Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split [Signups--In progress]

The Game Room
1421

OK, here I go. I’m no genius, but this is what I have currently. If I miss any questions directed at me, please re-ask them. I am not dodging anything, but may have missed your post. :slight_smile:

I have been busy all day today and haven’t had a chance to post much. I’m not surprised about collecting a couple test votes. I mean, I made the goof of not realizing MHaye was the one who helped us with the testerizer. I really did think it was rexnervous and if I have to be tested, I’m not totally sure that’s a bad thing. If we test a townie(like me) and it does come back correctly according to MHaye’s solution, then we will be more likely to correctly lynch a wolf. It’s always a bit of a guess, and eliminating me(or any townie) is not particularly bad. It means I will probably die in the Night, but it will show that you can trust me for the two days before the lynch. Anyway, I would prefer not to be tested because I know I’m a townie and getting a positive hit on wolf would be massively helpful(obviously), I am not going to make a whole thing of it.

Now, over the past two Days, I’ve discovered that my primary lead suspects are most likely not wolves. Telconatar, who I currently have removed from my suspect list, has passed the testerizer(I think) and I just get a better sense from his posting. Viewing him as a townie, I see that his aggressive play has helped far more than hurt. If he’s a wolf, congratulations to him for fooling me. 

My second suspicion was** MHaye.** If he has solved the testerizer, he is probably townie, though I’m not convinced that this is the case completely. Look how quickly I was called out for test voting him! I admit, my testing of him was a goof, but I’m not totally certain that it eliminates him from wolfiness. However, he is no longer a main suspect of mine.

I’m having a very hard time getting a read at this point. I assume we are down to about 2 wolves left(possibly 1 if only 3 existed). Because of this, I think the wolf/wolves are walking on egg shells and making it very difficult to get a read.

Having said that, from my most recent suspect list, I still suspect **f****luiddruid/Adrian for a couple reasons. I am only going off fluiddruid’**s time, of course. We have to go back to when fluid was posting more. She never posted a ton, and many of her posts weren’t all that great, but she/he was one of the first people to push for testing and killing Freudian Slit, and actually tried to convince people to not vote for Elendil Heir.

Read the post here, where the suspicion of Freudian Slit began:

Post 462, from Day Two

This was all on Day Two, but went unnoticed to me until I re-read fluiddruid’s postings from the beginning of Day One. I know it is not a ton of evidence, but it is something and that’s all I have right now.

Anyway, it is very hard to get a read on who is a wolf at this point, but I will vote to test:

test fluiddruid/Adrian

1422

Where do you see fluiddruid defending elendil’s heir (or do you mean by implication, going after FS as a substitute)? I didn’t catch that post on my read-through.

1423

I can also see nothing wrong with the quote you posted, Mahalot.
Of course the accusation is not firmly based on facts, but that was rather early in the game and doesn’t surprise me.
But fluiddruid definitely gave an explanation of her votes there, which still sounds reasonable to me (without rereading FS’s posts now).
There was also nothing underhanded going on, she just came out strongly and in the open.

Just going after a townie in itself, especially on the second day, is not a very good scum tell. The accusation of trying to protect EH is more serious, but you didn’t cite that one, do you have a link for that?

(Weird situation, being forced to ask for a cite for something “I” did…)

1424

By implication…sorry if that wasn’t clearer.

And Adrian, there is an “h” at the end of my name. It’s Mahaloth.

1425

Whoops, sorry. At least I was consistent :slight_smile:

1426

I’m a little concerned that there has been so little discussion, if we were about to test a wolf you’d think the other wolf would at least have voted :-P. Open to persuasion but for the moment:
test Mahaloth

1427

Well, we have to test someone.

Test Mahaloth

What if he turns up alphabetical? Do we skip the lynch toDay, or fire randomly into the crowd?

(Of course, phrasing it like that makes my opinion clear, as well as my tendancy to mix metaphors)

1428

Not necessarily - the wolves’ only chance now is to keep as low a profile as possible.

AllWalker, I don’t think we should lynch someone we haven’t tested, now that we’ve figured that damn thing out.

1429

Yes, if I’m tested and the testerizer is aphabetically based, this * is* going to happen. I’m not sure what is going to be the best course of action.

Telcontar, just take this as a hypothetical. If I test as a townie(which I should), is this when you suggest not lynching?

Or is it still better to try and lynch on the off shot we could essentially win the game(or come close)?

By the way, what do other people think right now? This Day is the quietest yet.

1430

The way I figure it there are 2 wolves in this group, which means 6 townies. At this point we have 1.5 mislynches. A no lynch costs us ½ of a mislynch. I think we should hold off lynching for a couple of Days.

Assuming our current theory on the tester is correct we have one confirmed townie. This gives us a pool for the scum to hide in of 2/7 if the testee comes up town we would be faced with a pool for the lynch of 2/6. Assuming the wolves aren’t idiots they will kill one of the confirmed so we will still be at 2/6 for the next Day’s test again assuming the test comes up town we would be faced with a lynch of 2/5. Again the wolves would kill confirmed town and the third Day would find us testing 2/5 and if the testee came up town we would go into the lynch 2/4. If we passed one more time we would find our selves at lynch or lose and going into the tested with a group of 2/4 assuming another town test we would have a pool of 2/3. I think those odds are pretty good.

Two things that will help us out would be not testing randomly and going after the most suspicious. This would give us the most information and in the worst case keep us with two confirmed townies.

1431

Mahaloth (4): rexnervous, [Undecided] Adrian the II, Telcontar, Allwalker
[Undecided] Adrian the II (1): Mahaloth

1432

It is a little disappointing that the most analysis that we’ve seen today has been my list of suspicions, considering that that analysis was a little bit of an idea dump and not so much me being totally gung-ho about going after Mahaloth. This is the sum and substance of our convictions at this point? Ideally, somebody would have maybe presented an alternative to my response, but I guess mine was so fantastic that everyone just got in line. I don’t want to not vote at all, obviously, and my feelings are known, but it’s a shame that there’s not at least discussion of another perspective out there.

Everybody being open to persuasion is good in principle, but, you know, there will be presumably be attempts underway to persuade us in the wrong direction, in which case a little conversation becomes imperative.

We still have another day. It’s a shame I’m just making the lead more insurmountable at this point, but I’m not sure that it’s better for me to vocally abstain from voting than to just get my most confident vote on the books, though, so

Test Mahaloth

1433

I’m the one being voted for and I have to say that, yes, it appears so. I’m not sure if people are afraid of dying themselves, or what it is, but my one goof-up about MHaye doesn’t seem enough to warrant a test or a lynch.

Having said that, I’m hard pressed to point any fingers. Most of my primary suspicions have died or are probably townies. The wolves, despite losing the last two lynches, have played a good game.

I’m assuming I’m going to be tested tomorrow, though. Oh well.

1434

If we have solved the riddle of the Testerizer (and I suspect that we have) then once we get a read from the machine, we should decide whether to lynch the tested or not.

The Testerizer can, if used properly, build up a group of players who we know or believe are Town-aligned. The people in the other group (the unknown pool) are those who we should be considering for lynching. The Werewolves can only be hiding in that pool, you see.

Up to now I’ve been against a no lynch because we don’t get information. However, we’re now getting information out of the Testerizer without a lynch. Furthermore, it’s an information source that cannot be eliminated from the game, a fact which has some implications for game balance that I haven’t fully evaluated yet. Thus, at this point, by skipping a lynch or two, we gain an extra single use of the Testerizer, thus enabling us to shrink the unknown pool without risking shrinking the numbers of Town.

I’ll be back after I’ve eaten some tea with a vote for testing.

1435

… unless we’re wrong, of course. In which case no lynch is a death warrant.

As Telcontar, I think, said earlier, that must put you in quite a bind being not entirely certain whether we’ve cracked the test results.

1436

At this point i think we should hold off on the no lynch. A shot in the dark might still hit and the pool of potential suspects isn’t really all that large.

I completely disagree about the wolves. They could attempt to slip under the radar, or they could be as blatant as humanly possible. I think it’s entirely possible that Mhaye is a wolf (in fact the more I think about his voting around the death of** EH** the more I suspect him).

Hmm, if Mahaloth ** tested as innocent I’d probably want to lynch Jimmy, so I should probably be voting to test Jimmy rather than Mahaloth. I outlined my suspicion of him awhile ago, but mostly it comes down to 1.) It made sense for the wolves to be quiet before and it currently makes sense for them to be vocal and 2.) Jimmy was quiet before and is becoming vocal now.
untest Mahaloth
test Jimmy**

As of right now i’d be happy to lynch the other if the test shows one to be clean.

1437

Now we’re getting somewhere.

Of course, it isn’t true that I was all that quiet before, you know, if you care to document it, but at least the friggin’ needle is moving.

1438

So, here’s the full Technicolour Vote Chart, with new Day 5 and added colours for previous Days.

Day 2.
The final votes for the test are found in [post=10867816]601[/post].Freudian Slit (9): Daphne Black, Fluiddruid, rexnervous, SoT&B, Justin Credible, Telcontar, Mahaloth, Elendil’s Heir, [Undecided] Adrian
Telcontar (2): Jimmy Chitwood, Allwalker
Seeker of Truth and Beauty (2): Freudian Slit, Ichini Sanshigo
Daphne Black (1): Oredigger77The final vote count for the lynch of Freudian Slit is in post [post=10882832]727[/post].Freudian Slit (15): Fluiddruid, Elendil’s Heir, Rexnervous, Jimmy Chitwood, Oredigger77, DaphneBlack, [Undecided] Adrian, Mahaloth, Ichini Sanshigo, Telcontar, SoT&B, Allwalker, MHaye, Justin Credible, Zeriel
Seeker of Truth and Beauty (1): Freudian Slit

Day 3.
The final votes for the Test are found in post [post=10904128]892[/post].SoT&B (10): Justin Credible, Daphne Black, Allwalker, MHaye, [Undecided] Adrian, Mahaloth, Telcontar, fluiddruid, Elendil’s Heir, Jimmy Chitwood
Telcontar (2): Rexnervous, Oredigger77
Elendil’s Heir (1): SoT&B
Mhaye (1): ZerielThe final Lynch vote count is in post [post=10910842]993[/post].SoT&B (10): Telcontar, fluiddruid, Jimmy Chitwood, [Undecided] Adrian, AllWalker, Justin Credible, Zeriel, Mahaloth, Mhaye, Elindil’s Heir
Elindil’s Heir (3): rexnervous, Oredigger77, DaphneBlack

Day 4.
Final Testerizer votes in post [post=10926376]1155[/post].Telcontar (6): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood, Zeriel, Oredigger77, rexnervous
Oredigger77 (5): Telcontar, Allwalker, Fluiddruid, DaphneBlack, Elendil’s HeirWhile the last lynch was in post [post=10933552]1226[/post]Elendil’s Heir (4): rexnervous, Oredigger77, Telcontar, DaphneBlack
Telcontar (3): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood
Oredigger77 (2): Fluiddruid, Allwalker
MHaye (1): Zeriel
DaphneBlack (1): Elendil’s Heir
Day 5.
Final Testerizer votes in post [post=10948718]1330[/post].Justin Credible (5): Telcontar, Mhaye, rexnervous, AllWalker, Jimmy Chitwood
MHaye (4): Zeriel, Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Oredigger77While the final lynch vote was in post [post=10954553]1371[/post].Justin Credible (7): Telcontar, Mahaloth, Allwalker, Zeriel, Mhaye, Rexnervous, Jimmy Chitwood
Mhaye (1): Oredigger77
Zeriel (1): Justin Credible

Looking at the lynch of Day 4 in the light of Day 5’s knowledge, we now know that at least one Werewolf was voting for Telcontar; and we also believe that Telcontar’s Test results are those of a Townsman.

For Telcontar to be a Werewolf, he would have to be that special kind of Wolf known as a Godfather - a Werewolf who appears to the detective as a Townsperson, and not as what he truly is. That role is incredibly valuable to the Werewolves. The only reason for a Werewolf to vote for a Godfather type like that is in the late game to gain huge amounts of cred (for doing something that Werewolves would never do). But it wasn’t late enough to risk that.

Basically, I don’t think Justin would have kept his vote on Telcontar if Telcontar was a Godfather type.

(The only other reason to vote for the Godfather is if the player makes a crosspost, or some slip that makes their true alignment quite clear.

Splitting the Difference--Dead Thread for The Split
1439

Mahaloth (5): rexnervous, [Undecided] Adrian the II, Telcontar, Allwalker, Jimmy Chitwood
[Undecided] Adrian the II (1): Mahaloth
Jimmy Chitwood (1): Telcontar

1440

It’s really hard to document “quiet,” though if you want to document “loud” I’d be happy to see it.