Which 2013 Summer Film Will Make the Most?

Cafe Society
61

:eek: What a great surprise to see! I saw it twice in the theater but the theater was practically empty both times. I just assumed that it, like so many very good movies, wasn’t supported by the kinds of people who don’t go to see movies like this but still feel compelled to say ridiculous things like “They don’t make 'em like they used to” and “Everything’s all SuperHero this and Comic Book that and remakes/reboots/sequels/prequels the other, why aren’t there any original movies for grown ups? Huh?” I’m glad to be wrong. It was obviously supported. I just went to the wrong screenings.

I’m thrilled that this fine movie did so well! I don’t even like sports, but I tend to like well-made sports movies, and IMO 42 belongs up there near the Top 10 best.

62

Trois
Iron Man III: $372,434,000
Star Trek Into Darkness: $155,827,000
The Great Gatsby: $117,747,000

New:
Fast and Furious 6: $120,019,000
Hangover part III: $63,004,000
Epic: $42,600,000
Overall, I’m not surprised at Epic’s poor showing. I love movie trailers and I’ve heard very little about this film. I wouldn’t be shocked to find F&F6 beating Star Trek by the time Summer closes.

63

Box office wise, Star Trek is a giant disappointment thus far, and it’s probably going to finish out of the top five for the summer, after looking really good as a potential dark horse for number one early on. Don’t wait four years between your sequels, apparently… and don’t release on the first beautiful weekend of summer on the east coast, while Iron Man is still in the theaters. Similarly, the crappy weather this past weekend probably helped out F&F6, which surprised quite pleasantly and should beat out the last movie by quite a bit, likely ending up a top 5 movie for the whole summer.

Equipoise, I’m going to split the difference with you on 42: I’m similarly happy that it succeeded to the degree that it did because I also hope it contributes to more Original Grown Up Movies in the future. On the other hand, I didn’t like it that much, in the same vein of most of the other sports movies that have been released over the past few years. There’s an expected Sports Movie Narrative, and they’re all going to follow it, regardless of how our understanding of the sport has changed in the past several decades. (In Alanis-style irony, Moneyball also fell prey to this to some degree.) I am a pretty big sports fan, though, so that obviously colors my feelings about them as well.

64

An update with a list of some of the most profitable summer movies so far:

Mama - $71,628,180 domestic gross - $15,000,000 budget - 478%
The Call - $51,752,090 domestic gross - $13,000,000 budget - 398%
Identity Thief - $134,506,920 domestic gross - $35,000,000 budget - 384%
Evil Dead - $54,136,855 domestic gross - $17,000,000 budget - 318%
Safe Haven - $71,349,120 domestic gross - $28,000,000 budget - 255%

For comparison:
Iron Man 3 - $394,316,000 domestic gross - $200,000,000 budget - 197%
Oz The Great and Powerful - $233,652,000 domestic gross - $215,000,000 budget - 109%
Fast & Furious 6 - $202,946,000 domestic gross - $160,000,000 budget - 127%
Star Trek Into Darkness - $200,140,000 domestic gross - $190,000,000 budget - 105%
The Croods - $181,699,000 domestic gross - $135,000,000 budget - 135%

And the bombs:
G.I. Joe: Retaliation - $121,884,000 domestic gross - $130,000,000 budget - 94%
Oblivion - $88,472,000 domestic gross - $120,000,000 budget - 74%
A Good Day to Die Hard - $67,349,198 domestic gross - $92,000,000 budget - 73%
Jack the Giant Slayer - $65,144,844 domestic gross - $195,000,000 budget - 33%
After Earth - $46,592,000 domestic gross - $130,000,000 budget - 35%

65

Why are you doing US domestic instead of all box office?

66

Domestic was simpler. But I’ll concede total world grosses would change the picture. A lot of high budget movies have overseas appeal.

Mama - $146,428,180 world gross - $15,000,000 budget - 976%
Dark Skies - $23,413,575 world gross - $3,500,000 budget - 670%
Iron Man 3 - $1,196,583,326 world gross - $200,000,000 budget - 598%
Evil Dead - $95,340,562 world gross - $17,000,000 budget - 561%
Spring Breakers - $25,578,771 world gross - $5,000,000 budget - 512%
Identity Thief - $173,965,010 world gross - $35,000,000 budget - 497%
The Croods - $570,249,007 world gross - $135,000,000 budget - 422%
Fast & Furious 6 - $584,512,580 world gross - $160,000,000 budget - 365%
A Good Day to Die Hard - $304,654,182 world gross - $92,000,000 budget - 331%
G.I. Joe: Retaliation - $365,500,119 world gross - $130,000,000 budget - 281%
The Hangover Part III - $272,837,370 world gross - $103,000,000 budget - 265%
Oblivion - $279,573,925 world gross - $120,000,000 budget - 233%
Oz The Great and Powerful - $490,671,832 world gross - $215,000,000 budget - 228%
Star Trek Into Darkness - $376,266,194 world gross - $190,000,000 budget - 198%
Olympus Has Fallen - $133,191,179 world gross - $70,000,000 budget - 190%
Epic - $189,330,559 world gross - $100,000,000 budget - 189%
Jack the Giant Slayer - $197,671,860 world gross - $195,000,000 budget - 101%

67

It certainly explains why a lot of crap gets made. I’m sure the Smurfs was very profitable at $143M domestic gross, but at $563M worldwide it becomes a gold mine. The Croods on your list is another good example.

68

I thought The Croods was pretty good, clever and a lot of fun. I’ve seen 10* of those 17 movies and liked them all in varying degrees, ranging from “came out of nowhere and will end up in my top 5 favorites of the year” (Spring Breakers) to “surprised I liked it as much as I did” (Croods, Oblivion) to “ultimately disappointing, but I liked it well enough” (Oz, Jack).

*Saw from that list, in rough order of preference:

Spring Breakers (you might laugh, but I thought it was brilliant)
Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
The Croods
Epic
Oblivion
Mama
Oz The Great and Powerful
Dark Skies
Jack the Giant Slayer

69

I knew I should have gone with Iron Man 3 in the poll.

It’s weird, it’s only June and yet it feels like the summer movie season is almost over. It’s an irrational feeling I know, because there are still many movies to come.

70

Here are the YTD worldwide grosses:

Interesting to see that the Die Hard series still carries a lot of weight internationally.

71

I think we need to stick a fork in this debate. Iron Man 3 has taken all the money this Summer and it’s only July 1. It’s sitting at over $400 million and the next closest has just a bit over $200.

72

Yeah, I can’t honestly see any movie which will even come close. I’ll keep an eye on Monsters and Despicable, but I don’t think they’ll do it.

73

I have to admit I never would have picked Fast & Furious 6 as doing this well (#4 domestically and #2 worldwide for 2013). Who would have guessed this old franchise (or Vin Diesel) still had so much life left in them?

74

not ready yet

75

Sorry about that …

Anyway, I bookmarked this thread during its active discussion with the intent to revisit it once Labor Day weekend arrived. Here’s the SDMB prediction, based on the poll data:
[ol]
[li]Iron Man 3 [/li][li]Star Trek Into Darkness[/li][li]World War Z[/li][li]Man of Steel[/li][li]Monsters University[/li][/ol]

Here are the actual numbers, from [Box Office Mojo](Title Domestic Foreign Total Production Budget), in millions:



Movie Title	Domestic Gross	Foreign Gross	Total Gross	Production Budget
Iron Man 3	$408.60 	$805.70 	$1,214.30 	$200 
Despicable Me 2	$351.60 	$455.10 	$806.70 	$76 
Man of Steel	$290.30 	$359.50 	$649.80 	$225 
Monsters U.	$261.80 	$428.40 	$690.20 	n/a
Fast & F 6	$238.60 	$548.10 	$786.70 	$160 
Star Trek ID	$227.40 	$231.30 	$458.70 	$190 
World War Z	$199.00 	$327.20 	$526.20 	$190

Disney/Marvel just may have a profitable franchise on their hands.

The lackluster performance of “Star Trek Into Darkness,” especially the foreign gross compared to that of other movies, is somewhat of a surprise to me.

My choice, “Pacific Rim,” did about $400 million worldwide. I chose … poorly.

76

Paramount really took a beating this year. Its franchise releases were Star Trek and GI Joe and neither lived up to expectations. World War Z did okay but it was an expensive production that just barely turned a profit domestically. The studio’s attempts to start new franchises like Pain & Gain, Jack Reacher, and Hansel & Gretel didn’t catch on. Both its summer comedy - The Guilt Trip - or its animated feature - Rise of the Guardians - were buried by other movies in those genres. And losing the Iron Man franchise to Buena Vista and seeing it be such a hit was salt in the wounds.

77

The Star Trek sequel did okay - it made roughly the same profit as the first movie, and another sequel was greenlighted. World War Z actually lost a shitload of money if you only take into account domestic box office, however after the foreign take it also did fine after all the hand-wringing and dire predictions before it opened. Interestingly, these two movies are being bundled into a double feature that opened up tonight for the price of one ticket.