So we have two players who have been “right” twice, myself and rexnervous. We have one player who has been wrong twice,** Mahaloth**. We have incomplete information on one player, Adrian II. We also have two wolves, meaning that at least one wolf has (probably) substantially contributed to the death of another.
We also have MHaye, who rather solidly contributed to the death of** Justin** and may have cracked the testerizer (on one hand) but has attracted the suspicion of known innocents (Zeriel). My read on him is innocent, but I suppose we don’t know that per se.
Hmm. I think it would be helpful if some of the less consistently vocal players voiced some of their suspicions. Mahaloth,** Jimmy**, and Adrian II in particular.
I have something else to throw out there, but I caution that it is based solely on “odds” and not on anything tangible in the game. And that is… (drum roll)
…the distribution of “experienced” players.
According to my notes (also noted in the Testerizer doc, which I am keeping up-to-date), we had 7 experienced (who self-identified) players at the start of the game (if you include **MHaye as a starter). Those would be:
**
Scuba_Ben
Freudian Slit
Oredigger
Zeriel
DaphneBlack
fluiddruid
MHaye
Now I believe we’re working off a 7/7/4 split. Which means that the wolves consist of 22% of the players. Apply that to the experienced set of players, and you would have 1.555 experienced players as part of the wolf faction. So the assumption would be that 1 or 2 wolves (probably 1) are experienced.
Now look at the results:
Scuba_Ben, Freudian Slit, DaphneBlack, and **Zeriel **are all dead. That leaves Oredigger, **fluiddruid **(now Undecided Adrian the II) and **MHaye **as living, experienced players. Of which 1 is very likely to be a wolf.
Based on two things **MHaye **did - the EH vote and figuring out the testerizer (assuming that is correct), I’d lean **MHaye **towards town.
So - that leaves fluiddruid (Adrian) and Oredigger. 1 of whom, simply playing the odds, is a wolf.
Playing the odds can be dangerous - so I’m just throwing it out there. Also, this is based on how everyone self-identified at the beginning, so if anyone who is experienced isn’t on my list, speak up
I am not following the logic here at all. If MHaye was a wolf, why would he reveal the Testerizer code, since nobody else at all was even close to getting it?
If you think the Testerizer code is incorrect, then I can see voting for MHaye, as you’d be saying “MHaye is misdirecting us”. But you say you agree that the code has been broken by MHaye.
Wow. I totally had it written down wrong about who “solved” the testerizer. I thought it was rex, for some reason.
:eek:
Well, I’ll unvote MHaye and totally am cool with it if you guys want to test me. I’m a townie, but if we really have the testerizer thing solved, it will show that.
OK, I agree that I need to voice my impressions of the current state of things and my suspicions.
First, again, really well done everyone.
The EH lynch was real close and the wolves certainly did not vote as a group on that. That doesn’t tell us much, would have been dumb anyway. A wolf voting for EH is unlikely, but possible.
MHaye’s testerizer idea seems to be correct (that was a remarkably well-reasoned post) and suddenly the numbers look real good for us. With the most likely starting distribution, if we refrain from lynching people which come up as town, we need to find the first wolf after three tests and the second after two more tests, taking the lynch into account. I think. Good odds, in any case.
We’re only in trouble in the unlikely case that it’s incorrect, because we might fail to lynch a wolf, and I don’t know how to 100% confirm the pattern before seeing a second wolf pattern. Too bad EH hasn’t been tested.
But it looks very solid since the pattern was correct in five tests with 50:50 odds, which has a probability of only 3% in a random distribution.
So, now for the decision who to test first… I don’t have any big suspicion at the moment. Oredigger was the only one not to vote for Justin Credible, but I think as scum he would have switched his vote over, since that wouldn’t have been especially suspicious and doesn’t leave a “permanent” record in the vote count analysis. It was also clear that it wouldn’t have an effect.
I don’t think rexnervous’s analysis has much bearing on that, though, there is much more guesswork involved than in the somewhat more firmly based numbers above.
Telcontar seemed suspicious to me when I was alive the last time, but definitely less so now, and his testerizer pattern looks good. So he’s probably the closest now to trusted townie status, along with MHaye.
Mahalot’s vote certainly was strange, but is very unlikely to be part of a strategy, since MHaye’s cred is deservedy very good.
But even with high confidence in the testerizer, I wouldn’t just accept getting myself tested without discussion, since town would lose information from the discussion and throw away one testing opportunity.
Well, my suspicions at least have been public record for the most part. I started with yourself, obviously, and I have allowed that to subside primarily because of your test result. I’m happy with the results of that. I have serious problems with some of your playstyle ideosyncracies, a cause for suspicion that led me to my next player of interest, MHaye. MHaye is a player who I really seriously think played a very anti-town style for the vast majority of the game. However, we don’t have a better theory for the testerizer than his, and it doesn’t seem at all likely that, all things considered, it would be a reasonable idea for one wolf to ensure the death of another by also giving town the key to the testerizer. So unless and until that’s disproven, I have to consider MHaye as fairly safe, despite the peculiarities of his early play (to avoid the appearance of a smudge here, specifically I refer to his couple of alignment “slips” and his dogged attacks on Zeriel, who obviously didn’t deserve them.
So, at this point, I’m starting almost fresh. fluiddruid struck me as a very good player when she was posting, which, I am aware, doesn’t suggest anything about her alignment. I thought she made several key pro-town contributions, however. The fact that she started a bandwagon going on Freudian Slit concerned me a bit, and there were a couple of fleeting impressions I had that she was playing a sleight of hand game with Elendil earlier. However, like I say, she’s a better player than I am so it’s hard for me to secondguess. With her gone I can’t say I’m particularly inclined to put her replacement in either category, so I’ll wait for Adrian mk II before I draw any conclusions. With one post to go on, I have very little feeling either way.
Of the remaining players, I think rexnervous has been consistently pro-town, so I at least would look beyond him. That leaves Oredigger, AllWalker, and Mahaloth.
I’m mainly interested in Oredigger and Mahaloth. Oredigger is interesting because as I leaf back through his posts I see a lot of contrarianism and a lot of sort of voting independence – votes for the record, ‘hypothetical’ arguments, things of that nature. The sort of thing that keeps you in the mix without committing you in any real sense, is what my more suspicious side tells me, but on the other hand, as was the case during the Seeker fiasco, I’m not really sure I’m picking up any real strong sense of consistent anti-town behavior (or anti-town omissions, which are probably more important given the way the game has gone thus far). Just… strange behavior. In a more specific vein, I’ll note that Daphne on reread expressed doubts about Oredigger several times and that when she was killed, Oredigger suggested a reason why she was killed - for encouraging town to talk. Not the most ironclad example of a misdirection, but something, maybe. In any event, relying mostly on the aforementioned “float like a butterfly” tactic, I’m suspicious. Not enough to hang my hat on as yet, because I think Mahaloth is a better option.
Mahaloth has been asked several times to please be a little more direct in outlining his or her reasoning behind several posts (most recently just above; also during the early day discussion in the previous day). This is an indication of caution, but, when the requests are ignored, I think that’s an indication of a much stronger desire to keep one’s head down. This is exactly what Elendil did. I think that such extreme hesitation – which is couple much of the time with hedging language about “maybe changing later” or “I’m really considering changing my vote to…” is an indication of an attempt to build a defense (to say nothing of the post that said “don’t think I’m a wolf if I don’t get back soon enough.” Why would you be so concerned with being able to defend yourself if you weren’t waiting for it to happen? Also, to be blunt, a freaking lot of Mahaloth’s posts have been complete wastes – night posts, posts just pre- or just post- the critical voting periods, questions about technicalities, and all that. There’s not a lot to go on, and what there is to go on is very cautious and nowhere clearly pro-town.
Finally, and this probably means nothing, but depending on how good of a wolf you think Justin was (I think not so fantastic), that final little back-and-forth between the two of them could be seen as a pretty transparent reverse-reverse ploy. But, you know, it could also be a wolf trying to stir the pot.
OK, so I want to address issues with my posts soon, but I’m busy right now.
Also, I’m not sure when I will be able to post tomorrow, but I should be able to post some kind of analysis before tomorrow night(all small “d’s” and “n’s”.
I don’t think a vast majority of my posts have been fluff or Night posts. I think that the last 2 Days have been slower, in terms of discussion, for everyone. I’m not sure who to suspect anymore. I used to suspect Telcontar a lot, but have seen my suspicions drop in the last Day. I suspected Mhaye, also, but as everyone has just reminded me, he potentially solved the testerizer.
Anyway, let me review some things and put together a suspect list.
I guess you can test me, too, if you want. I don’t mind and if MHaye is right, I’ll come out “clean” anyway. If MHaye has solved the testerizer, I am 100% safe from lynching and am only at risk of Night death.
Hopefully we’ve figured out the Testerizer but I don’t think that MHaye is necessarily a townie for doing it. Whoever figured it out would get confirmed townie status so a wolf figuring it out basically can guarantee that they wouldn’t be lynched.
I don’t think we need to test MHaye any time soon though. I think we should keep the possibility in the back of our minds though when we get down to the end. Right now we have ‘confirmed’ town in Tel so I think it’s a good time to start following his lead a bit. I put confirmed in quotes because until we test another wolf it’s just theory.
I think its time that we look again to going after the quiet players. To that extent I think we should give Adrian/fluid a pass at least for toDay because it appears that Fluid was really busy with work and that would explain the limited participation.
With fluid/Adrian and MHaye having reasons not to be look at too closely toDay the next lowest volume poster is Jimmy. I’m not voting that direction yet but that is where I’m going to focus my first reread.
I notice that no one has cast even a tentative test vote this week. Not shocking, it’s early, but I do so enjoy watching people i’m suspicious of argue. Brings out alliances etc.
Anyway, to get things moving in a more focused manner: We have a distinct shortage of information on Adrian II. I honestly can’t remember much of what fluiddruid was like, they hadn’t fully participated for quite awhile before they were subbed. A reread makes me somewhat suspicious, but it’s hard to capture the in the moment feeling. There’s something to be said for testing Adrian II to avoid a situation where they end up flying below the radar right to the end. Also, taking rex’s analysis of at least one experienced player as a wolf (meaning at least one of Oredigger77, Mhaye, and Fluiddruid (now Adrian II), fluiddruid is one of the most suspicious of that set.
What do people think of fluiddruid’s pre subbing record?
I did an analysis of **fluiddruid **right before he stopped posting, more or less. At that time, I had him leaning slightly town.
Here’s my take on where we stand - if you are pro-town and are not actively posting analysis, thoughts and otherwise substantive posts, and frequently, you are hurting us.
Despite my “look at the odds” take on experienced players, I don’t know if I feel comfortable enough with that to base a test vote on it. Yet.
I need to go back and review more, but I will place a test vote now:
test Mahaloth
This is based on his vote of **MHaye **just upthread, and that on a skim I tend to agree with Jimmy Chitwood’s analysis
Jimmy presents a good case against Mahaloth but:
1.) I’m suspicious of Jimmy as well (fairly low participation, rarely stuck his neck out until recently).
2.) Mahaloth’s voting to test Mhaye and then changing his mind when it’s pointed out that Mhaye came up with the testerizer theory is too sloppy to look scummy (to me at least).
Having said that, Mahaloth is the only one i have as being “wrong” twice.
Also, I’m torn on the experienced player question. On one hand, it’d be really odd if pede didn’t toss the wolves a bone and give them an experienced leader. On the other…zeriel should have died days ago so I could have died last night. If we’re right about the testerizer, the wolves almost can’t win at this point. It’s a newbie mistake to let innocents sit on the table, and the wolves have been making it.
I understand the feeling that my host body was flying under the radar lately, but as that was apparently not for game-related reasons I hope it doesn’t count too much against me and especially my new self.
Since my last posts, suspicion towards Mahalot certainly has increased, though. He hasn’t answered Telcontar’s question at all, Jimmy makes a good point about similar playstile to EH, and the post Mahalot did write was not too short but seems rather evasive with little content.
It can’t hurt to put at least a bit of pressure towards the promised analysis, therefore
Test Mahalot
NETA: Telcontar, I think the role assignment was random, rexnervous’s analysis wouldn’t make much sense otherwise as well.
Both variants suggest that one experienced wolf is likely, but with both it is far from certain. I agree we should keep it in mind, but for the moment there are perhaps better ways than this “metagamey” sort of decision.
