What are McCain's chances

[RickJay]

@BrainGlutton

His leading economic advisors as Chicago-School, Friedrich von Hayek’s and Milton Friedman’s school of thought in economics. That’s what the article is about.

I assume what you meant to type there was that “His leading advisors are advocates of…” or some such thing. But what you said was that BARACK OBAMA was too much of an economic libertarian, not some people who’ve consulted with him. The fact that Obama may hire as advisors some Chicago economists - and you know as well as I do he also has economic advisors who are not Freidman-school economists - does not make Barack Obama a libertarian, as even a cursory glance at his platform proves. Unless you’re saying his entire (obviously centrist) economic platform is a lie, and the man’s running the most dishonest Presidential campaign since the 19th century, where’s the evidence Obama’s “too libertarian”?

He might be “Too libertarian” if you’re a really extreme socialist - like, I dunno, Naomi Klein, to name one. For all her bluster, her entire case that Obama is an “Economic libertarian” is that Austan Goolsbee is one of his advisors. And by her own admission, he’s, um, not actually really extreme in his views.

Look at this paragraph:

[QUOTE=Naomi Klein]
Another of Obama’s Chicago fans is 39-year-old billionaire Kenneth Griffin, CEO of the hedge fund Citadel Investment Group. Griffin, who gave the maximum allowable donation to Obama, is something of a poster boy for an unbalanced economy. He got married at Versailles and had the after-party at Marie Antoinette’s vacation spot (Cirque du Soleil performed)–and he is one of the staunchest opponents of closing the hedge-fund tax loophole. While Obama talks about toughening trade rules with China, Griffin has been bending the few barriers that do exist. Despite sanctions prohibiting the sale of police equipment to China, Citadel has been pouring money into controversial China-based security companies that are putting the local population under unprecedented levels of surveillance.
[/QUOTE]

Read that carefully. Klein uses about a hundred words here to say “A rich guy gave Obama’s campaign a donation.” Go ahead, read it again; that is the entire connection between Kenneth Griffin and Barack Obama. There is no evidence here that Griffin is an advisor to Obama, or that he influences Obama in any way, or that Obama follows Griffin’s advice, and in fact there’s no evidence Griffin is an “Economic libertarian.” It’s just a rich guy donated to Obama’s campaign the “maximum allowable donation,” which is, of course, a miniscule drop in the Obama bucket. Griffin allegedly also did some ethnically questionable things - none of which have anything to do with Senator Barack Obama. So if I can find a communist who donated to Obama, is he a Communist, too?

I mean, you don’t take this shit seriously, do you? That’s atrocious journalism.

[elucidator]

@BrainGlutton

It’s a Communist men’s magazine.

The very latest Albanian men’s fashion. Bulgarian sex toys. Pictures of sturdy Ukranian women of the Riveters and Steelworkers Collective.

[Bryan_Ekers]

@elucidator

The very latest Albanian men’s fashion. Bulgarian sex toys. Pictures of sturdy Ukranian women of the Riveters and Steelworkers Collective.

And the latest tractor upgrades your farming collective simply must requisition from the central committee.

[Frostillicus]

@Clothahump

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace.

You misspelled “McCain”, and quite badly, by the way.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

@BrainGlutton

It’s a Communist men’s magazine.

For the win!

McCain could still eke out a victory, but to do so he would have to fire up the Republican base far more than he has to date AND appeal to a whole lot of undecideds who have thus far been leery of him AND pull away several by-all-estimates safe Obama states, all within the next three days. I just don’t see it happening.

[Measure_for_Measure]

Cell phones. Bias from nonresponse rates. Oh, and it will be raining on Nov 4, and rain favors Republicans.

Does anybody know the predictive power of polls immediately preceding the election? There must be some data from 2004, 2006.

ETA: FWIW, Intrade puts McCain’s chances at 13%.

[foolsguinea]

@Clothahump

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won’t be.

@Jolly_Roger

You’ll excuse me if I disagree. IMO you’d have to braindead to vote for McCain who really hasn’t offered anything new and has the bonus points of picking the completely unqualified Palin for VP.

“Empty Suit” is a better description for McCain, and its not an “ooooh shiny” feeling that makes me vote for Obama. Sadly I’m afraid that too many people are willing to base their votes for McCain on the mudsling he’s done on Obama. After all, he and his cronies haven’t said anything but mudslinging monkey poo on Obama have they?

They’re both somewhat credible candidates. I have serious problems with both of them.

As a conservationist & as someone who thinks Reaganomics has utterly failed to deliver, I won’t vote for a Reaganite this year. The Navy apparently deemed Mac unfit for command a long time ago. To me, the cool-tempered unknown is preferable to the known hothead. But others may see it differently, & that’s fine.

But a lot of venom is being spewed by supporters who are less centrist & accommodating than the candidates themselves. There’s a lot of patronage bound in the job; of course the parties will get nasty.

[Jolly_Roger]

@foolsguinea

They’re both somewhat credible candidates. I have serious problems with both of them.

I will agree with that. McCain has been in politics long enough that I don’t think anyone can say he is unfit to be president. Except:

I will admit, his age bothers me, as well as his health. This would be less of a concern if he had a better VP pick. McCain could say everything I want to hear in a candidate but i would never vote for him if it put Palin anywhere near the WH. I don’t agree with McCain’s policies either, and I was really disgusted with the mudslinging he did. Obama said in a speech (paraphrasing here) that no one knows what McCain would do about some of the things he says he wants to do because he’s always talking about ME (Me being Obama). I felt that way a long time before Mr. Obama said that. I would see Obama lay out plans in explain what he thought was the way to go. All McCain said was Mudslinging stuff and “I know how to do this!”. He never really told me HOW he planned on doing it.

I’ve learned more about McCain’s plans FROM Obama. And it wasn’t mudslinging, even though I’m sure hardcore McCain/Palin voters will claim that it was.

As a conservationist & as someone who thinks Reaganomics has utterly failed to deliver, I won’t vote for a Reaganite this year. The Navy apparently deemed Mac unfit for command a long time ago. To me, the cool-tempered unknown is preferable to the known hothead. But others may see it differently, & that’s fine.

I get the feeling that a lot of people voting for McCain are only doing it to vote against Obama, not because they really think McCain is the best choice. Now I will admit, thats my PERSONAL feeling. I surely hope I’m wrong in that feeling. One thing that I am bewildered by is when the whole socialist tag McCain tries to paint on Obama. I guess its just my own feeling, but if I made over $200,000 a year paying a bit more taxes wouldn’t be so bad, if its helping lower the burden on people less fortunate. Seriously, anyone making that much isn’t going to go broke or lose their house or not be able to afford to send their kids to school with a slight increase in their taxes. Its not a sophisticated opinion I’ll admit, but people that think that its unfair for their taxes to go up a bit when they make 200 grand a year are being a bit selfish.

I think we need to turn this country around. We’ve lost so much in the last 8 years. We’re becoming a laughing stock. (I am leaving this post, but its a NATO assignment and trust me, the other nations want to like us, but they have lost respect for us. Bush has managed to put a dunce cap on Uncle Sam. I know that a lot of people think *“it doesn’t matter what furriners think”, *but i disagree…and a lot of them…hell, all of the ones I’ve met, and they ain’t joes off of the street but officials and officers from NATO countries…think Obama would restore their faith in the USA.) I don’t want to sidetrack the thread on that, but you know what, I CARE what the rest of the world thinks of us, even if I don’t base my vote on it. Since I have to deal with and work with these other countries in some capacity its important to me.

But a lot of venom is being spewed by supporters who are less centrist & accommodating than the candidates themselves. There’s a lot of patronage bound in the job; of course the parties will get nasty.

As corny as it is, that makes me think of something Cmdr. Sinclair on the TV show Babylon Five said. Paraphrasing, he said that if you make someone mad and fight them you get to see the real person. Mccain took his losses and began smearing Obama. Obama did not retaliate with smears. he didn’t make stuff up or bring up any shady dealings about Mccain. And lets be for real…JMcC knew damn well that the Ayers thing was BS. But he hammered on it, hoping to scare people into thinking Obama was a terrorist. So did Palin…she’s not as intelligent as Obama and her own career would be ripe for throwing some mud on…and she must have at least common sense to know what she was saying was poopoo. Clothahump’s post is what I expect from hard core right wingers. *Insult your opponent. * You know, because we’d have to be just plain stupid to think Obama might be a better president, and hey, you might as well insult the people that think that, *even if the thread wasn’t about who you prefer. *

So yes, theres patronage, fanboiism, koolaid being ingested on BOTH sides. But from where I sit obama seems to be the one rising above it, and displaying a presidential appearance.

Which is why I started the thread…McCain says he can still win. I worry that its true though most signs say he’s wrong. I suppose there is no way to get a nonpartisan opinion here, I just want to know the likelihood of a McCain win and the percentages, not argue over which is better pointlessly. I should have known that wasn’t going to happen.

*I am not directing any ire on you, Foolsguinea, so please don’t take anythin I’ve said in that way. *

[Onomatopoeia]

@Jolly_Roger

I think we need to turn this country around. We’ve lost so much in the last 8 years. We’re becoming a laughing stock. (I am leaving this post, but its a NATO assignment and trust me, the other nations want to like us, but they have lost respect for us. Bush has managed to put a dunce cap on Uncle Sam. I know that a lot of people think *“it doesn’t matter what furriners think”, *but i disagree…and a lot of them…hell, all of the ones I’ve met, and they ain’t joes off of the street but officials and officers from NATO countries…think Obama would restore their faith in the USA.) I don’t want to sidetrack the thread on that, but you know what, I CARE what the rest of the world thinks of us, even if I don’t base my vote on it. Since I have to deal with and work with these other countries in some capacity its important to me.

I agree with this 100 percent. I travel internationally for work from time to time, and the sentiment I get from my associates and counterparts who physicians and medical attorneys, in the UK, France, Spain, Switzerland, and Germany is the US has become an ignorant bully. They believe we are generally less educated than citizens of European countries, and we’re inexplicably proud of the distinction. This election has only served to cement the negative opinion. A colleague of mine who’s a professor at the University of Leicester is obsessed with our election, convinced that McCain will eke out a win and fearful that the Neocons will take this as a mandate to continue and expand Americas imperialist policies. I’m very hopeful he’s wrong.

[Desert_Nomad]

@Onomatopoeia

A colleague of mine who’s a professor at the University of Leicester is obsessed with our election, convinced that McCain will eke out a win and fearful that the Neocons will take this as a mandate to continue and expand Americas imperialist policies. I’m very hopeful he’s wrong.

God help us if he is right.

Obama: the courage to face fear 1 of 2

Living overseas, I hear the same concerns everyday… that Americans are ignorant bullies, bent on war and destruction. And you know, they are right. The last 8 years have destroyed our reputation in the world and have brought suffering to millions. We need to take a good long look at ourselves and change our course.

Obama must win.

[Onomatopoeia]

@Desert_Nomad

God help us if he is right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BL8zvxoz9gg

Living overseas, I hear the same concerns everyday… that Americans are ignorant bullies, bent on war and destruction. And you know, they are right. The last 8 years have destroyed our reputation in the world and have brought suffering to millions. We need to take a good long look at ourselves and change our course.

Obama must win.

Wow. That video is powerful. I’m shaking with anger. Obama MUST win!

[Squink]

@Onomatopoeia

A colleague of mine who’s a professor at the University of Leicester is obsessed with our election, convinced that McCain will eke out a win and fearful that the Neocons will take this as a mandate to continue and expand Americas imperialist policies. I’m very hopeful he’s wrong.

Palin on expanding a neocon initiative:

VAN SUSTEREN: In the event something horrible would happen and you ended up being president – I mean, not through the usual procedure, but the unusual – if you got that 3:00 in the morning call, I mean, whatever it may be, whether it’s some country being actively hostile against Israel or something, what’s the process? What – sort of – how would you go about – what’s the first thing you’d do when you get that 3:00 o’clock phone call?

GOV. SARAH PALIN: You assemble your national security team right then. And of course, everybody’s always going to be standing by, ready to assist. But you do not blink when you have to make a decision to defend on the home front, to defend American lives. And that is, of course, the top of any president and vice presidential team’s agenda is to protect American people, so in not blinking there, you – in assembling your team and your advisers, you make the right call and you make sure that Americans are protected.

VAN SUSTEREN: When you talk to Senator McCain, is it mostly about strategy or are you talking big picture right now?

GOV. SARAH PALIN: Both. Both. But not so much strategy about the campaign at all because we both are so confident that we are on the right path, and in these final days of the campaign, we’re acknowledging that people are understanding the stark contrast between the two tickets. And that’s good.

This is the place we need to be right here, still as a bit of an underdog in these last few days, but realizing that Americans are really starting to hear what our opponents are talking about when they talk about spreading the wealth, taking more from our small businesses and from our families and then redistributing other people’s hard-earned money according to a politician’s priorities, that that is – that is not good for this uniquely American, pro-entrepreneurial system that we have that has allowed our country to be the greatest country on earth.

We realize that more and more Americans are starting to see the light there and understand the contrast. And we talk a lot about, OK, we’re confident that we’re going to win on Tuesday, so from there, the first 100 days, how are we going to kick in the plan that will get this economy back on the right track and really shore up the strategies that we need over in Iraq and Iran to win these wars?

War with Iran is assumed.

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

As I just posted in a related thread, George Will just predicted on ABC that Obama will get 383 electoral votes. I’m guessing that is a pretty good indicator that McCain’s chances of winning are pretty darn slim. The line in Vegas has Obama as an 8-1 favorite. Get the fork ready…

[vison]

Get silver bullets, wooden stakes, and wreaths of garlic.

[DrDeth]

@Squink

Palin on expanding a neocon initiative:
War with Iran is *assumed.*strategies that we need over in Iraq and Iran to win these wars?

That’s likely a mis-speak for Afganistan.

[vison]

They will try just about anything.

The link provided leads to a story where someone offered $10,000 to an Oxford don to “prove” that William Ayers wrote Obama’s biography.

[Squink]

@DrDeth

That’s likely a mis-speak for Afganistan.

She hasn’t said so where I’ve seen it, and I’m not inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

@Measure_for_Measure

Cell phones. Bias from nonresponse rates. Oh, and it will be raining on Nov 4, and rain favors Republicans.

Current national forecast for Election Day.

[shy_guy]

@Squink

VAN SUSTEREN: In the event something horrible would happen and you ended up being president

I know what she meant there, but the way she phrased it is still hilarious.

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

@vison

They will try just about anything.

The link provided leads to a story where someone offered $10,000 to an Oxford don to “prove” that William Ayers wrote Obama’s biography.

That is truly one of the most pathetic and desperate things I have ever heard of someone trying to pull. This really made me crack up:

…when Millican said the results had to be made public, even if no link to Ayers was proved, interest waned.

Oh really? “Well we don’t want anyone to find out our dumb crazy paranoid theory was wrong.”