Bernie only won a majority in one state: 50.8% in Vermont (after getting 86% in 2016). His next-best primary result was 36.1% in Colorado. He was able to win New Hampshire with 25% of the vote because the mainstream candidates were dividing the vote. One on one now, with no early voting banked, he doesn’t have a prayer. (It’s awesome!)
Bernie DID win the Michigan primary in 2016, so it isn’t inconceivable that he could do so again. He’ll probably have a pretty good showing in the Washington primary. Two good performances would certainly slow down the Biden bandwagon.
But it has to be two good performances. And there’s another thing to consider. Last time I checked (and California still isn’t 100% complete) Biden’s leading Bernie in the popular vote by about 900,000 (4.9 million vs. 4.1 million) If Biden keeps a lead in both the popular vote and delegates, it will be difficult to make a case for Bernie.
Sanders’ best shot is Biden doing something stupid. Biden is known for it, it can happen (I mean, it can happen to anyone, it is more likely with Biden, he has a history of it). I would guess the people helping him are keenly aware of this and strongly advising him to avoid anything like that. Stick to the script, stick to the script, stick to the script…
That and Sanders has never really hit at Biden’s horrible legislative record on a whole slew of issues. Not opinion…stuff Biden has done and never really relented on over a long career. Frankly, he is a republican in all but name. Yet, mysteriously, Biden has gotten a pass on this so far. Probably too late at this point to bring it up and change things but if Sanders wants to have a chance he needs to shine a bright light on Biden’s legislative record which has been a disaster.
We know his path: Win Michigan and hold Washington to as near a tie as possible then slide into the next batch where he’s expected to dominate Florida and probably score wins in the other delegate-rich states.
Yeah, fuck appointing ‘leftist’ judges, health reform, addressing climate change, dealing with income inequality.
Let’s just let Biden be scammed, conned and manipulated by that sociopath mitch McConnell for four years, then act confused why democrats didn’t bother to show up to vote in 2022 and 2024.
Right, because Obama got scammed, conned, and manipulated, and because the Democratic “establishment” is just rolling over and not pushing back against Mitch McConnell.
Here’s a clue: the Democratic party won in 2018, and it wasn’t just AOC/Bernie “progressives” who won. There were progressives and there were moderates of all stripe who got elected, but they are all commonly disgusted with Trump.
What is Bernie going to do that Joe Biden can’t? Shit, Bernie can’t even win a fucking nomination. My real point is this: don’t blame the candidates, blame the voters who don’t support their candidates when they need to be supported.
Bill Clinton supported the Brady Bill in 1994, and how did people support him? By handing him a Republican congress.
Barack Obama finally got health care reform passed in 2009/10 - something that hadn’t happened in decades. And how was he rewarded? By young voters skipping the mid-terms and giving him a GOP congress.
How are you going to have a revolution with young voters when young voters show up for Instagram moments during president election campaigns but can’t be bothered to do the hard work of democracy?
No, it isn’t. If Sanders’ plan is to hope that the Biden campaign collapses and he wins the nomination by default then he doesn’t have a plan. If Sanders wants to be considered a serious nominee, he has to show that he can beat Biden even if Biden is running his best campaign. Sanders needs to demonstrate that he is the best candidate, not merely that he is the last one left standing after everyone else fell down.
Because the nomination doesn’t mean shit. The only important thing is beating Trump in the general election. And we want the strongest nominee for that. A nominee who can beat the other guy; not a nominee who has to hope the other guy will make a mistake.
Ah, yes, the same old Bernie Bro nonsense of calling everyone who isn’t Bernie a Republican. A million dollar bottle of champagne won’t taste as sweet as the tears of the Bros when Biden kicks Bernie’s ass through the rest of the primary season.
Nixon went into a rage when he heard that Biden won his senate race. That was on the same day that Nixon was kicking McGovern’s ass on the way to a 49 state landslide.
Oh, Richard Nixon was a Republican.
Why was that?
I have personally been told that support for Biden is a secret conspiracy by conservative boomers. Because Sanders would be a sure thing to win if he gets nominated and we want Trump to win so we’re supporting Biden because he is guaranteed to lose.
I’ll admit I don’t understand how Sanders is guaranteed to beat Trump if he can’t get enough votes to beat Biden. But then I’m old and I don’t understand the power of youth.
As I pointed out a week ago, sixty-three million people voted for a Republican and ninety-one thousand voted for a Socialist in 2016. So a Democrat who’s a Republican is a smarter choice than a Democrat who’s a Socialist.
While I suspect you correct, I feel Sanders’ basic unlikability may be playing into this. In 2016 Sanders was new to most on the national scene and most voters wanted someone to take on the powers that be. Now, after 3.5 years of DJT, people are tired of a grumpy, humorless person who yells all the time. If Sanders was an affable, backslapping fella who cracked the occasional joke and smiled once in a while there might be more people willing to consider his policies. But he isn’t. He’s exhausting.
He exhausts and grates on me as well, but there are clearly also people who like him personally despite not agreeing with his left-wing socialist leanings. So it’s complicated.
I think Sanders’ basic likability and eloquence will help but I think now is the time for total destruction of his opponent, Biden.
Sanders should talk facts about Biden’s record on Social Security, Iraq, Clarence Thomas (Supreme Court a big deal in your nation).
He’s wide open and Sanders has been very polite and tried to work with Democrats, even though the party is riddled with corporate whores.
I think Sanders’ basic likability and eloquence will help but I think now is the time for total destruction of his opponent, Biden.
Sanders should talk facts about Biden’s record on Social Security, Iraq, Clarence Thomas (Supreme Court a big deal in your nation).
He’s wide open and Sanders has been very polite and tried to work with Democrats, even though the party is riddled with corporate whores.
But not women, of course. Your votes have cooties.
I likability, or the lack of it, is overrated. Sanders channels voter anger to his advantage, which is how he has managed to make it this far despite having ideas that are far outside the mainstream. Speaking purely in terms of the campaign, Sanders has built an impressive organization. His voters are by far more committed to him and his cause than any of the other candidates who have entered the race. I think his personality works to his advantage because of the type of campaign he’s running. He’s running on a platform of radical change, and he resonates with people who are angry and who want the the U.S. to be radically different from what it now is. If he were to trade his authenticity for more personality, he would decline in strength with his base.
Sanders’ problem isn’t his personality; it’s that his campaign, his proposals, his platform - whatever you want to call it - have run into a wall. And that wall is just the simple fact that while most left-leaning and left-center voters strongly agree that Trump needs to go, they quietly disagree with Sanders’ vision for how to change this country, and most of them always have. If you’re following Twitter or Facebook, this might be a surprise, but it’s not a surprise to most people.
And instead of showing some flexibility, Sanders is doubling down even harder, probably because he sincerely believes in what he’s doing and that he believes he can persuade more people if he’d just have a wider audience. That’s commendable, but there’s no evidence at the polls to suggest anything’s going to change in voters’ minds. I can only hope that his ardent supporters can show some flexibility and accept reality. I’d tell them that all is not lost - there’s an opportunity to influence Biden’s campaign and his presidency and rather than stay at home out of spite, I hope most will come around and see the opportunities they have.
While I may disagree about Sanders “likability and eloquence” and preferred candidate I do agree with your advice to him. Now is the time for that.
Throw it all at him.
I don’t think it will help Sanders much but he should give it his all out swinging hard shot with anything that is not outright falsifications.
If it fails or backfires, is instead perceived as desperation and self-interested, and Michigan goes Biden followed Florida, Arizona, and Ohio … then the time is over. Wednesday March 18th would then be the time to take the circle the wagon posture.
If it succeeds? Keep the fight going.
I’d have to reread The Making of the President 1972 for the full details, but the Wikipedia article has some of the details. Nixon couldn’t believe he didn’t have enough coattails to drag Boggs across the finish line after winning such a dominant landslide for the presidency.
I’d have to reread The Making of the President 1972 for the full details, but the Wikipedia article has some of the details. Nixon couldn’t believe he didn’t have enough coattails to drag Boggs across the finish line after winning such a dominant landslide for the presidency.