The FiveThirtyEight blog mentioned earlier gives Pennsylvania a 78% chance it will go for Obama. Of the four battleground states mentioned earlier, the blog thinks Pennsylvania, Virginia and Ohio are leaning toward Obama but give Romney a 50.6% chance of taking Florida.
His methodology is sound, but also less reliable the further out we are from the election. If the election were held today, Obama would likely win. Not definitely, but likely(depends on turnout, since Romney is leading or tied in many likely voter polls).
But Romney hasn’t even begun to spend comparable money yet, and the current numbers are after weathering one hellacious negative ad campaign. I don’t think the President can improve his numbers from here. Romney still has a little upside. His favorability is now positive in the last three polls asking that question. and he’s starting to dominate the President on issues like who is more trusted on the economy, the deficit, and taxes. All the President has left is likeability and “understands the problems of people like me.”
As of today, FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 73.7% chance of winning the election if it were held today, with a -7.9% drop since July 23rd, and a corresponding increase for Romney, and gives Obama a 66.9% chance of winning on Nov. 6, with no change since July 23rd. It’s (mildly) interesting to note that in either case, the popular vote is approximately 50%-48% for Obama. Those last two percentages are the ones to keep in mind when the media insists that the race is neck-and-neck. Now I’m not saying that Obama is in the Winner’s Circle yet, and perhaps Romney is closing a bit, but as of now my money is on the president.
This, combined with lots of Rmoney, could sink Obama. His lead in the polls has essentially vanished, and it will come down to a few voters in a few swing states, like Florida, where the vote suppression and manipulation is a GOP wetdream.
In the popular vote, yes, it’s pretty much a tie. But he is still pretty comfortably ahead in state-by-state polls. For instance, from RealClearPolitics, which combines various polls, Obama only needs to win just 33% of the toss ups to win the election. That’s the current reality.
There was an article in the Tennessean the other day about how the state GOP’s push for our voter ID law has seemingly backfired on them. Apparently a recent study has shown that the new law has created the biggest obstacles to voting for low-income residents in very rural areas where there are no nearby locations to get a photo ID. Those rural counties, in Tennessee, vote overwhelmingly Republican. On the other hand, the lower-income urban voters have it a little bit easier time acquiring the necessary ID and of course are more likely to vote Democratic. I’d love to see this law bite the GOP in the ass.
ETA: Not that the state has a snowball’s chance in hell of going for Obama, but it might impact some state-wide races and congressional seats.
Then the law won’t be enforced there. Easy-peasy.
As Nate Silver also pointed out, national polls and swing state polls are in disagreement. They cannot both be right. Obama will not lose the popular vote and dominate in the electoral college.
And as we’ve seen, the swing state polls have tightened to more closely reflect the national polling.
I agree that Obama is still the favorite at this point, Silver’s methodology is rock solid and Intrade agrees with him as well. But his odds are not “cruising”. He’s in a fight and he knows he’s in a fight.
RCP has conceded another state to Obama (I believe Wisconsin, if that was ever in serious trouble) So, going off of this map at 247 to 191 as of now, all he has to do is lock up Ohio (which is heavily trending his way already) and get either Nevada or Colorado (at least one of them will go blue, but probably both will turn out that way) and he’ll be golden.
That strategy ignores the two other big battleground states: Virginia (which is leaning Obama) and Florida (which could still go either way). As I’ve noted before, though, the lynchpin here is Pennsylvania, and if Obama loses there his path to 270 will be a lot tougher. The big question mark, of course, is voter suppression, Nate Silver doesn’t think that’ll pose much of a problem.
I read the Nate Silver article about voter suppression. It didn’t convince of me of much. He needs to go into more detail! 
And looking at that map, I’d say if Pennsylvania is indeed the linchpin, then Obama should be tuxedo shopping even as we speak.
“Lynchpin” is shown as an alternate spelling, though not without some controversy. With either spelling, the meaning is “crucial,” but that might imply either Obama needs Pennsylvania to have a chance or Obama wins easily if he gets Pennsylvania. It is the first meaning that applies.
The voter ID issue is just the tip of the iceberg of my concerns about mischief on November 6. Recall that selected precincts were under-equipped in Ohio 2004, reducing Democratic vote. And voter ID will surely lead to fraud – does anyone here seriously deny there will be selective instances of “Oh, we all is gonna let Fred vote even though he forgot his driver license. Why, I used to help his Mamma change his diapers!”
Yeah, Obama could still win without taking Pennsylvania, but it would be a lot harder. In that scenario, he would have to win Ohio and then secure virtually every remaining state that has a smaller number of EC votes - Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, putting him at exactly 270. Of course, that outlook is also taking the less optimistic route of conceding Virginia and Florida to Romney, and if Obama wins either of those two states he’ll have much more wiggle room.
Florida, in particular, is looking a bit safer for Obama given the latest round of polling there.
Don’t you mean the latest single poll? RCP average is +1.4 for Obama in Florida.
I think the campaigns have pulled out of Pennsylvania simply because that state is no longer relevant. If Romney wins it, it isn’t likely to be his winning margin, because he’ll probably also have won Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Florida, and Virginia. And if Obama wins those more closely contested states, then he almost certainly wins Pennsylvania too.
Michigan is not in play and Michigan never was in play. Romney has ZERO chance to win there. My fellow Michiganders and I normally vote blue anyway, to vote for a man what wanted to destroy GM and Chrysler is simply unthinkable.
Wisconsin is not in play, either. Too many people got faked out by the recall election, and I’m afraid you were one of those. Many people who can’t stand Walker voted against the recall on the principle of being against recalls, not as an endorsement of Walker’s neanderthal politics. The state is fairly liberal and Romney’s 15th century social views isn’t viewed favorably.
Ohio? Not in play, either. Wanting GM dead doesn’t play well there, either.
Florida is slipping from Romney’s upset chances. Wanting to destroy Medicare isn’t playing well there.
New Hampshire and Virginia are the only states listed where a Romney win would be possible, although far from certain.
Well, if you believe Ohio and Florida are out of play for Romney, then indeed, as per the title of this thread, Obama will cruise to a second term. Romney can’t win without winning both of those states.
Pretty much. Take McCain, subtract the war hero narrative, add in the vulture capitalist baggage, wrap it up in a cult religion, and you’ve got Romney.
The 2nd-most important thing for me is how many Democratic Congresscritters get elected on his coattails; I don’t want to have to endure 2-4 more years of utter gridlock. I hate the idea of split ballots but we may end up with more than a few.
Republicans will likely control Congress entirely after the election. As for the President, he’s still in a very tight race. I’m very surprised at the overconfidence of his supporters. I wonder how that overconfidence will affect turnout. The Obama campaign itself is running around with its hair on fire begging for donations, so they know they are in a fight.
Yes. In my effort to pedantically correct 2ManyTaco’s spelling, I forgot to recheck the definition of the word! 
I know I’m not making any great revelation when I say that if it’s true that if Obama wins PA, he wins the election, then he will in fact most surely win.
Being that I am for Obama, I of course hope he wins Florida. At this time I’m not as sure of this as you seem to be, given his current standing in the polls there.