I went with ST. The public has been kinda saturated with superhero movies, Iron man specifically and Robert Downey Jr the last few years. And the last Iron man movie (not counting Avengers) was kinda meh. So I’ll guess ST will make more money then the previous film in its franchise, and Iron Man will make less then the last Iron Man movie.
In any case, nice to see some sci-fi movies this year that aren’t superhero films (I like superhero movies, but they’re getting kinda tired).
Fun fact: there’s only year in the last decade where the highest grossing film wasn’t a sequel.
I picked Pacific Rim, because it’s got giant (human-operated) robots fighting giant monsters. I’ve no doubt that Iron Man 3 will make a lot of coin, but I’ve got a strong feeling that Pacific Rim will be huge.
I’d really like to see Shane Black do well with Iron Man 3, though, and as much as I enjoyed the first (rebooted) Star Trek movie, I don’t think the sequel’s going to be one of the top two movies of the summer.
I went with the kiddy family movie, “Despicable Me 2.” Not the best franchise for that bet, but kid-friendly cartoon family movie sequels do well in summer release. Probably should have went with “Iron Man 3.”
Judging from the trailers, I think Star Trek could have problems. The basic plot seems to be Kirk vs a space terrorist and I think that’s a bad fit for the franchise.
Remember when every mission the Enterprise was on did NOT involve saving the Federation or the Earth? How did they get by before the Enterprise? Also, I think they’ve exploited large ships and space debris falling next to the Golden Gate Bridge QUITE enough for one space movie franchise.
See out new life, new civilizations. . . to boldly bed what no human has bedded before. Respect your roots!
I don’t know which will gross the most, but I didn’t know there were sequels to 300, Machete, and RED, and I’ll be looking out for all three. I know my nephew will enjoy the Percy Jackson flick.
I was really looking forward to Despicable Me when one teaser trailer made it look like the Minions were being abducted by aliens. I’m a bit less excited now that it looks like another villain is the main antagonist again. Still going to see it in theatre, though.
But the answer to the OP is going to be Iron Man 3. The world is nowhere near peak Downey saturation, IMO. Cumberbatch may be the better Sherlock, but he’s not the bigger box office draw.
One critical question is–which of the films in the OP will be in 3D? That automatically gives any film a financial edge, so hard to imagine the top film not having that option.
MovieMogul, I thought the same thing and, before making my choice, looked up what I thought would be the top five films: Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Man of Steel, Monsters University, and Pacific Rim. They will all be in 3D. The Lone Ranger, as far as I can tell, will not be in 3D, which definitely puts it behind those others.
I picked Iron Man 3 but I think The Wolverine might surprise a lot of people. Not to sound like too much of a nerd and admittedly I’ve only seen a trailer but this is based on the ultimate Wolverine. Wolverine in Japan with Mariko and Yukio is where the iconic Wolvie was born. The best story, the best stories were all based on this interpretation not the travesty in the comics now. The comic book nerd outpouring may surprise us. Or not.
I hesitated between Despicable Me 2 and Iron Man 3, went with IM3 and am now second guessing myself. Family movies are hard to beat, much less competition.
In my estimation, the top three films will be Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, and Star Trek, probably in that order.
For Star Trek, I think it’s gathered some new fans, but it seems like it pissed off as many older Trekkies as it may have drawn in. I think it will do well, but it will compete against other films that a similar demographic are interested in, so it just can’t win the box office.
I think Iron Man 3 is actually hurt by The Avengers, not helped. I think a lot of people will be looking forward to the next Avengers movie and will see Iron Man 3 as an insufficient substitute. The first movie was surprisingly good, but the second didn’t live up to the first. It is helped by not having much competition though, which is why I think it will do better than Star Trek.
I think Man of Steel will probably take the top spot for a few reasons. First, I think Nolan’s name alone will give it enough credibility that people who may not otherwise be interested will go see it. I think that people have been particularly disappointed with the most recent Superman film, and even far enough back to the Reeve days. After seeing the abomination that was Batman and Robin and what Nolan did with that franchise, given even how much more iconic Superman is and how it’s been even longer since he’s had a good film, I think people will be eager to see it. That all said, I don’t think it will pull Avengers or Dark Knight type money, but I think it’ll still be around 400-450.
Just to give an idea of the sort of numbers we’re working with here - each of the first two Iron Man movies finished safely over $300 million domestic box office. The second was a worse movie than the first, and normally you’d have some worries about downside on that account, but it wasn’t an actively terrible movie. Additionally, you had The Avengers pull over $600 million last year. Unless the reviews on the third movie are absolutely terrible - we’re talking under 30% on Rotten Tomatoes, worse than any of the movies in this corner of the Marvel Universe have been recently - the worst case scenario seems to be $300 million for Iron Man 3. As the first true blockbuster release of the summer, with little/no direct competition either in the release week or the following week, this could easily break $400 or $500 million domestic without shocking anyone.
So if you’re picking anything other than IM3, you’re betting on that movie making, at absolute minimum, $300 million. I think you can make plausible arguments for Star Trek Into Darkness, Monsters University, Man of Steel, and Despicable Me 2, in roughly descending order of how shocked I’d be for any of those to ‘win’; at least two of those are very likely to clear $300mm, at least. Hangover pt III is also on the borderline of that category, but it’s coming off a general disappointment from part 2, and it’s coming out against Fast and Furious 6, which is going to have significant audience overlap. The Lone Ranger would be a surprise, but not beyond reason, if you’re using the first three Pirates movies as comparables; however, if you look at The One With No Orlando Bloom, you realize how $300 million is actually kind of high. Pacific Rim is oh-so-tempting for the sci-fi fan in me, but Del Toro has never directed anything that made more than $83 million domestic. Wolverine would have to do 30% better than the highest of the X-Men movies, and/or 70% better than the last Wolverine movie, which seems… ambitious. And keep in mind that all of these are just to hit that $300 million worst case scenario for Iron Man 3 - if Shane Black does his thing, the pre-release buzz gets even more insane than it already is, and it comes out to 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s going to have more clearance on the field.
The other thing I know, as I just had an excuse to go through the list yet again, is that there are a lot of movies that I’m looking forward to this summer. Yay! Also, you can save this post for when IM3 ‘bombs’ to the tune of $220 million and a seventh place summer finish.
I was picking total box office, not US domestic…not only is foreign box office a huge component of blockbusters, but we have lots of non-US posters here.
Definitely Iron Man 3. There is a still a huge amount of love of the Avengers out there, and who doesn’t love RDJ as Tony Stark?
Star Trek 2 will probably come second, but I don’t think the box office take will come close to IM3. I thought the first one was distinctly average. The trailers for the sequel make it look a bit better, but I think I’ll wait for the DVD
Likewise, I think Man Of Steel will be hurt by the lacklustre ‘Superman Returns’
I could see Pacific Rim being the surprise hit of the summer