Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split [Signups--In progress]

I’ve been trying to decide who to have tested. While it would be nice to get a pair of colours in reverse alphabetical order, there is a sense in which it doesn’t really matter. After all, if we get a town read, that adds to the confirmed pool.

I had an undirected, somewhat amorphous suspicion of Fluiddruid late Yesterday, based on nothing more than a gut feeling, and the way she stirred up the pot against Freudian Slit on Day 2.

That’s worth a test vote while I go back and see if I can substantiate the case.

Test Undecided Adrian the Fluid Druid.

I think this is the real reason that the town has settled down. There is a feeling at least on my end that who we choose doesn’t really matter. While it would be great to wrap the game up in the next two Days .

I’ve been meaning to do a reread of Justin and I haven’t gotten around to it but I think that for the test I’ll just vote for him. Worst case scenario he is town and we have to no lynch toDay.

Vote Justin

I don’t know that that would be any easier, frankly. Obviously all of my posts are all still present in the thread; I guess if I have to justify something in the future I will do so then. I’m just not sure where this shift occurred where I went from passive to active the way you say.

Day 1 was just a lynch of a lurker, and as far back as day 2 I was doing the same things I’ve been trying to do lately, which is question everybody about their prior decisions and statements; see, e.g., post #555. Then I was away for a bit, as explained in # 823, and then I got on your case and stayed on it until you came back apparently town, which pretty much takes us up to today.

We already killed Justin, Oredigger. Presumably you’re talking about me.

Mahaloth (5): rexnervous, [Undecided] Adrian the II, Telcontar, Allwalker, Jimmy Chitwood
[Undecided] Adrian the II (2): Mahaloth, MHaye
Jimmy Chitwood (1): Telcontar

Votes for a dead player are not legal.

And you have me voting twice.

If i’m allowed to do that, give both to Jimmy :stuck_out_tongue:

[QUOTE=pedescribe;10969396Votes for a dead player are not legal.[/QUOTE]

Sorry I’m an idiot. I had JC in my notes and instead of typing that I decided to get more personal but was too lazy to double check Jimmy or Justin.

Vote Jimmy

My suspicions of Fluiddruid, which I mentioned above, started off as a gut feeling in my overview of posts made by Justin Credible. I remember thinking that one or two of his posts showed arguments of greater sophistication than one might normally expect from a player in their first game, and wondering if he was (a) a Werewolf, and (b) getting a bit of behind the scenes coaching from a veteran who happened to be a Werewolf. My candidates for Werewolf were Fluid, Zeriel and Oredigger plus possibly Telcontar (who writes as if he’s played before, although I got the feeling the places he’s played had very different playstyles).

After Justin’s test I put the quuestion aside until after the lynch. It became a bit moot when Fluiddruid was subbed out though, which is why I held off saying anything before Nightfall Yesterday.

Then this Morning, when we woke to the fact that Telcontar was not dead, my suspicion flared again. A veteran Werewolf would know that, in this game, Zeriel is not a threat to them - and in fact might have been manipulated into aiding their cause. The biggest threat is Telcontar, because he is as nearly confirmed a Townsperson as we can get in this game. So why didn’t they kill him?

One of two, mutually exclusive reasons.[ol][li]Fluiddruid was the veteran player, and once she subbed out the remaining Wolves (both[sup]1[/sup] of whom would be relative new players) didn’t realise how much of a threat confirmed Townspeople are in the late game.[/li][li]Telcontar is a Godfather (or whatever you call it in a game with Werewolves).[/li][li]The Werewolves are so far ahead (at least, they think so) that they don’t need to worry about whether we can catch them.[/ol]I want to test Adrian simply in order to dismiss the first option.[/li]

[sup]1[/sup] I’m working on the belief that we started with 4 Werewolves. I think that’s common ground, but if anyone wants me to explain why I think that please ask.

There’s a lot wrong with this post.

I’m assuming you mean Justin showed greater sophistication. I didn’t see any evidence of that myself, but even assuming you’re right one need only assume that 1.) four inexperienced wolves managed to coach each other or 2.) another experienced player is a wolf (you, me, rex, oredigger77 and fluiddruid all fit that description). It’s only worth focusing on fluiddruid if your next point holds:

Given that we should already have heard the test results, it’s really rather late to be making this case now.

Due to his uncontested role claim, **Zeriel **was also a (nearly) confirmed innocent. He should have died days ago one of the better arguments for my innocence is that I would have toasted him; it’s a clear by the book play). Also we aren’t certain we’ve decoded the testerizer, so killing me (a tested villager) gives the town more slightly more information than killing Zeriel (an untested villager) given that we’re both very likely innocent in the eyes of the town.

**Zeriel **had a lot of farmer-rancher alignment information that died with him. This would have been damn useful after we killed the second to last wolf (as the last would have a known farmer-rancher alignment). This is why he really should have reported some results.

This is the big conclusion. I really think Zeriel was the more natural wolf kill last night, so your conclusions don’t hold. The real question is why he didn’t die before now. I’m betting the wolves just didn’t realize who obvious** Zeriel’s** innocence would be as we turned up an absence of other power roles (thus making it very clear that** Ich** would be balanced by a rancher equivalent). Given that we were promised only weak power roles, I’d be shocked if there was a godfather type figure in this game, it would be very very strong.

I could write a rather long answer to Mhaye’s post, but I would just repeat Tel’s points.

The timing of it really is odd.

Due to the delayed test results, I decided to write my next post in the style of a form letter as I’ll have to disappear for a bit. Please fill in the blanks accordingly.

In light of the positive/negative results of the testerizering of Mahaloth, I think it is relatively clear that we should/should not lynch him. This is good/bad news for Jimmy, who was both my top remaining suspicion and the one chosen by random dice roll* for my next lynch target. In that spirit,

lynch Mahaloth/Jimmy

*dice roll actually excel random number generator. Choice set only included those players who are not clearly innocent and excepted Mahaloth, who is now of known status as a werewolf/townsperson.

I have to say that when I read the Dawn post, my gut reaction was “Why isn’t Telcontar dead?” You were the obvious kill, to my mind.

I note your claim that you’d have been arguing to kill Zeriel Days ago. Well, I’d have been arguing for your death last Night, to reduce the unknown pool. Guess that means I’m not a Wolf either, eh?

You make a good point about Zeriel’s information potentially crippling the Wolves once they’re down to one player. I’ve always suspected that the Wolves hoped to use it to provoke Town-on-Town violence though. Now that Zeriel is dead with onnly one investigation revealed, that fear is over.

The issue with the Godfather is why I didn’t post earlier Today. I see the Testerizer as a slightly more powerful version of a regular Detective. The chance of not deciphering the code is equivalent to the possibility that the Detective dies without revealing information. Once outed/solved, though, the Testerizer has a big advantage over the Detective.

The Werewolves can’t kill it.

We are guaranteed a read of coded information every Day that the game lasts. Once that code is broken, we have the past information at our fingertips and the surety of more to come.

A basic setup of 14 vanilla Town v 4 Werewolves and no power roles whatever favours the Wolves. Replace one vanilla Town with a Detective and it’s pretty close to balanced. Make that detective unkillable and separate from the 14 players, and you have a significant imbalance in the game in the Town’s favour. A Godfather would eliminate that.

Your point that Zeriel and Ichini’s roles could push the game even further towards Town makes me think the Godfather role is more, not less likely.

As for who I was referring to in the first paragraph of my first post, of course it was Justin. Who else would it be?Anyone who says Fluiddruid is obviously skimming.

And regarding the time? “Better late than never.” (Prepares a royalty claim for Pedescribe.)

Mahaloth (4): rexnervous, [Undecided] Adrian the II, Allwalker, Jimmy Chitwood
[Undecided] Adrian the II (2): Mahaloth, MHaye
Jimmy Chitwood (2): Telcontar, Oredigger77

Gah! I feel stupid.
Cerulean
Fuchsia
for Mahaloth.

Uh, is Telcontar’s vote to lynch even going to count since he forgot to put the color in it?

I assume I am being tested, as the noon deadline passed 3 hours ago. Is this right?

Ignore my question about the test; it was simulposted to peds.

Oh, and I came out alphabetical. I told you I was a townie.

Like I said before I think our best bet is to hold off and shrink the pool before we take a shot at the non-tested.

Vote No Lynch

That is the first time I’ve do that hope my coloring is correct.

I already thought your color chart post was a little strange, then I read your earlier post while I was sitting in class, so I didn’t have the time to respond right away, but those and the above post represent a bizarre and frankly preposterous line of reasoning. It’s very strange that you’re continuing this particular stream of consciousness despite the complete disconnect from the discussion taking place in the rest of the game. It makes me wonder just what win condition you’re working toward fulfilling.

You have started from the initial premise “What if Telcontar is the godfather?” You have not justified that assumption. Everything that followed from that assumption amounts to nothing more than a flight of fancy, in my opinion. Your logic regarding Zeriel is inconcrete at best, and your speculation about Justin and the veteran werewolf is an exercise in question-begging.

It’s not even clear what you’re arguing for, either. You keep musing and musing about godfathers and two-pronged analyses, but you haven’t backed it up with your vote. Why aren’t you voting to lynch Telcontar?

I’m not sure just what it is that you’re working toward, but you better hope you have that testerizer code cracked, because it’s about the only thing that looks reasonably pro-town about you at the moment.

A few quick thoughts - I’m rather booked right now so can’t do any in-depth analysis until probably tomorrow nite (in fact, I had to ask to be subbed out of the new Mafia game).

  1. Someone (I believe Telcontar) lumped me in with experienced players. Not the case. THis is my first ever game, on- or off-line

  2. Gut instinct is there is no Godfather. This is a newbie game, and the moderator specifically said that any powers were minor. To me - again, with no experience - a Godfather role is not minor

  3. I will take, for now, Mahaloth’s test results as a townie indicator

  4. I’m fine with no lynching toDay. Someone can explain the math behind whether or not this is a good idea, but on the face of it (assuming we have cracked the code) let’s sit back, see what the wolves do, and then test another

My vote wasn’t meant to be serious (it’s a bit of a chose your own adventure post). Now it is though:
lynch jimmy

So, the math works like this:
Today 8 players: 2 wolves, 6 villagers (two of whom are “known innocents”). villagers can lynch one villager by mistake.

if we don’t lynch
Today 7 players: 2 wolves, 5 villagers (two of whom are “known innocents”). villagers can lynch one villager by mistake.

So waiting increases the probability that a randomly lynched villager will be a wolf (from 2/6 to 2/5) without costing us our mistake.

Reasons not to wait:
This game is dying. We should try to wrap it up soon before the villagers all wander off.

Final votes are usually fairly split (not just two people in a run off but also random votes flying). having an extra villager decreases the impact of random votes.

I don’t want to die and I figure that i have a 2/5 chance of dying tonight (Mahaloth also has a 2/5 chance, and there’s a 1/5 chance the wolves do something random).

The odds are actually a bit different than I stated. I’m relatively confident that **rex **and **oredigger77 **are innocent. I know I am. the testerizer suggests Mahaloth is. that means that 2 of the 4 remaining players are wolves. Pretty good odds, and i’m happy firing into the crowd to see what i hit. Jimmy has bugged me for a few days and I have this paranoid fantasy in which both he and mhaye are wolves. I’m impatient and I want to find out if i’m right.

Voting to lynch without even a reason. Seems like at some point I remember somebody telling me that was pretty base behavior. Some kind of elvish name, I think.

Anyway, it won’t speed anything up any, but I suppose impatience is a reason of a sort…

But do you have a case you can summarize about Jimmy?