Connecticut is a known bellwether state - as a native Nutmeger I’ll take that as a complement - my wife and I worked hard to win the primary here in CT for Obama. And, luckily for us, it paid off because it looks like our guy is going to get his chance at the White House!
Carter also won WV in 1980, and Dukakis in 1988.
Hillary really isn’t saying anything. It’s like saying a Republican can’t win the White House without winning Utah.
Only since 2000 has WV swung red, and really doesn’t mean much. For a few votes in Florida in 2000, and Ohio in 2004, the Dems would have won each time without WV…
If you want a real bellweather, Missouri’s the place to look. It’s voted for the winner in every election from 1904 to 2004, except 1956.
Connecticut’s failed to be a bellweather more often than that, just in the past two elections. (Which you’d expect, now that they’re a reliably Dem state.)
Connecticut is a state that doesn’t like change much…but one thing we really like is corrupt Governors! Roland went to jail and no one liked Weiker, so when Joe Lieberman ran as Independant and won - everybody saw that Connecticut didn’t like change and it stuck to it’s guns by re-electing him. For this election you can see it’s going against the board in New England and against the Clintons…I think not winning CT really shocked Hillary.
This article notes a “race chasm” at work in the Dem primaries so far: Obama does best in those states that are heavily black (where the black vote might be 50% or more of the Dem vote) and those states that are almost all white (racial politics not being much of a factor there), and worst in those states that are above 6% and below 17% black.
Based on comments in this thread, however, I don’t think it’s going to work out that way in WV. An exception that proves the rule.
Ah, something upon which the master speaks. And keeps speaking until he finally gets it right.
Well, you know, you can’t prove a negative — and I can prove it.
While listening to NPR on the way to work this morning, I heard a BBC World Service reporter ask a West Virginian woman why Obama can’t win. She responded “Because he is black.” (Sorry, no cite)
Heh…I’m originally from Newark, Delawafre. I’m NEVER going back there, but thats more from personal reasons than anything else. But Delaware? Its saving grace is that its not West Virginia…or New Jersey.
However, it is Maryland.
::d&r::
I just got back from doing my part in keeping WV from mattering. I voted for Obama. An unscientific survey of the yard signs on my way to voting would seem to indicate a landslide for Obama. Sadly that’s just my precinct. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for a better than expected statewide showing tonight.
Then why not post some poll numbers from Missouri so we can judge for ourselves? (Yes, I know as well as you why you haven’t).
The latest MO SUSA’s (from electoral-vote.com):
Obama 42, McCain 50
Clinton 47, McCain 46
That remains to be seen, or else it wouldn’t be necessary even to bring it up, hmm?
Indeed, which is why no one is discussing that here - except in terms of how the backroom dealers who will decide the nomination will take electability into account. Yes, that does matter, I hope you can agree.
:rolleyes:
I already asked you not to post fiction and ascribe it to me. When the time arrives when you can be bothered to actually *read what I’m telling you * before dismissing it, *do * let me know. :rolleyes:
I knew nothing of West Virginia until this primary and the basic gist I’m getting from the media is that a significant proportion of them are prejudiced against AAs and ignorant and uneducated because of poverty and a tragic past.
Doesn’t this reduce Hillary’s appeal for fence-sitters (who don’t want to think of themselves as racists) if she wins thanks to racially insensitive demographic groups and it is portrayed as such in the media (as it is today)?
It’s looks like Clinton is getting on her knees. I’m watching live primary coverage and she is mentioning, very clearly - "Please got to my website and show your support W.W.W. dot H.I.L.L.A.R.Y. C.L.I.N.T.O.N. dot C.O.M. " She needs money is a big bad way!
I wonder if people in West Virginia are looking at the exit polls and statistics regarding “reason for voting” and wondering to themselves why is it so skewed…?
I suspect my fellow WV-ians interested enough to examine such things already know why they are the way they are.
Once, again, she’s lost her mind. I await the flood.
I don’t want her out just yet. When she leaves the race we all know it will be to go down to Mexico, raise a mercenary army, and invade, and if we can delay her departure just a few months it will give more time to fortify the Rio Grande.
The real action tonight isn’t in WV, where Obama’s getting clobbered but it doesn’t matter.
The real action tonight is in MS-01, where Travis Childers, the Dem in the race, appears to be about to pick up a House seat in an extremely red district.
With just over half the precincts reporting, Childers leads by 54-46%.
If the Dems win this one, the GOP is well and truly fucked. If they can’t hold onto seats like this one, they’re in trouble across the map.