Gun sales seem a bit like white blood cell counts: All sorts of things can make it go up, but few things make them go down.
Pandemic? Gun sales skyrocket. Democrat winning office? Gun sales go up. Election-violence fears? Gun sales go up. Racial turmoil? Gun sales go up. Hurricane, earthquake, tornado? Gun sales go up.
Does it, paradoxically, take a long Republican, pro-2A administration for people to decide not to buy guns?
It’s pretty straightforward. Gun sales go up when a Democrat is in the Oval Office and down when it’s a Republican.
Gun purchases are up right now because of other factors, but prior to the pandemic and the sharp uptick in Trump’s fearmongering, they were down.
Nor is it paradoxical. Gun sale booms are largely predicated on the fear that the liberals are going to “take our guns away.” When there’s no easy hook to hang that hat on, sales drop.
Basically, there are two reasons to buy guns: you may not be able to buy them in the future, you need /may need to it in the future. Conversely, if there is no chance you won’t be able buy the gun you want in the future or you won’t need the gun any time soon then people will put off their purchases rather than accelerate them.
A related question: what conditions increase the percentage of gun owners — that is, inspire people to buy a gun who didn’t own one before? And vice versa? And are they different than the conditions that inspire people who already have guns to go get some more?
And how much of these “X is/might be President” gun sales spikes is attributable to each type of buyer? I’m guessing there might be some research on that.
The recent events have answered, this - and for 2020, the number is HUGE.
First-Time Gun Buyers Grow to Nearly 5 Million in 2020 • NSSF.
While the article has quite a bit of bias in terms of why they feel there is such a spike, the demographics buying is suggestive.
NSSF surveys revealed that 58 percent of firearm purchases were among African American men and women, the largest increase of any demographic group. Women comprised 40 percent of first-time gun purchasers.
So yeah, I suspect that people, especially of color and female, are feeling threatened - and they likely should be, and so they want to protect themselves.
Legitimate fear of needing protection, if I had to guess. When there’s a fear of losing the ability to buy guns, say, a democrat about to take office, I would assume that the majority of people buying guns, already have them, and just want to add a few more to their collection. Riots, on the other hand, I’d guess that there’s a lot of people who never owned a gun deciding they’d feel better if they had one in the house.
My mom, from time to time, mentions my grandfather getting a handgun during either the 60’s civil rights riots or the 90’s LA/Rodney King riots. (He was an avid hunter and had a number of long guns, but this was his only handgun).
I also know a few people that keep guns at work (c-stores) and start taking them home at night over the last few months when we had protests that were turning into all out riots marching right past their houses.
I got myself a handgun after my store was held up at gun point. It just sits at work, stuck to the bottom of my desk with a strong magnet, but it’s nice to know it’s there if this happens again.
I’d also guess that victims of abuse (domestic/sexual) or people that finally get out of a bad relationship and fear retribution.
Short answer, if I had to guess, I’d say that people are inspired to buy a gun when they have a legitimate or perceived fear of violence. Also, I assume you’re not counting people buying their first gun because it looks like a fun hobby. Not for protection, not to carry and they never even considered using it for anything other than taking to the range. I suppose that number isn’t going to change all that much over time anyway.
I’m kind of curious how many people aren’t buying them to protect themselves from violence, but to be part of the violence. That is, a lot of people are thinking ‘all this civil unrest, I need a gun to protect myself’, but surely some people are thinking ‘all this civil unrest, I want to shoot stuff’. Maybe none, I really don’t know.
It would be hard to put numbers to that @Joey_P, so I wouldn’t try. IMHO, those people who were drawn to violence in some way are the sorts that already have firearms, legally purchased or otherwise . A first time gun purchase is often expensive, especially if you’re also getting ammunition, carry equipment and (hopefully) training. I would say that you could easily be spending close to $1000 if you’re getting a quality handgun, CCW or safety training, ammunition for practice and defense, and a holster/carry purse/etc. Of course, you can cheap out on many if not all of these things but…
When you’re making that much of an investment, I think there is real motivation - and fear is a bigger motivator than fun. Of course, I don’t have any numbers to back it up, but again, seeing the demographics of the first time buyers, I’ll remain firm in my opinions - which seem to be in line with yours.
One that I know that has caused a lot of people to get their first gun was moving to a rural area. Either because they are more exposed to gun sports (hunting, target shooting, ect.) Or they realize that they need to protect themselves more than they did in the city.
I was at a party this weekend where one of the moms that just moved here from NYC was describing having a mountain lion in her back yard. An elk wandered by and they called the cops to deal with the mountain lion eating it, she was told to just not go outside until it was done and gone, then dispose of the remains. Since the cop wouldn’t come deal with and animal she went out the next day and bought a shotgun.
I would assume those kind of buyers are demographically stable though or possibly declining. I believe we may see an increase in the wake of COVID as people leave cities but it may be masked in the data due to the generic fear of a D president.
But let’s be honest. If you’re buying a gun (even legally) for the specific purpose of being part of the violence (as opposed to protecting yourself), you’re not taking a CCW class or getting trained or spending time at the range or buying the most expensive gun or even getting a holster and lock. That quickly takes the price down from $1000 to something closer to half that.
Some quick looking online at my local Cabelas shows a used .40 S&W for $400 and another $100 will get you 4 boxes (25ct) of ammo for it.
Yeah, still an investment and if you’re not sure if you’re going to make rent this month, probably not a wise investment, but doable for someone that’s always wanted a gun and using this as an excuse to buy one.
On top of all that, a .40 S&W isn’t a cheap gun. You can spend considerably less just buying a plinker. A .22 is just as scary as a .40 when you’re staring at the business end and it can still make someone just as dead.
But, I agree, the numbers are likely unknowable. It’s not like when asked why they’re buying a gun (even if it’s just small talk with the sales person) no one is going to say ‘I wanna shoot someone’. I was just thinking out loud.
I disagree with your comparison to white blood cell count.
I’d actually be very surprised if that number exceeded 1% of legal gun purchases. I’d think that most of the people with that mindset already have a criminal record that would prohibit them from purchasing a weapon at any retailer.
How many are adding to their collection by illlegal means is anybody’s guess.
One thing I wanted to add to an earlier point, especially after Joey’s anecdote, is that people doing first time shopping in rural areas are much, much more likely to buy a shotgun (or maybe a rifle) as dealing with wildlife with a pistol is rarely a smart move, and the locals as well as the dealers will tell them so. Not to mention, as he pointed out, you can normally get a shotgun or other long gun immediately, without a fraction of the work to get a pistol (although requirements vary dramatically depending on region/state).
Since the biggest reported surge is in handgun sales, that suggests that the concern is defense (or possibly offense) against humans, who tend to be easier targets, and where portability and concealability are key factors. I’ve added an extra, probably less biased site for review (NPR) from July, and the numbers of background checks (which are run for legal handgun sales) are quite telling.
Short version, background checks for handgun purchases are up 80% from last year - where we knew we were already approaching an election year with a challenged incumbent. Similar numbers from retail surveys, a large number of first time buyers who have minimal if any experience, but are still making the purchase.
As a gun owner and CCW permit holder, I spend some time lurking various boards, and for the people who are, shall we say, adventurous, the concerns are not about firearms, but the shortages of affordable ammunition are reloading supplies. While I have minimal concerns about such armchair warriors, I am terrified of the number of people buying guns without having done any training, or without adequate preparations to gun-proof a home. Those are tragedies waiting to happen.
Getting back to the original topic however, what would make gun sales go down? I think the answer is a feeling of safety and stability. BUT what defines safety and stability varies from group to group, often at increased feelings of threat to others. I’m sure the average Trumper would feel safe if all the protesters were dragged off to jail and the cops were given free reign. It’s not like we haven’t seen people saying that on this board - but that same scenario makes more liberal leaning individuals feel a critical need of defense against those same police and neighbors.
So, if Biden wins today (or the next 2 weeks depending on ballot and lawsuit processing), and makes good on a centrist, respectful administration, gun sales will likely drop like a brick, especially if we have positive progress on stopping Covid. If Trump remains at large, and keeps whipping up the us-vs-them mentality with dog whistles to the most violent subgroups on the right, nothing is going to change in the short term.
The one thing that sadly may drive down sales is my earlier point - ammunition. All the major American manufacturers are already running at 100% - and the demand is so high that if and when you can find ammunition for sale, it’s already almost doubled in price. If you go to the store to buy a weapon, but can’t get ammunition, it’s probably not going to happen.
And of course, first time buyers are a lot less likely to go for the multiple purchase option that collectors and enthusiasts do. Once that surge is past, say in 6 months when we’re past the election one way or another and ideally have a vaccine, those people are going to look at that pistol as an impulse buy and likely never get another. We won’t have changed the increase in total gun ownership, but gun sales will drop from their current inflated level.
This article suggests that they are very different in some ways. The number of gun owners has been trending down for decades, while the number of guns owned by the average gun owner has been trending up. Those are long-term trends, though, that might not hold in the short term.
I expect that most people who are buying a gun “to be part of the violence” aren’t admitting that to themselves quite as bald-facedly as we might imagine. My impression is that there are three general classes of gun owners (that overlap some): People who use them as tools (hunters, ranchers, security professionals), people who use them as security blankets (those first-time gun owners who go buy a handgun) and people who think guns are super cool and feel a sense of power and want to have a bunch of cool guns.
Those groups certainly overlap, but it’s largely the latter group that’s driving increased sales and (in my opinion) also the latter group that is most likely to want to rumble and shoot up some shit. Due to the cultural/psychological reason that group likes guns, they are unlikely to be content with a bargain weapon.
You’re probably right. I was just making the point that if you’re buying a gun to buy a gun, the barrier to entry doesn’t have to be nearly as high as ParallelLines was suggesting. You can buy a gun and be done with it. You’re not required to spend all that extra money on classes and safety equipment.
Hey, I clearly stated
New italics to point out the pertinent bits. I’m a responsible gun owner, but not everyone is, and the first estimate is for those who are being responsible. Pretty much anyone who is going to be using a newly purchased firearm for some sort of ‘glorious adventure’ is going to be about as far as possible from responsible. And I repeat, if you’re the sort that sees current events as a chance to do mischief the odds are highly stacked that you own 1+ guns and have been waiting for class/race war or a zombie apocalypse, whichever comes first. 
Edit - nitpick, but a .40 S&W is a caliber or ammunition type, not a model of firearm or indication of quality at all. Not that there aren’t a ton of quality weapons in that caliber available, even used, as I have a used S&W M&P .40 bought from the Police dpt a few years back with minimal wear.
Vaccine news apparently Gun stocks tumble after upbeat vaccine news, lack of civil unrest | Reuters
“Shares of firearms sellers tumbled on Monday as promising data from a COVID-19 vaccine trial knocked stay-at-home stocks”
““If a vaccine that is 90% effective can truly bring COVID to an end, the return to work and school could subsequently bring sales in these categories back down to normalized levels,” Aegis Capital analyst Rommel Dionisio said in an email.”
Good info Andy_L! Ties back into what I and others have said about fear being a driver of gun sales. If the epidemic dies down, the people who are buying new firearms as a ‘safety blanket’ will reduce. Sadly, I’m sure for at least the near future, the terror/anticipation of the (unlikely but not impossible) civil war and much more likely Trump-supporter based riots are going to keep sales topped off even if the vaccine pans out.
Interesting. I can see this being the case with bears, but with animals like coyotes or wolves (which are just big wild dogs,) wouldn’t a pistol bullet (or 2-5 bullets) deal them some pretty lethal damage anyway?
Trying to avoid a hijack, but in short, pistols are lousy. They have very poor accuracy, velocity, impact, etc. The old saw in defense circles is that the only use of a handgun is to get to a shotgun, and the only use of a shotgun is to get to a rifle. Handguns pretty much only have the virtue of being easy to carry and conceal. In general, you would only be accurate to 21 feet or so. I’m making sweeping generalizations here, because I don’t think this is the thread to discuss it in detail. 
Okay, having said that, you don’t normally see coyotes or wolves as a threat to a home, although if you’re a rancher or farmer, you consider them vermin, and hunt them at range generally with a .223/5.56 rifle with a scope. They aren’t going to come to you unless it’s going after your trash. They are largely not a threat to adult humans. But bears and cougars are and a weapon that is relatively poor at stopping humans (which pistols are) are going to be seriously underpowered against a bear. And again, if it’s far away, you want to leave it alone, but if it’s close or threatening, you need to be able to stop it quickly, which calls for a shotgun or rifle.
Thus my earlier comment, if you live in a rural area, and are doing the first time buy, you probably already know these things from friends/neighbors/family, or your local gun store will certainly be happy to tell you. Since firearms tend to be expensive, you generally buy what you need, and if it multi-tasks (defense against wildlife as well as hunting) all the better.
Having said all that, most of the people I know in rural areas already have several firearms (including my great aunt in law, who has a ranch in the middle of nowhere, has a wicked hate of coytes eating her chickens, and a scoped .223 which she is awesome with), and a shotgun for times she’s had black bears and cougars on her farmstead. And often these guns have been put into use by generations of family members. But they don’t have handguns, because they see it as tool of us crime-ridden urban dwellers and gangs.
I don’t subscribe to her political points of view, but that’s the general POV outside the cities. And trust me, they look down on the 5.56 AR people heavily, as by their standards, that’s a varmit gun.