Honestly, the only thing that would alienate his base is if Trump abandoned christian white nationalism and embraced multiculturalism.
Trump’s base loves him because Trump says (both overtly and via implication) that whites are superior to non-whites, that native born Americans are superior to immigrants and foreigners, that men are superior to women, that christians are superior to muslims, etc.
In fact studies have shown some of the best predictors of Trump support are hostility to out groups. Do you want to treat muslims, blacks, immigrants and women like shit? If so, you are probably a Trump supporter. If you don’t, you probably aren’t.
So if Trump comes out in favor of black lives matter because he says blacks have been historically mistreated, or says Muslims are equal citizens, or that America is a secular nation and not a christian one, or that women are equal to men, etc. that’ll cost him his base.
The only thing that rattled Trump’s base was Trump supporting DACA (well that and some of his 2nd amendment stuff). DACA involves treating brown skin immigrants with dignity. That is the only bridge too far his base has.
Incompetence, treason, criminality, corruption, betraying the constitution? To his base, these are fine. But rejecting christian white nationalism in favor of multiculturalism? His base will never accept that.
True. And since the agenda of Trump supporters consists solely of Pissing Off the Liberals, which Trump is very skilled at, there’s no reason for them to “turn on him” or be dissatisfied with him in any way.
As long as Trump makes liberals angry, his base will remain happy with him. It doesn’t matter whether he’s making liberals angry by actually enacting conservative policies or by praising white supremacists, profiteering off his office, making shady deals with Russian oligarchs, telling flagrant lies every other sentence, or any other form of malicious venality and corruption that liberals get angry about. What’s important to Trump’s base is not what Trump actually happens to be doing, but whether what he’s doing is Pissing Off the Liberals.
I think that his base is so invested emotionally with Trump that they can’t turn on him. A lot of the reason they support him was to stick a finger in the eye of elites who told them they were making a bad choice and they will never admit that the elites were correct. This is, after all, a base that wants Trump to bring back 19th century coal jobs, careful analysis isn’t really their thing.
Best guess (as a non-American): Trump hangs on until the next election, despite being increasingly bizarre, then gets trashed (narrowly) by some nonentity when the “I won’t vote for the other person” crowd decide that Trump is the one they won’t vote for. His base will mostly stay loyal unless the US economy goes into free fall. Which could happen if Trump seriously pisses off the Chinese and they show him how economic warfare works.
Dump Melania, marry a black Muslim woman, switch parties, issue a blanket pardon to all non-white federal prisoners, open the borders to everyone, and strangle a blonde-haired, blue-eyed white baby boy on the Oval Office desk in the middle of the State of the Union Address?
Trump’s base follows some bizarre narrative that the average middle-western white without a college education, (or perversely, the white college millennial who is looking at student debt, or supports Trump “ironically”) is the real overlooked and oppressed faction of American society.
They see The Donald as a simultaneous middle finger to the world, and the last American President, who will set fire to the whole thing. Maddening, because his supporters know deep down that he will destroy the nation, and they see themselves as the best off following an apocalyptic scenario.
Check it: Most likely both coasts would be nuked, and the mid-westerners would inherit what is left of the smoldering United States, and with massive gun-ownership, xenophobia, and blind obedience to the right, they’d have a ball in a Mad Max like anarchic state.
Bottom line, they are playing a zero-sum political gamble, and if they win or lose, their position (in their eyes) validated.
I don’t think so - I see many Trump supporters on Facebook admiringly clicking “like” on all those posts about how US job growth has expanded since Trump took office, how the Dow Jones has been hitting dozens of new highs, how companies are investing in America, etc.
After all, Trump didn’t run on “Make America Destroyed Forever.”
They do believe that, because they are accustomed to unquestioned power and privilege. Now that their power and privilege is being questioned they feel oppressed.
It used to be in America, it went without question that white christian men who were born here were the only true, authentic Americans entitled to 100% rights. Everyone else was either an interlopr/fake American, or only deserved partial rights (women deserve partial rights, men deserve full rights. Muslims deserve law enforcement scrutiny because some of them are terrorists, but white christian men should be left alone by law enforcement despite that demographic also producing a lot of terrorists. Stuff like that).
Now that narrative is being questioned. America is 40% minority now (the electorate is only 30% minority though). We had a black democrat as president (who the GOP convinced themselves was a Muslim from Kenya). To people who think white christian conservative men born in America are the only legit citizens, having to spend 8 years with a black democrats who (to them) was a muslim from Kenya was a lot to bear.
I think just 15 years ago, something like 21% of Americans were white evangelicals and 12% were secular (of all races). Now those numbers are flipped, barely 12% are white evangelicals while over 20% are atheists.
A few decades ago, 81% of Americans were white christians. Now it is less than 45%. White christians are technically a minority group in America now.
Its really not that bizarre, their narrative. It is selfish and cruel, but not bizarre. They are basically saying 'we used to have 100% of the power, now we only have 80% of the power. We want to go back to having 100% again).
The pedophilia thing wouldn’t harm his base, we already have suspicions of that. Even if you had proof his base would just use ‘whattaboutisms’ to get out of it. "YEah but what about pizzagate’. ‘Yeah but what about Bill Clinton and Epstein’. They won’t admit (real) sex crimes are wrong no matter who does them, they’ll just use whataboutisms.
Keep in mind Trump was a pro-choice democrat until recently, so I’m not sure what would cause him to lose support.
I don’t think being gay would do it. I think rejecting christian white nationalism is the only thing his base wouldn’t forgive. If Trump supported the immigration of millions of middle easterners and Africans, if he supported BLM and the NFL protests, if he said Christians are just one faith and Islam is just as valid a faith, if he said women were equals to men, etc. That’d cost him is base. But that is about it. His base will over look pedophilia just so long as white nationalism is being served. My evidence of this is the fact that Roy Moore got 48% of the vote in Alabama.
I read today that the trade war Trump has begun would cost 2.6 million jobs. I don’t know if that is right, but it is, that could seriously disturb his base. The thing is that any change–new tariffs, new trade agreements, etc.–is like to result in fast losers and slow winners. That is, people will lose their jobs right away, but new hires will come only gradually. This happened when NAFTA started, but it was eventually positive for both economies (Mexico was not part of the original agreement). Trump may as well kill NAFTA now since businesses will no longer feel safe to make plans on the assumption it is certain. The uncertainty will be just as damaging as ending it.
Also, you seem to be implying that you believe that he will destroy the nation and trigger an apocalyptic scenario. Where are you? If the answer is “America” and you actually believe what you’re saying, why are you not preparing for this situation right now? Do you have any idea what kind of life you could live in Mexico, the Philippines, shit, even just rural Canada, on the American dollar?
Are you actually in Boston? Nova Scotia is just a short ferry ride from Maine. Dude, get over there now if you actually believe this is going to happen. If I was as convinced of this eventuality as you seem to be, I’d be hiding out in Cape Breton right NOW.
So either you like the idea of dying from radiation poisoning, or you don’t actually believe it’s going to happen. My loonies are on the latter.
Anyway, there are a million and one things that Trump COULD do to make his base turn on him. But he isn’t going to. Republicans have never been happier in the past 50 years than they are right now. His base is NOT going to turn on him. And I do believe he’s going to serve 7 more years (and Pence will quite possibly continue after him) because the Democrats collectively do not show any indication of having their shit together as of now.
I wonder about this. I know someone who supports him because he is a Republican. Period. She has said so. Her parents were Republicans, and she will only and ever vote Republican forever, no matter who the candidate is. IOW, if Hillary had been a Republican, Hillary would have gotten her vote. To this person “Republican” means One of Us–don’t bother me with actual content, policies, etc.
But I don’t think the thump worshippers who show up at his rallies in their MAGA hats and scream their love do so because he currently wears the label “Republican.” They cheer because he attacks (or pretends to) the Coastal Elites and Harvard Grads (you know who) that they think are eroding their way of life (and coming to take their guns). They love thump because he says out loud the racist, ignorant, angry, judgmental, narrow, gut-level bullshit that they’re thinking–even though thump himself doesn’t consistently believe what he says and changes his tune depending on whom he’s addressing, what day of the week it is, and whether he had a satisfying bowel movement that morning.
I’m thinking that the deplorables aren’t loyal to the Republican Party per se. It’s thump’s iconoclastic, irreverent, Bull-in-a-China-Shop Big Mouth that they love, not his party label. They hate anyone they perceive to be above them in the social pecking order and they love that thump (pretends) to call these people out (even while he’s in bed with them). They love the flash of thump and are too stupid to see that he doesn’t have any substance. It’s the bombastic blowhard they love, not his political party label.
So, I think that if thump changed his label to Democrat (or Independent) but **continued **to spout “drain the swamp” rhetoric and even started to promote clearly socialist programs that would help out the deplorables but keep out immigrants and foreigners, they’d still love him. *“Free medical care for all-- but NOT the illegals! We have to build the wall so They won’t come over and take the social benefits that should only be for Americans!” *Heck, if he did this, they’d probably love him even more,
Does this make sense, or am I blowing smoke here? I’m not sure. It’s early. My dog woke me up at 5:30. On a Saturday.
I don’t think you’re wrong. I have figured for a while that Trump won by bringing his new fan club along and attaching them to the existing GOP base. So there are Republicans who are supporting the GOP, and there are fans of what they imagine Trump in particular represents who support him in particular. Neither of these groups is quite monolithic; pro-lifers are not entirely the same bunch as anti-union types, and in the same way “drain the swamp” appeals to a slightly different spread of voters than “build the wall” or “bringing back torture.” Nor are they entirely separate from each other; some of Trump’s particular fanbase were already in the GOP.