There might be a few bright spots for the Democrats (or maybe not):
The Republicans might revert to the talking filibuster, or ditch it altogether. I strongly hope this is the case. At the very worst, it would just mean a lot of vetoes by Obama.
The Republicans may see this as a validation of the extreme anti-Obama sentiment, and may nominate the most vocal and vitriolic anti-Obama critic (and wingnut!) for President in 2016 – Ted Cruz, Santorum, or even someone like Brownback or (a long shot, but it would be awesome for the Democrats!) Allen West, all of whom would be much easier to defeat for the Democratic candidate than Kasich or Christie.
The Republicans seriously overreach and (hopefully!) try to impeach PResident Obama.
The Democrats hopefully realize that not campaigning on their accomplishments is a terrible strategy.
Of course, this is optimistic thinking. But I have faith and hope in America!
Not sure about #1 – may not be relevant.
Any combination of #2, 3, or 4 would be great (for the Dems). I agree an impeachment attempt would be suicidal for the Pubs, but I think it’s unlikely to happen (they’d have to start with something that vaguely resembles an impeachable offense, but they have nothing). 20% chance of happening, I’ll say.
That leaves the other two. One – nominating a wingnut – is in the Pub’s hands, while the other – getting some backbone and supporting the good things the Obama administration has done or tried to do – is in the Dem’s hands.
I give the first one (Pubs suicidally nominating a wingnut) about a 55% chance of happening, and the second one (Dems, especially the Dem nominee, growing some stones rather than pathetically trying to throw Obama under the bus) about a 35% chance of happening.
If neither of these things happen, the Pubs could win the 2016 presidential race in a squeaker.
I don’t know if he counts in your book as a “wingnut” or not, but Scott Walker won over an extraordinarily intense union campaign against him. Had he lost, he would have been finished. Had the unions not fought him tooth and nail, his win would have had little resonance. Giving him the chance to win after such a fight means that he will inevitably be considered as a possible 2016 candidate.
This may be a nice illustration of the old adage, “Never shoot at your boss – and miss”.
It appears that Hillary’s campaigning for Dem candidates produced little of value in this election. Except possibly in NH, pretty much every close race in which she campaigned seems to have turned out worse for the Dem candidate than the late polls predicted.
Possibly – Hillary’s biggest weakness is a sense of “been there, done that”. If some relatively young and different Democrat emerges, she could have a contest on her hands.
I hope the Democrats help the Republicans with filibuster reform. It’s the right thing to do, and it will show that they are not doing it for partisan advantage (ostensibly) considering they are removing their own weapon for the next two years. At the same time, anything that they would have filibustered is just going to get vetoed by the President, so no real damage gets done except to the President himself for being a (Foxnews voice) veto happy fascist/socialist/marxist (normal person voice) who is not running for anything ever again.
Then, add in that this is possibly only the landscape for the next two years, and just grin and bear it until then when they can take back the Senate and it’s win/win.
It all depends on Barack Obama. If he governs well, the Democrats will do well. Alternatively, he can just muddle along like he has been doing and hope the Republicans self-destruct. Liberals seem awfully confident that this is what will happen. The problem is, they were wrong about it happening during the campaign this year. They kept it pretty sane, relatively, sane enough that no one scuttled their hopes in 2014. At the very least, Democrats should not count on Republicans to self-destruct.
It’s always better for your destiny to be in your own hands. As a GOP supporter, I want the Republicans to do well: work with the President on areas of common agreement, make some compromises on tough issues, and demonstrate that they aren’t wild-eyed lunatics. If they do that, 2016 will be no problem. Likewise, Democrats should hope for Obama to buckle down and do a good job over the next two years, even if Republicans won’t work with him. He’s got plenty to do even if he doesn’t get any new legislation. If he does his job well, Democrats can go into 2016 with confidence.
But really, there’s no way to predict with any confidence what will happen based on this election. Did the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006 make a Democratic win in 2008 more likely, less likely, or no effect? Even after the fact I don’t know that that question can be answered. Guessing how a GOP win in 2014 affects 2016 might be similarly impossible, even after we know what happens the day after election day 2016.