WHEN Will This Bear Market End??

We are in the 4th year of a bear market in stocks…this hasn’t happened since 1912! My portfolio is getting hammered…but I cannot see bailing out just yeat.
When o when o Lord? Is this market going to turn around, or are we in for a replay of 1933?

It’ll end when greed overcomes fear.

We need a return of Investor Confidence. Whether or not it is justified, the Investors have no confidence in a Bush/Gop administration. I know I bailed- I just wish I had done so completely, rather than half-assed. Yeah, I know the Market was already heading that way- the bubble had burst. But still- track the market from the day we knew GWB had won. Bears everywhere! :smiley:

So we need a Dem in the White House. Yes, I know that to some economists it makes no sense*- but since when have the “Bulls & Bears” always made sense?

*Everything else being even- Tax cuts should, in theory, boost the economy. They are clearly not working. Thus- I’d say “everything else” is simply NOT “even”. Hell, even Greenspan agrees here.

Tax cuts don’t do a whole lot of good in restoring customer confidence, when only the richest 1% of American’s get the largest benefit from them…
The GOP is really screwing up, and they are gonna be massacred in the next election unless they get Bush to fix this economy…

God I hope so. Quite frankly I think this is a main reason why George is pushing for war. IMHO, I think he thinks it will keep him in office during the next election.

And his bullshit tax cut policy was broken down right quick to show how the upper crust is getting gladhanded AGAIN. I can’t believe he was able to address it with a striaght face.

Where’s a good Democratic B movie actor when you need him?

Um, folks, rich people benefit more from tax cuts than do poor people simply because of mathematics; rich people pay more in taxes in the first place, so when taxes get cut, guess who benefits more?

Yes, that is right, TaxGuy- almost. If indeed, there was a “everyone gets their taxes cut by 10%” tax cut- then indeed, those who pay $50000 in taxes would get a $5000 tax cut, those who paid $5000 would get $500 cut, and those who paid only $50 would only get $5. And, that can be argued as fair. Everyone gets a cut- the same % overall, just that that % comes out to bigger bucks for the richest. I can buy into that.

But what Bush did (in effect) was give those who paid $50000 got a $10000 cut, those who paid $5000 got a $50 cut, and those who paid $50 got no cut. In effect, that’s what having no taxes on dividends would result in.

So although you’re right in one way, you’re wrong in another. The Bush cuts did not give everyone the same % cut- the cuts were heavily biased towrds the richest.

Then again, you have to remember that the Federal Income tax does not exist in a vacuum. There are also Payroll, State & Local taxes. As a % of income, the Middle class & poor pay a much higher amount of Payroll taxes. So, even an “even 10% FIT cut across the board” woudl still not cut the taxes evenly “across the board”. In fact, in overall tax burden, the highest 20% of earners pay about the same as the lowest 20%.


Stock market likes Democrats.




A sample consisting of yourself alone is a poor proof. Frankly, the administration has nothing to do with it. The market is down as part of its cyclical nature. This is compounded by the fact that the speculative bubble was extreme, the uncertainty surrounding the election, the Enron debacle, September 11th, the larger ongoing accounting scandals, the economic downtown, Iraq, North Korea, high oil prices, and low interests leading money towards real estate.


The fact that your naive interpretation is nonsensical is also not a compelling argument for it’s veracity. The fact that you don’t understand it, while it may seem remarkable to you does not mean that it is beyond human comprehension.


What tax cut are you referring to that is not working?

With what part of your analysis is Greenspan agreeing and can I see a cite?

Bullshit. Cite?

As for the Op, it is my opinion that the Iraqi and North Korean situations are having a detrimental effect that won’t be alleviated in a meaningful way until they are resolved. I think we have the rest of the ingredients necessary for an upturn.

When will it end? Sometime between 2007 and 2010. Until then, keep most of your money in bonds.

If you look at the long-term history of the stock market and ignore short-term fluctuations, it typically runs in a cycle of about twenty years. We get bull markets of slighty longer than ten years, then periods of stagnation. Simply put, the market can’t go up again until there is a net flow of money inwards, and right now there isn’t.

The market started its recent illness before the end of the Clinton admin. It meltdowned a few times, and the DAY of Tears didn’t help matters. The world is pretty unstable right now, but I expect after Iraq things will warm up.

Cite? Bush gave the rich a 20% (of total income) tax cut? I must have missed this. :rolleyes

This is just a comletely ignorant statement.

Really? Is that why the stock market in the 1990s didn’t start making huge gains until 1994, the year Repubs were voted into Congress?

While the current Iraq situation is having a negative effect, the underlying problems are so large that they will dwarf that.

ITR may be correct, but I think the bottom is coming in the next year or so. It has begun it’s final journey within the last few months. And it has nothing to do in the long run with war.

The housing market, as Greenspan warned yesterday, is the final “bubble” out there. And it’s a bubble.

It’s gonna get hammered in the next 12-24 months and there will be weeping in the streets.

Only then will the bottom come for this market. Capitulation. It hasn’t happened yet.

If you failed to figure out what’s a bubble and what’s real this time around(the last 3-5 years), do your homework, learn about history, trust your newly honed instincts rather than the pundits who are quoted daily. There will always be another time. Be prepared. But learn for yourself, rather than listen to “experts.”

IMHO, no matter how much homework you do, how much history you learn, and now honed your instincts are it is impossible to predict the market.

The experts have gone through college and graduate programs specifically studying finance or economics. They then spend an entire career examining the markets. Still, they cannot predict when a bear market will end. It is unreasonable to think that an amateur can do better.

Remember Yogi: it ain’t over 'til it’s over.
Or the Old Farmer’s Almanac: stick to your winter flannels until your winter flannels stick to you.
Translated: keep it in a bank/money market until it starts to shoot up so much you can’t stand to keep it there earning “merely” x%.
Then hope it doesn’t turn around and bite you in the ass.
That’s about the best you can do.

I agree, based upon earnings, many stocks are still “overvalued”. But, I think we can all agree, earnings are not everything. Who worried about earnings when Amazon was at $120.00/share?
In this bear market, we have $6 trillion sitting around in CDs, bank deposits, earning very little…how to we get that money to flow back into stocks? I wish the government would realize just how deadly this uncertainty over Iraq is…I see the economy as basically “on hold” until this whole thing with Iraq is decided. I don’t think we can take more than a few more months of this…retail businesses are failing all over, car sales are down, and house prices are starting to drop…that’s the real danger signal!

It will end as soon as we vote GWB out of office… 2004.

Happened with his dad too.