It may end up being just 45k votes. It could be more or less than that. The point being Harris needs every vote she can get to win MI.
Without MI the path to Harris winning is much more difficult and in my opinion very likely.
It is not impossible that the impact will be as much as 45K, although we have no decent evidence of that.
And it is not impossible that MI goes by that thin of a margin.
I have little expectation that both are true.
I’ll add this: if loses MI it won’t matter. If she loses MI she is also losing the whole skew of them. It won’t be the tipping point.
The hypothesis, though, was her losing Michigan specifically because of its large Muslim population being angry at the Biden administration, an event independent of general polling errors. If in fact that voting bloc really does decide to punish Harris, then it’s possible she could lose Michigan by a whisker while winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (I know Minnesota has a big Muslim population too but the polling there is not close.)
It’s a weird scenario and means she PROBABLY loses; she would then still have to win Georgia, or NC, or both Arizona and Nevada. But weirder things have happened.
But already baked into current polls.
You are right on target. I forget where I saw this quote but I like it. Trump acts like what a 12 year old boy thinks a man is.
We’ve had this discussion on this board many times, but you can’t expect people to vote for a party that got a lot of their countrymen killed by the argument that the other party would be even worse. That’s bad marketing and just not human nature.
Nobody would thank Gunman A who just shot two of their family members because of knowledge that Gunman B would have killed even more.
Just wow. I can understand the emotional desire to punish. I could get some voters acting on it even (although I suspect those numbers are overestimated). But someone who is in a position of power and leadership and who knows what is at stake in a state that might be a tipping point and which are led to believe is painfully close, not doing all in her power to help encourage a dramatically less poor choice for her most vital cause? Wow.
If Harris loses to an insurrectionist just because BOTH of them are going to carry on the tradition of the United States supporting Israel, then this country is really fucked up.
Agreed 100%.
It has nothing to do with thanks.
If Gunman A is trying to break into your house in order to shoot two of your family members, nobody would willingly invite Gunman B who intends to kill even more into your house.
Given your metaphor, how can you best protect your family? It beats me.