Other than your own district, which House races are you most interested in seeing the outcome? Given Steve King’s recent behavior, I’m going to pay close attention to the Iowa 4th district. I’ll also be watching California’s 48th, which is Dana Rohrbacher’s district. Which other races around the country do you all find interesting?
Beto v. Cruz. Mostly because I have a huge crush on Beto.
Beto vs. Cruz is also the race I’m most interested in, but the OP said House races.
In the House, I’m not too interested in any one race, but in the bottom-line number.
Early bellweather House races from states with polls that close first. Should give us some idea how much of a swap in party power there is going to be.
I think Beto has a much better chance than 538 is giving him, but the business with the voting machines changing straight ticket Democratic votes to Cruz does have me worried. I live in a fairly conservative part of Texas, the 27th district where the Republican running for House is given an over 99% chance of winning by 538. Even in the typically Republican parts of the district, however, the yard signs are about 50/50 for Beto and Cruz. I also know several people who usually don’t vote who went out and voted for Beto. Anecdotes do not equal data, but I am cautiously optimistic :D.
I’m also eagerly watching to see Wexton beat the shit out of Comstock in NoVA. I actually ran into Barbara Comstock last night at my kid’s Tae Kwon Do studio. She was incredibly rude to me. Not that I would have voted for her anyway. But it makes me feel better that she will hopefully be out of a job.
Dave Brat R (incumbent) v Abigail Spanberger D in VA-07 is interesting and looks to be close.
Brat is the Teabagger/Carpetbagger who famously upset Eric Cantor in a primary a while back. Spanberger is ex-CIA and grew up in the district.
VA-02, VA-05, VA-07, and VA-10, as they’re all in my state. Living in the 10th, I can tell you Comstock is a goner, but the other three range from R+3 to R+6, and I hope they’ll flip today. Hopefully they’ll serve as bellwethers for Democratic performance(they all close at 7:00 Eastern).
Besides our own district many of us in smaller states are looking at all the races in our state. Other than that I will just be looking at nationwide totals.
CA-39. Ed Royce’s old district. Grew up there, parents still live there. Supposedly a coinflip based on polling; longtime R district but trending left lately (went for Clinton in 2016).
Well CA48 is my district and it’s going to be close. There are planes flying overhead with banners urging people to vote Democratic, crazy people standing on corners waving Trump signs (seriously, if you had seen this guy’s eyes, you wouldn’t object to using the term “crazy”). The lines at the polls were 10x what they normally are for a midterm.
Other than that, I’m watching Nunes up in CA-22. Not that there’s a chance he’ll lose and Katie Porter in CA-45 mostly because I’ve grown to viscerally hate Mimi Walters because of all the ads she’s bought on my kids youtube channels. It’s a Minecraft channel! Nobody over the age of 18 is watching!
Dana Rohrabacher’s district in CA
Steve King’s in IA
Paul Ryan’s old district in WI
Greg Gianforte’s in MT
Ah, the revenge districts.
WA 8. Not my district, but close enough I get bombarded with TV ads.
Pretty much I’d declare victory if only 1 of those seats flipped, and all seem to be within possible reach.
IIRC KY-6th is the 1st bellwether whose polls close – at 6 PM. That could tell us a lot.
Two races to watch when select polls close at 6pm Eastern.
KY-06: If McGrath wins there might be a blue wave coming.
IN-09: If Watson wins look out for a blue tsunami.
The Dem in my district MN-5 will probably get 80% of the vote so that wasn’t going to be too interesting anyway (other than the fact that it is kind of interesting that a Somali-American Muslim woman is being voted into the U.S. House of representatives).
But a few of the more rural districts in MN are much closer and interesting:
MN-1 - 538 has Dan Feehan(D) beating Jim Hagedorn® by less than 1% to replace Tim Walz(D) who is likely to win the MN Governorship.
MN-2 - 538 has Angie Craig(D) beating incumbent Jason Lewis® by 6.4%
MN-3 - 538 has Dean Phillips(D) beating incumbent Erik Paulsen® by 6.2%
The others are less interesting:
MN-4 is Solid D, MN-5(see above), MN-6 Solid R, MN-7 Likely D, MN-8 Likely R.
Paul Ryan’s old seat in WI
Steve KKKing in Iowa.
Devil Nunes in CA.
I want to see if Colin Allred can give Pete Sessions an actual run for his money in Texas 32.