Other than the POTUS election, which down ballot elections are worth keeping an eye on? I’m particularly interested in races where prominent Republicans that are well known for being obstructionist, favoring policies of voter suppression, favoring racist policies, or generally being a thorn in the side of Democrats are in tough races that they might lose. Is there any races that might go the other way, where Democrats might lose a seat they currently hold?
I’ll start with the Senate races, with Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina being potential Democratic gains. Nevada seems like it might be in danger of going the other way. In the House, one race I’ve heard about being interesting is Darrell Issa’s run for reelection. It would be nice to see him lose. What other races would be good ones to keep an eye on? Is Sherrif Joe running again, and might he lose this time? Any other races you all can think of, whether for the House, a governor’s race, or a prominent local office? What about ballot initiatives or referendums? I’m making a list of races to keep an eye on election night, and since Clinton is likely to wrap things up early, I want to have a long list of other races to keep an eye on the rest of the night.
FL-13 (a district I lived in when it was FL-10) is an interesting one. That’s C.W. Bill Young’s old seat; he had been Congressman there since 1970. Add in Bill Cramer before him, and the last year that district elected a Democrat was 1964. The current Congressman for that seat, David Jolly, is behind in the polls to former governor Charlie Crist. Overall it’s a pretty moderate district; the usual line on Young is that he kept getting elected because he was good at bringing home the bacon. Jolly has no such reputation, and there’s a good chance that the Dems will win that one (even though Crist has a well-deserved reputation as a weathervane).
I’m keeping an eye on Steve King and Charles Grassley in Iowa. It helps that they represent my hometown. Unfortunately, both seem very likely to retain their seats.
Colorado’s 6th District
In the suburbs of Denver it is about as centrist as you can get around here. Morgan Carroll (D) has been working her way up through the State Senate and this is the logical next step for her running against the incumbent Mike Coffman ®. Her record is definitely pro-citizen and anti-special interest. Her disadvantages are that she received 10,500 fewer voted in the primary than Coffman (both ran unopposed) and it is always tough to beat an incumbent.
Coffman went from the state assembly and state executive offices (State & Treasury) to be a Representative. He is a veteran that took breaks from office to serve in the Gulf Way and the War in Iraq. He is obviously more qualified politically BUT after redistricting he has won his district by only a margin of 52%-48% twice and Carroll is definitely the Populist choice (I’m a Pub and I would vote for her) while Coffman has done most of his work supporting veterans. Not sure how that particular area voted for Bernie but she should definitely get the Sanders-voters support.
Overall I predict a VERY close race with the Dems picking up this seat. If that happens then it will be a 4-3 majority for the Dems if the Presidental election goes to the House.
Take a look at Illinois 10th congressional district. Chicago northern suburbs.
An affluent area that likes moderate Republicans, but goes Democratic in presidential races. If incumbent representative Bob Dold loses here, it could be a sign that the Democrats are going to take the House.
The NH senate race is too close to call. Ayotte seems to have pulled the ejection handle on the Trumptanic just in the nick of time, and the RNC will airdrop pallets of cash to blanket the airwaves. It will probably come down to some combination of GOTV efforts and intangibles like someone bursting into flames at the next debate.
Our congress races aren’t that exciting. A bunch of forever Democrat incumbents who ignore the opposition.
But our mayor is an incumbent vs a Republican, although the mayor’s race is independent. I forget how it works that way. Anyway, the big issue is our light rail, where we’ve run out of money and now can only get it to halfway to downtown Honolulu. Yep, it will end at a bus depot 4 miles from downtown and 8 miles from Waikiki. You know, the two places where most people work.
The feds, who’ve kicked in half of the money, are all “No, it has to go downtown or we pull funding”. So, the new mayor has figure out where to get that extra money. Most of the pillars and track are already up in the suburbs around Pearl Harbor.
The Indiana senate race for Dan Coathanger’s old seat is interesting. A guy named Todd Young who is a rabid pro-gun, anti-abortion type is running for the seat, and I actually voted Republican in the primary to vote against Young. At that point, Barron Hill was the unchallenged Democrat opponent, who I liked, but Hill dropped. Lo, who should step in, but former governor, Evan Bayh, son of former senator Birch Bayh, the only person besides the founding fathers to have authored more than one constitutional amendment (the 25th and the 26th).
Young has been running attack ads that are out-and-out lies, where he accuses Bayh of having been a lobbyist for causes the Right doesn’t like. Bayh was never a lobbyist, and it’s very easy to check. Meanwhile, as a congressional representative, Todd Young has done things like vote to lower social security benefits, and that’s one thing that even gun rights people value more than their right to shoot unarmed deer. Young also committed tax fraud at one point, while he was in office, and Bayh has been making a lot of hay of it in his own attack ads. Plus, Bayh has lots of positive ads, and Young has few-- the ones he does mostly just keep reiterating that he was a Marine, and show him jogging a lot. Evan Bayh was a very popular governor. This is a good chance for the Dems to pick up a senate seat.
It is an interesting race. It’s interesting for effects beyond just potentially swinging the seat from red to blue though. Bayh is very much a centrist. In his previous Senate service he was a member of the Senate Centrist Coalition, which was bipartisan. He founded the Moderate Dem Working Group (sometimes seen as the Senate parallel of the Blue Dog Working Group.)
Washington Initiative 732 is also interesting. It’s a carbon tax that, surprisingly, is facing a close vote because it’s not supported by a lot of Washington environmental groups. The implementation is revenue neutral. The new carbon taxes are offset partially by sales and business tax cuts. Some of the revenue is directed to expanding the state EITC program.