Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split [Signups--In progress]

[Oredigger77]

@rexnervous

You know what - Telcontar is right about MHaye and his “vote” for EH, something I completely forgot in my hazy, work-induced state. It doesn’t make me think MHaye (despite his explanation for his posting habits) isn’t still pinging me and is really not at all pro-town in this game

Well MHaye’s not voting for Tel to tie up the vote is only pro-town if Tel is town. Three people had the option of tying the vote between Telcontar, EH and MHaye. Neither of them did even though EH was posting 4 min before the voting deadline and MHaye posting 2 min before.

I also just noticed that I screwed up my analysis. Z was the one off vote for MHaye and MHaye pulled his vote. I think that its interesting that the two people my analysis pulled as being involved with EH both decided to not change the outcome.

[Mahaloth]

@Oredigger77

Well MHaye’s not voting for Tel to tie up the vote is only pro-town if Tel is town.
.

Exactly, but it seems that the town, for toDay, is going off the theory that the best way to make a lynch vote is to accept that the people who voted for EH are not wolves. We all know this isn’t perfectly sound, but it seems to be what people want to do toDay.

Because of this, I’ve more or less dropped Telcontar for toDay. My 2nd or 3rd suspicion included MHaye and Zeriel and right now, it seems that a bit of suspicion is arising on the town around MHaye.

I’ve mentioned MHaye before and I don’t want to look like I’m jumping on the band wagon, so I’m going to vote right now(test only).

test MHaye

[Telcontar]

@Oredigger77

Well MHaye’s not voting for Tel to tie up the vote is only pro-town if Tel is town. Three people had the option of tying the vote between Telcontar, EH and MHaye. Neither of them did even though EH was posting 4 min before the voting deadline and MHaye posting 2 min before.

I also just noticed that I screwed up my analysis. Z was the one off vote for MHaye and MHaye pulled his vote. I think that its interesting that the two people my analysis pulled as being involved with EH both decided to not change the outcome.

It’s true that allowing EH to die instead of making me take his place is only pro-town if I’m innocent, but do keep in mind that there were two votes against someone else: you, Oredigger77. If EH and I had worked together we could have switched our votes to you. EH wouldn’t have been any more suspicious than otherwise and, since I’d voted to test you, certainly no one would have been surprised if i continued by trying to lynch you. So really I am most likely a wolf only in a world where you are also a wolf…and that would be a mighty strange world indeed! Since you (presumably) know you’re town, you should have some faith in my innocence.

The above is why I think the EH vote was so diagnostic. By effectively one vote we killed a wolf instead of a townsperson. I think this removes a fair bit of suspicion from people who could have have done more to help EH but actively failed to do so. Also, in my pool of suspects i’m not really sure who to go with but, given that we now know Daphne is innocent, i’m inclined to punt the decision back to her suspicion: Justin.

I’m basically assuming that the Zeriel MHaye thing is town on town violence. Zeriel i’m stuck thinking of as innocent for game balance and MHaye, shrug. I think yesterday’s vote gives us some reason to believe he’s not a wolf, even if I really don’t approve of his playstyle.

[Oredigger77]

@Telcontar

It’s true that allowing EH to die instead of making me take his place is only pro-town if I’m innocent, but do keep in mind that there were two votes against someone else: you, Oredigger77. If EH and I had worked together we could have switched our votes to you. EH wouldn’t have been any more suspicious than otherwise and, since I’d voted to test you, certainly no one would have been surprised if i continued by trying to lynch you. So really I am most likely a wolf only in a world where you are also a wolf…and that would be a mighty strange world indeed! Since you (presumably) know you’re town, you should have some faith in my innocence.

If you and EH had worked together and switched your votes to me it would have only put me in the lead by one vote which I could have tied simply by voting for you. This would have involved you guys switching at the last minute which is an obvious move only to create a even chance of wolf getting lynched. As it was you look town because of EH’s late vote. If you are a wolf that is a bigger boost to your team then creating an obvious team up and only gaining a 50% chance of lynching town.

I don’t mean this as evidence I’m just pointing out that there are situations where you could be a wolf and still act as you did. I think we should leave you in the neutral group. What I’m thinking now is that Z and MHaye’s ‘town-on-town’ violence is probably wolf-on-wolf designed to make at least one of them look town.

[Telcontar]

@Oredigger77

I don’t mean this as evidence I’m just pointing out that there are situations where you could be a wolf and still act as you did. I think we should leave you in the neutral group. What I’m thinking now is that Z and MHaye’s ‘town-on-town’ violence is probably wolf-on-wolf designed to make at least one of them look town.

That had occurred to me, but **Zeriel’**s role claim looks fairly solid. 1.) The game balance would suck pretty drastically if only the farmers had a cop 2.) **Zeriel **made his claim pre **Ich’**s death (we don’t know for certain that the roles are equivalent, but they sound close). Of course, Mhaye could be a wolf even if **Zeriel **is town, but we’ve seen little evidence for that (and his failure to vote against me in the **EH **standoff is a clear signal to me, if a somewhat hazier one for everyone else).

[Zeriel]

@Telcontar

Your case against me was…what exactly? And your case against Mhaye is…what exactly? Really?

Are you actually reading what I write, man?

My case against you was that you had a very pro-town observation (the number of likely wolves+town meant that skipping a lynch at some point would net us an extra Day) and suggested and stuck to longer than was reasonable an anti-town plan based on that (skip a lynch earlier rather than later in the game). I really don’t care whether or not you AGREE with it, but it’s a valid case especially on Day One before we had any real data.

My case against MHaye is that he demonstrated PIS, and he’s usually a pretty on-the-ball player so when he makes a PIS slip I assume that means he’s scum and actually has perfect information–and regardless of the postgame discussion, last time I was in a game where he slipped like that he was scum, so I’m playing the odds.

[MHaye]

Justin Credible: The Thirty-Nine Posts.

My apologies for leaving this so long. I should have done this long since, but couldn’t settle to anything last week.

Neglecting “downtime” posts – that is, posts made at Night, and posts made prior to the formal game start (of which there are a total of six) we have only 39 posts to review. I’m going to take them day-by-day.

Justin’s Day 1 was spent being suspicious of DaphneBlack, suggesting that she may be “hiding in plain sight.” He then moved on to argue for Tenderizing Seeker of Truth and Beauty, before settling on a vote for testing Daphne. He made one vote post-Test, joining the November bandwagon. That, plus straightening out a misunderstanding of the rules, was his Day 1 activity. 10 posts in all.

On Day 2, Justin managed 11 posts. He spent time pondering why Scuba_Ben had been killed Overnight, speculating that he might have been “on to something.” When he wasn’t doing that, he was expressing suspicion of Freudian Slit for voting to test someone with no votes against him rather than vote in self-defence. Despite being called out for DaphneBlack for suppressing debate, he continued his suspicions, voting to test, and finally lynch, FS. He didn’t support this continued suspicion – just said she had “pinged his radar”. Once again, no substance post-Test, just a lynch vote.

By the time I’d got this far, I was beginning to feel a bit of suspicion that Justin might be a Werewolf. His behaviour in not justifying the vote to test FS bothers me. All he ever had against her was something that he later accepted (or seemed to) was an error; see, specifically, [post=10865801]post 568[/post].

Day 3, and his posts get a bit of meat on the bones. He started in post [post=10896669]786[/post] by discussing the top suspects that Day. However, one of his comments on Seeker doesn’t jibe with my memory of the game. He states that we “now know” Wolves have Farmer/Werewolf status. Did we in fact “know” that at the time he was writing?

The answer is we did not, because Pedescribe had officially declined to say Yay or Nay; see post [post=10865136]531[/post]. We did not learn for certain until Elendil’s Heir was executed, nearly two Days later. The only way Justin could have “known” this is if he is himself a Werewolf.

The only other substantial post he made in Day 3 was [post=10898272]805[/post]. This makes sense whatever alignment Justin is; as a Wolf he’d be throwing out clouds of chaff to blur the Townspeople’s scumdar; as a Townsperson he’d be trying to feel through what the Werewolves might or might not do.

Day 4.
Justin’s returns from his player analyses (first [post=10929078]Mahaloth[/post] in 1179 then [post=10929109]Zeriel[/post] in 1180) are light and crunchless. He finds both players somewhat suspicious, but beyond an overall feeling he has nothing to go on.

Of his other posts, three of Day 4’s 8 are one-liners that express some sort of suspicion of DaphneBlack; [post=10929111]1181[/post] (at least) insinuates a lot without saying anything outright. The only substantial post attacking her was [post=10921355]1078[/post], in which he accuses Daphne of throwing accusations everywhere to keep the spotlight off her. While I’ve seen Werewolves play like that, and I know Daphne has (because her one and only game around here she was a Rogue Replicant, along with Roosh, and that was how he played) the playstyle is also a good one for Town, because it’s continually stirring up responses, and talk is good.

Justin’s only post so far Today is to suggest that Telcontar and Oredigger going at each other would be a clever move for two Werewolves, because if one was exposed, the other might get some Townie cred. After following M2 I have been inoculated against trusting someone “just because” they’ve exposed a single Wolf.

In summary, there are a few pointers that leave me with the feeling that Justin is one of our lycanthropic brethren. Since we’re pre-Testerizer, I’m going to reserve my vote for a while. However, he’d make a good candidate for testing.

Test Justin Credible.

[MHaye]

Before I go on to Allwalker (which I won’t promise a deadline for delivery, simply because I don;t seem to be keeping them right now), I thought I’d do something else.

Lady and Gentlemen of the Village, the Amazing Technicolour Voting Chart!

So what’s it all about, I hear you breathlessly ask?

Simply put, it’s a presentation of the final votes cast in the game, colour coded for your convenience. Maybe someone can spot a voting pattern? It’s worth a try.

I’m not going to do an overview of Day 1, because everyone voted for November. Let this be a lesson to you. Voting to kill someone who isbn’t playing should be the last resort. Subbing in another player is better than Modkill, and Modkill is better than the Town burning a lynch on something that would give no information. Even a No-Lynch would be better than what happened.

Day 2.
The final votes for the test are found in [post=10867816]601[/post].Freudian Slit (9): Daphne Black, Fluiddruid, rexnervous, SoT&B, Justin Credible, Telcontar, Mahaloth, Elendil’s Heir, [Undecided] Adrian
Telcontar (2): Jimmy Chitwood, Allwalker
Seeker of Truth and Beauty (2): Freudian Slit, Ichini Sanshigo
Daphne Black (1): Oredigger77The final vote count for the lynch of Freudian Slit is in post [post=10882832]727[/post].Freudian Slit (15): Fluiddruid, Elendil’s Heir, Rexnervous, Jimmy Chitwood, Oredigger77, DaphneBlack, [Undecided] Adrian, Mahaloth, Ichini Sanshigo, Telcontar, SoT&B, Allwalker, MHaye, Justin Credible, Zeriel
Seeker of Truth and Beauty (1): Freudian Slit

Day 3.
The final votes for the Test are found in post [post=10904128]892[/post].SoT&B (10): Justin Credible, Daphne Black, Allwalker, MHaye, [Undecided] Adrian, Mahaloth, Telcontar, fluiddruid, Elendil’s Heir, Jimmy Chitwood
Telcontar (2): Rexnervous, Oredigger77
Elendil’s Heir (1): SoT&B
Mhaye (1): ZerielThe final Lynch vote count is in post [post=10910842]993[/post].SoT&B (10): Telcontar, fluiddruid, Jimmy Chitwood, [Undecided] Adrian, AllWalker, Justin Credible, Zeriel, Mahaloth, Mhaye, Elindil’s Heir
Elindil’s Heir (3): rexnervous, Oredigger77, DaphneBlack

Day 4.
Final Testerizer votes in post [post=10926376]1155[/post].Telcontar (6): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood, Zeriel, Oredigger77, rexnervous
Oredigger77 (5): Telcontar, Allwalker, Fluiddruid, DaphneBlack, Elendil’s HeirWhile the last lynch was in post [post=10933552]1226[/post]Elendil’s Heir (4): rexnervous, Oredigger77, Telcontar, DaphneBlack
Telcontar (3): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood
Oredigger77 (2): Fluiddruid, Allwalker
MHaye (1): Zeriel
DaphneBlack (1): Elendil’s HeirNoteworthy changes that did not happen; Elendil’s Heir changed his vote from DaphneBlack to Telcontar just one minute after the deadline. Had he been a little sharper about it, he could have switched before the deadline. This would, apparently, have secured a tie – except that I was lying in wait with the avowed intention of breaking a tie, and that my suspicions were pretty clearly favouring a lynch of Telcontar. If he’d switched, I would have revoted (if I could – there’s a 60 second flood control limiter on this board) or not unvoted. Voting to save one’s neck is a null tell in most cases, so EH might well have drawn little suspicion if his manoevre had succeeded.

(And is it only me who finds it funny that the vote was between Elendil’s Heir and Telcontar?)

The thing that is nagging at me is this. We know EH was online and posting, and he must have seen the voting was close. Did he just see too late, or did he hesitate because he and Telcontar are both Werewolves and he didn’t want to put the latter at risk?

I can’t see EH’s failure to vote as any indication of Telcontar’s alignment, because it’s plausible that a Wolf EH was protecting someone he saw as a more valuable Wolf.

[Telcontar]

@Zeriel

Are you actually reading what I write, man?

My case against MHaye is that he demonstrated PIS, and he’s usually a pretty on-the-ball player so when he makes a PIS slip I assume that means he’s scum and actually has perfect information–and regardless of the postgame discussion, last time I was in a game where he slipped like that he was scum, so I’m playing the odds.

Yes, I am reading what you write, I’m just totally unimpressed. Your point against Mhaye is ONE THING in ONE POST. Don’t you think you should have a little more to go on in a game in it’s fourth week?

@MHaye

The thing that is nagging at me is this. We know EH was online and posting, and he must have seen the voting was close. Did he just see too late, or did he hesitate because he and Telcontar are both Werewolves and he didn’t want to put the latter at risk?

I can’t see EH’s failure to vote as any indication of Telcontar’s alignment, because it’s plausible that a Wolf EH was protecting someone he saw as a more valuable Wolf.

Thanks for posting the vote count. I don’t seem to be at risk today so i’m reluctant to start a whole new conversation where none is needed, but I really think that cooperation between EH and I could have gotten someone else killed yesterday (not as last minute vote switching but by going after another person post test). If we were both wolves there would no reason to go after each other given that the town had only one mistake left.

Also thanks for the justin overview. I begin to lose track in such a long game. My test vote stands.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

Justin Credible (2): Telcontar, Mhaye
MHaye (1): Zeriel

Mhaye (1): Oredigger77

@Jimmy_Chitwood

test MHaye

Wrong color. Could you please clarify?

[Mahaloth]

Was my test the wrong color? I wanted to test MHaye also and posted it in post 1302.

test Mhaye

[rexnervous]

Since I feel like I have a rough (very, very rough) handle on the Testerizer, I’m less concerned about my test vote right now, since it will not necessarily lead to my lynch vote.

I don’t have the time to put into a full-fledged review, but am going with my initial take, because I think on face of it it’s at least a relatively safe play for the test - that is that anyone who voted for **EH **is town. I don’t think there are any tells in who voted for whom at what time during the day that I can see - and btw thanks **Oredigger **for the **EH **analysis and **MHaye **for the vote review and your other analysis. One can twist themselves into pretzels trying to logic their vote…so I’m just going to make some assumptions and go from there, both on the EH vote and a couple other things.

Assumptions

[ul]
[li]EH voters are safe[/li][li]Zeriel is a town rancher investigator[/li][li]Telcontar is a town rancher[/li][/ul]

That leaves me with 5 people: Allwalker, Justin, Jimmy, fluiddruid, Mahaloth

fluiddruid I reviewed last week and leaned town. However, I am really disconcerted by his lack of posting since then. But leave it as is.

Out of the 4 then, I don’t have much to go on.

There was one intriguing item brought up in Oredigger’s review - when **Jimmy **posted his suspicions back on Day 3 (I think, it’s around the 800 post count), he mentioned **EH **but counted him as low. But then **EH **jumped right back at Jimmy. A case of two wolves arguing with each other for distraction? There didn’t seem to be a whole lot of reason for **EH **to do that. Just saying…

But for now, I have to lean with MHaye’s review of Justin, and Daphne’s suspicion of the same. So, by a whisker over the others…

test Justin Credible

[Trepa_Mayfield]

[quote=“pedescribe, post:1310, topic:485692”]

Justin Credible (3): Telcontar, Mhaye, rexnervous
MHaye (2): Zeriel, Mahaloth
Mhaye (1): Oredigger77

@Mahaloth

Was my test the wrong color? I wanted to test MHaye also and posted it in post 1302.

test Mhaye

Apologies, I missed that one.

[rexnervous]

@rexnervous

So, by a whisker over the others…

heh, no pun intended

[Justin_Credible]

@rexnervous

That’s why I said it was my basic analysis, not final analysis. So what’s your take on, if there is a wolf in the mix, who it is and why?

Sorry, I was away most of yesterday and all of today. My current suspicions are you and Telcontar. Rex, you could have easily decided to vote for Tel to hide, hoping that he wouldn’t get lynched. A good move if it works, and it did. And you two have been awfully friendly toDay.
I also think there is something to what Mahaloth said about EH waiting just a bit too long to vote. I thought that as soon as I saw him do it. Maybe you two decided he could be sacrificed and that it would look really good on you to not vote for him.

As far as the lower-volume posters go (myself included), I’m not especially suspicious of anyone. I’m sure there is a wolf or maybe two in that crowd, but no one has pinged my radar more than anyone else. I’ll have to re-read some posts by Allwalker, Fluiddruid, and the other JC, because none of them have really stood out to me all that much so far.

I’d really like to see Rex or Tel tested, but i’m willing to vote for MHaye, since it looks like neither of them will get any votes toDay. If you test me, you’re testing another ordinary Rancher. Test me if you must, but I’d rather not waste toDay’s test.

[Telcontar]

@Justin_Credible

I’d really like to see Rex or Tel tested, but i’m willing to vote for MHaye, since it looks like neither of them will get any votes toDay.

I’ve already been tested. Just saying.

rex: I like your general analysis and am willing to uncouple my test/lynch votes if it looks like we have cause. I’m not sure if “innocent” will look distinct but at this point I think there’s still a good chance that “guilty” will look like something special.

[Justin_Credible]

@Telcontar

I’ve already been tested. Just saying.

rex: I like your general analysis and am willing to uncouple my test/lynch votes if it looks like we have cause. I’m not sure if “innocent” will look distinct but at this point I think there’s still a good chance that “guilty” will look like something special.

You’re right, my bad. I guess I was thinking more of the lynch when I wrote that, and not the test.

[Justin_Credible]

Before I forget, I’m going to go ahead and vote to test MHaye now.

test MHaye

[AllWalker]

I’m going to vote to
test Justin.

This is based on the low vote count, and the fact that he has a history of hounding on players who turn out to be innocent - Daphne, Seeker, FS and Zeriel, who is the closest thing we have to a living confirmed townie at the moment.

Not enough to base a lynch on, but enough to decide on a test.

[Mahaloth]

I’m not trying to distract us or draw attention to anything that isn’t important, but since it’s about 5 hours to the test and I don’t even feel the test is all that important, I thought I’d ask.

Is anyone putting a serious effort into solving the testerizer? I’ll be frank and admit I’m not, because I can’t get a read on it.

I don’t want to waste time discussing it since it seems fruitless, but has anyone come close to a theory or breakthrough?