Thank you. Even among very intelligent people, innumeracy — especially about understanding simple probabilities — is rampant.
I wonder if this innumeracy is part of the reason for the disaster. People saw the “Trump 30%” and thought the gasoline to campaign or vote for “Hillary 70%” would be a waste.
They should have been scared shitless.
What kind of percentage did he pull during his several attempts? Did it make a difference? And if you look at who voted for him he probably drew as many Republicans as Democrats. Ralph is the “none of the above” option for voters from both sides. I believe (memory is foggy on this) that he actually campaigned at least once on that basis.
California is always a odd touch when it comes to politics. One thing I can say is that among a lot of my hard-core Party friends she is thought of as the person who brings the most shame to our side. Even when we agree with her there is a natural cringe as soon as she steps up to the mic.
Two things.
Racism and suchlike - heck most negative emotions and behaviors - stem from anxiety and insecurity. People lash out when they fear. That’s what Trump harnessed. He brought focus to fifty years of concern about losing ground and gave it a target. It’s a tale old as time.
Are you SERIOUSLY comparing Nate Silver’s hot take in a tweet that took place during the first month of primaries vs an actual breakdown of voter behavior and polling after by Silver’s polling analyst?
C’mon, I know it’s comforting to blame racism and sexism for the woes of the world. But it’s too easy to do so and to ignore the underlying causes of such behavior. It’s facile to break things down to evil vs good and assign evil to your opponents. But that way never resolves the issues at hand that cause such behaviors. We need a more flexible, less finger-pointing way to communicate with people with whom we strongly disagree.
It’s not even a matter of reaching out or ‘working across the aisle’. It’s a matter of finding a means by which we can satisfy people of all stripes. That’s true leadership. Pointing fingers is just demogoguery and leads to more and more calcified positions that never actually resolve things.
I can’t remember who it was around here, who framed the estimates of Trump’s chances as “two coin flips away from the Presidency”. Which does put matters into perspective: People can picture losing two coin flips in a row.
I think part of the reason why people get confused is because there are two very different percentages that get floated around, the probability of winning and the vote share. 70% of the vote share would be an amazingly unthinkable landslide, and if any remotely credible estimate predicts one candidate winning by that much, it’s completely certain that they actually will win by some margin. But a 70% chance of winning corresponds to a vote share of only somewhere in the vicinity of 52%.
Well said.
If the anxiety and insecurity has no other messaging well addressed at it, no positive alternative, then racism and suchlike has an easy time being a winning sales pitch. Blaming your problems on the other is the easiest populist mantra. The solution is not calling those who buy that pitch names but listening and validating the anxiety and sense of insecurity and offering a different path that is working together to address them. Obama won by doing that.
I don’t think I’m doing that – I think I’m accurately describing things. I think racism (and other forms of bigotry) is still a huge influence in our country and our politics. But I also think many or most people are terrified to talk about it, and especially terrified to even consider that their own views and opinions might be influenced by bigotries present in our larger society and culture. It shouldn’t be this way – and ignoring racism, or minimizing its effects and influence, isn’t going to change this (I’m not sure if you’re doing this, but I think you might be). I think the only way to change this is to actually call it out and “bring it into the open”.
But calling it out doesn’t have to be “pointing fingers”. “Racist” isn’t merely an insult – it can be an accurate descriptor. I have had views and beliefs in the past that have been influenced and probably even driven by societal bigotry (especially homophobia and misogyny, but also racism). I think it’s very important to recognize this – it’s the only way to get past it.
I think the model of moving past this sort of bigotry (or at least one form of it) is post-WWII Germany. At least as I understand it, German society wholly acknowledged the role that anti-semitism in their own culture played in the atrocities of the Nazis. It took years, but one of the primary features of modern German society and culture, as I understand it, is vehement opposition to any form of anti-semitism. America hasn’t done this with regards to racism and white supremacism. Most white Americans still see these as sins of the past, as I understand the applicable polling. These folks are wrong, and more importantly, are continuing to hold our society and culture back, by their ignorance. Making sure these folks stay comforted that they’re still seen as the salt of the Earth, and fundamentally decent and wise, and making excuses for their tolerance for bigotry and their support for bigots, isn’t going to change this.
Further, most of these folks are unreachable. But thankfully, they’re a lot older, on average, then the rest of America. I think it’s more important to accurately describe the state of the country, and ensure younger and non-white people are informed and energized to take part, then it is to ensure that these folks don’t feel insulted or attacked because they don’t believe that their own bigoted views are bigoted.
For the same reason you’d eat in a restaurant rather than stay home and cook. Or why I go through the Jiffy Lube rather than change my own oil. Some people just don’t want to fuck with some things and are willing to pay to not to. Also the manufactured stocks look more OEM.
But this is all irrelevant. My point is, by November 2020 Trump will have pissed off everyone, including his hardcore base.
The GOP bought the ticket, they gotta take the ride. Unless something somehow generates a sudden outbreak of *“OMG this is so wrong I don’t care about ending my career, just don’t let it be on my obit that I supported this” *they’ll just grit their teeth and march on with DJT at the head, and as has been pointed out, there is no such thing as a sure-win scenario.
From your lips to Og’s ears, and may Og smash Trump.
But yes, if the base gets ticked off going into 2020, it doesn’t matter if they’re getting it right or wrong on substantive merit any more than it did for them rallying behind Trump in 2016.
What evidence do you have that Trump became the front-runner due to racism?
It certainly wasn’t *despite *it.
He won as he lied to the Rust belt and told them he could bring their crappy factory jobs back. The GOp has had most of the racist South sewed up for a few decades, everyone expected the GOP candidate to win there. Trump got some swing states due to lies.
Yes, every political experts agree Nader cost Gore the election due to Florida.
What makes the experts think the Nader voters would have voted for Gore. They could have not voted at all, voted for another 3rd party or voted for Bush.
They looked at, you know-* the numbers,* and exit polls. That election was that close.
No one disputes this.
The final official margin, certified by Bush’s brother and his state campaign manager, was 537 votes.
I can’t let this go back. The amount of condescension and misunderstanding in this post is astonishing.
Those factory jobs - while I agree they ain’t coming back - are some of the best, most reliable food-on-table jobs available to those without a degree. Not only that but they provide pride of purpose and motivation for a great many men and women in the world.
To call them ‘crappy factory jobs’ is to display the worst elitism and essentially job-shaming people who’s only real crime is hoping to pay their bills and raise their kids. It’s the same sort of arrogance that refers to the midwest as ‘flyover states’ - which I’ve been known to do, sadly.
Have you ever worked on a factory floor? I have. United Technologies Automotive in Iowa City while I was in grad school. I helped assemble the soft parts - dashes, door panels and such - for Dodge Neons (this was a while ago). There’s nothing inherently better or worse about that job than there is in my current one in the financial sector.
Ok. We can agree to disagree on how crappy they are or aren’t. But they aint coming back. They cant. They were only there as the USA won WW2 without getting bombed.
And we can agree that Trumped lied to them.
You honestly believe Trump’s base is upset about the bump-stock ban? Really? That’s the issue that will kill him? Really?
OK, I get it. You’re a 2nd Amendment voter. And you’re upset about the bump-stock ban. So that’s one of you. And three guys from your gun store. But what are the four of you going to do? Vote for Kamala Harris? No, you all are going to end up voting for Trump, because Trump is a Republican, and in the mind of a 2nd Amendment voter the worst Republican is 10 times better than the best Democrat. And it doesn’t matter what a Democrat says about gun control, because you know it’s all lies.
I mean, I guess you could stay home on election day because of the bump stock ban. But then what about the Supreme Court? Abortion? Gays? Immigrants taking your jobs? The liberal social justice warriors ruining America? No, you’ll vote for Trump, because even though you didn’t like this one decision you’re still on board with 95% of what Trump talks about.
I can’t believe how slow witted and thick headed some of you can be. :rolleyes:
It wasn’t* just* that (and the other 2 Second Amendment issues) Trump flipped on, it was the **swiftness **that he did so. At the instant of any kind of incident he quickly started blathering about assault weapons, age limits, and bump stocks. He turned his back on that demographic block of voters faster than a speeding bullet. Pun intended.
It isn’t just the ban issue, it’s the entire gun rights issue that he betrayed almost immediately. And that is a significant level of support he’s going to lose.
Now add in everything else and the GOP is looking at a reelection lose not seen since 1932. Does a party stick with a candidate they know is going to bomb this bad almost 2 years ahead of time?
Yes. Yes they do.
What are you going do? You can’t replace Trump the day before the election. The process of dumping Trump has to happen right about now, which is going to mean two years of Lame Duck Trump. And it would require the entire Republican political class to publicly abandon Trump. How’s that going to play out for their 2020 re-election campaign?
You complain about Trump supporting the bump stock ban as if it were some horrible surprise, but come on. How could it be a surprise?
And the fact is that Trump’s base isn’t that upset with him. They still support him, despite the fact that he’s going to betray them again and again. So is it really a betrayal if they support him after the so-called betrayal? The fact is that the don’t support Trump because of his policy positions, and they don’t care about getting policy enacted.
I mean, it’s very likely that Trump, if he runs in 2020, is going to face a pretty humiliating loss. But he’s not going to be humiliated, because Trump can never fail, because it’s always someone else’s fault. He’s acting as if he just won a big victory, same as he acted as if he won a big concession from North Korea. Hey, at least he’s responsible for the lowering of tensions between America and North Korea, because he was creating the tension in the first place and now he stopped.