My prediction: it will follow shortly after his testimony before the Jan 6th committee.
I think his testimony is going to be extremely disruptive. He’ll insult the committee, He’ll use his funny nicknames for them, ‘unselect committee’, ‘crazy Liz’, ‘cryin Adam Kinzinger’, ‘Adam Schitt’, and so on. He’ll refuse to answer questions about the invasion, but instead rant about the stolen election.
After this he will be formally charged with contempt of Congress.
So never.
In two weeks.
Ya had to see that comin’.
My thoughts exactly. If the GOP takes back the house in the midterms, Trump just needs to stall until January when the new Speaker* dissolves the committee. If the Democrats hold onto the house, he’ll just stall and stall and run out the clock for 2 more years, unless the GOP decides as a whole it’s time to pivot to DeSantis and throws Trump under the bus.
*Sorry, Kevin, it’s not gonna be you. You sold out for nothing.
I don’t know about that. Michael Madigan was Illinois House Speaker for three-plus decades and seemed to be under investigation the whole time. The Feds finally indicted him last year.
Trump’s [alleged] crimes are far more obvious because he isn’t anywhere near as skilled an operator.
This is about my take, too, although I think conviction will come later than you estimate. It will depend on Trump’s bail situation. If held without bail (unlikely), then things could move along much more quickly. But if he’s out on bail, he’ll be able to delay the actual trial for quite some time and I expect him to do that.
Once Trump is arraigned, I’d like to see whichever judge handling the case slap a gag order on all parties. I do think this is a real possibility on the basis of (continuing) potential juror taint. It will just about kill Trump, but the threat of being jailed if he violates the order might do the trick.
If only “slapping a gag order on it” meant actually stuffing a gag in his mouth…
A girl can dream.
I expect the first domino to drop will be losing the civil case in New York.
That won’t have immediate criminal implications for him, but it will cripple him financially, and might impact his ability to pay for help with his criminal issues.
Don’t get me wrong, I expect he’ll continue to grift as he always had, and get donations and support (in other words, be able to spend other peoples’ money), but I think he’ll have less of it to spread around for a defense. Or at least to bait people with. “I’m going to pay you big time, don’t worry, look at all of my big buildings and golf courses, I’ll make you rich too.” It’s hard to pull that off when people see that being taken away.
I also feel like this has been a big Ponzi scheme of sorts. Not in a literal sense, where he’s paying off the last guy with the money he’s getting from the new sucker. He just doesn’t pay, period. But in the sense that eventually it catches up to him. We’ve already seen him struggle to get competent defenders because the word is out that nobody gets paid. I think that’ll get worse. And I think the Republican Party will get tired of paying his bills too. They’ve already been saying as much.
Let me say this as well… I am not convinced that everything will be fine if the Republicans take control of the Legislature. Because if they do, they’re doing so despite Trump, not because of him. I think at a certain point they’ll realize it’ll be in their best interests for him to go down also.
I think the biggest part will be showing that he’s not wealthy, and in fact, is in tremendous debt. Legal issues or no, no one will be willing to work with him.
The last lawyer he hired, Kise, wanted $3M up front. It came from Trump’s Save America PAC. So, yes, from donations (or grift, if you want to call it that). And then apparently he didn’t like the advice Kise gave him, so the high-priced legal help got sidelined.
Just watched the last Jan 6 hearing on Youtube. I am finding these riveting.
Cheney mentions possible criminal referrals for “multiple individuals”. This got me wondering who else, besides Trump, will be named in these recommendations. There are many who probably should be but this Committee is careful and they won’t recommend charges unless they are certain the evidence is there. My guesses are John Eastman, Pete Navarro, Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, Jason Miller and Rudy Guiliani. Possibly also Mark Meadows. Jeff Clark is a POS but I am not sure if they have evidence he did anything illegal since he didn’t really get the chance. Charges would be seditious conspiracy and/or obstruction of justice.
Anyone else who might be on the list? Any other charges recommended?
And I would love it if they issued a statement of censure in their final report that Clarence Thomas’s behavior was improper and a conflict of interest although that might be a bit outside their scope.
It’s nice to know that the documents case is one that the new Congress can’t send to the cornfield, like they’ll do with the select committee if MAGA takes the House.
The banks will start calling his loans and it will get ugly (actually, pretty) real fast.
It’ll also get ugly for the banks – if you owe the bank a hundred thousand dollars and can’t pay, you have a big problem; if you owe the bank a hundred million dollars and can’t pay, the bank has a big problem.
Only if you make up the bulk of their loans. If you owe a bank a hundred million dollars, but that bank is worth 50 billion, then it doesn’t have a problem at all.
Especially if you have assets they can seize.
If he doesn’t answer the subpoena, that will also get him charged with contempt of congress. He could end up in the cell next to Steve Bannon.
“You can’t jail a former president for contempt of Congress!”
Sure. But what if we … did?
I’m not sure I follow you.
IMO …
The MAGAs aren’t dead; they’re mostly hanging inside their echo chamber eagerly awaiting the burst of 24/7/365 regular media attention that Trump will get the moment he announces he’s running. I fully expect the same media circus we had to endure in both prior two-year campaigns.
If the Rs take the legislature it will because of MAGA votes (and MAGA-inspired local- and state-level electoral skullduggery) not despite them. And many of those elected will be avowedly MAGA disciples.
To the degree there really still exists an Establishment Republican set of incumbents, candidates, and a corresponding base of voters, they do definitely have a problem with how to survive the wannabe-tyrant phase of their party’s existence. Which probably has another 50 years to run before all the Trump emulators who’ve been so encouraged (and promoted) these last 6-8 years finally age out.
Meanwhile they may have to content themselves with Conservative government with Totalitarian characteristics (to badly bend a famous phrase). Lots of comfy-class people (and ordinary white people) can persuade themselves that a racist police state or massive high-level kleptocracy is still (mostly) in their interests at least in the near term. And near term is all we humans have: 3 score and 10-ish.
No need to use euthanisums, you mean until they fucken die.