Washington Examiner: Joe Arpaio may challenge Jeff Flake for Arizona Senate seat
What do you think are the chances that
he runs for Senate?
he wins the GOP nomination?
he wins the general election?
I’d put #1 at the lowest probability, mostly because he’s old as dirt, with #2 and #3 fairly plausible if he does run.
Sure, why not? Let’s make this shit sandwich a party sub.
Maricopa County was 47-44 Trump, but Arpaio lost 43-56. Maricopa is not the most blue country in AZ. It’s closer to the median. He’s also running against an incumbent Senator who won his last primary with 70% of the vote. Finally, he’s currently asking the federal court to vacate his conviction because of the pardon, in part because of the effect of his conviction on other aspects of his life. So there’s a chance this talk is just to bolster his legal standing. He is also 85 years old.
On the other hand, he has widespread name recognition among the law enforcement, Birthers, and White Nationalists, which has only increased with Trump’s pardon. So he can probably raise money. And Jeff Flake is going to struggle more than usual in the primary with Trump opposing him. And Arizona is still a red state.
So all in all I’d put the odds this way (framed as overall likelihood, not contingent based on the prior event occurring):
25% chance he runs
8% chance he wins the nomination
3% chance he wins the seat
What about you?
Maybe I’m doing my probabilities funky, but here’s my WAG thinking:
10% chance he runs
(assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination
(assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat
Artile 1, Section 5 of the US Constitution: “Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members”. It will be fun to see how stand-up the Republicans in the Senate are as to whether to accept this slug as one of their own.
If Arpaio were to run, defeat Flake, and win the general election, I imagine you’d see a significantly-cowed anti-Trump wing of the Republican party.
I think this means we basically agree, except that I put a higher chance that he runs.
I could see him running just for vanity and fundraising purposes, or as a favor to Trump.
If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there’s a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters.
This seems likely to me, as well.
Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio’s age. He’ll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving – and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he’s at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely.
I’d put it at almost certain that he runs for something, as an ego trip and fundraising exercise if nothing else. The only reason it wouldn’t be Senator is that he might not want to compete with Ward.
I don’t see him winning, though, not even in the primary. A primary against an incumbent is always tough, and I don’t think that Trump’s endorsement is enough to overcome that.
Based on the poll made before Arpaio was pardoned, the reality is that most Arizonas did not want that pardon, and based on the last election neither Arpaio.
So, I would indeed put better odds on him running than winning.
Trump backs Arpaio, obviously. I think he’ll run 100%. Imagine the free late-nite tweets Orangeanus will throw at Flake.
Whether he’ll win, no idea.
I think this is a big factor. Flake already has an established challenger. Arpaio entering the race would most likely just split the anti-Flake vote and get Flake the nomination.
Trump’s already announced he’s supporting Ward. Granted, this is Trump; he might switch his endorsement. But endorsing two competing nominees is going to weaken the value of the endorsement.
Either way–Trump sticks with Ward, or Trump switches to Arpaio–either way, Trump pisses off McConnell. Which is an ever-present goal for our “very good brain” guy.
Trump genuinely believes he can take down McConnell. Trump thinks he’ll wind up with a Senate that will be eager to fulfill his slightest whim.
Remember, you can’t spell “crazy” without R-AZ!
He won’t run for anything. He’s a Sarah Palin and will make his money on the speaking and book writing circuit
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
LOL, so fucking true!
We had a post in some Arpaio thread a few years back – sorry, can’t find it now – from a poster who had had some in-person encounters with him, and described him as being seemingly senile.
There’s a related PreditIt market: Will Jeff Flake be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2018?
The month of August has not been kind to Jeff Flake, but I don’t see any reaction in the graph to Arpaio’s pardon or subsequent rumblings about running for office.
Wow. $0.29. Ouch!
PredictIt is giving Flake WAY worse odds than Tester in Montana ($0.71), Donnelly in Indiana ($0.60), Heitkamp in North Dakota ($0.58), and McCaskill in Missouri ($0.51).