to be biting so unfortunately I can’t do much with this except conclude that Daphne is town, wow there is a surprise. I think that its interesting that when it came down to decision between me and Tel EH chose me but at the end to save his life instead of voting with 4 minuets to spare he held his vote until it was too late and voted for Tel.
The only two unique votes by the end of Day 4 were Eh and Zeriel. I also noticed that Eh voted with Z on both Day 1 and Day 3. This strikes me as weird and has raised Z on my suspicion list. On the other end of the spectrum is Mhaye, he no interaction with EH except they both voted to test Seeker after he claimed wolf.
I only went through posts that EH responded to too so I know I’m missing some of the other interactions around him, namely my own. But I think the combination of Mhaye avoiding EH and the game in general is enough for me to vote for him so
Vote MHaye
Oops. Thought you claimed female near the beginning. We really should have a box for that in the profile.
Your case against me was…what exactly? And your case against Mhaye is…what exactly? Really?
I think that MHaye’s playstyle is anti town (and not wanting to vote to make ties at the last second is weird*). The point in his favor is that he could have saved Elendil’s heir and didn’t.
I’ve been pretty clear what my subset of suspicions is and why. I’m going to go with Daphne’s suspicion from yesterday:
test Justin Credible
He couldn’t have saved EH without really standing out and he had been suspicious even prior to that.
*We should only completely trust our own motives and those of (dead) confirmed townies. Creating a situation where someone else decides the test/lynch is crazy and will become more so if we use up our last mistake.
Bleached.
You know what - Telcontar is right about MHaye and his “vote” for EH, something I completely forgot in my hazy, work-induced state. It doesn’t make me think MHaye (despite his explanation for his posting habits) isn’t still pinging me and is really not at all pro-town in this game
I need to think this thru a bit. Will be back tonite with my test vote. For now…
**untest MHaye
**