The only thing I can find is that his daughter would be the favorite in a peaceful transition if Kim died. I wonder if she could be the ruthless leader her father is? In a country where the slightest opposition to the leader is eliminated are there any popular heroes in the wings? I guess that would take a revolution to happen.
Most likely there’d be some Death of Stalin-style war of succession between several party or military strongmen, and one of them would end up the winner of this fight for power. Impossible to say who that would be, especially from abroad.
His sister Kim Yo Jong is a possibility:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/21/opinions/kim-jong-un-sister-kim-yo-jong-lee/index.html
Yeah. Right now the sister is heir apparent. Depending on how hold she and Kim Jong Un get while he yet rules, the sister may become increasingly implausible.
The idea there’s some populist hero someplace indicates you need to read a couple books or journal articles on NK. Nothing like that is even remotely possible inside their prison-country.
One major problem either the daughter or the sister would have with taking over: being female, and Asian cultures tend to be very patriarchal. North Korea is also, so far as I’ve heard, decades behind the times as far as any societal shifts.
Even North Korea isn’t fully isolated from big international trends. The image inside this link shows it:
Also note that Kim has been seen regularly with his young (teen?) daughter lately, she’s been getting a lot of internal media attention. The real question is how well a teen girl would fare in a real NK political knock-down death match, Japanese manga warrior traditions notwithstanding…
From the clips I have seen, she is one scary-looking woman. But I also wonder how much of that is put on, as required to seem sufficiently tough to be the heir apparent. The daughter does not yet seem to have mastered that steely-jawed look.
How long will Kim Jong Un last? My impression is that he may not be all that healthy.
I suppose someone is going to ask why I think that–since he only weighs 300 pounds…
I think it could be done, but Yo Jong would have to be particularly brutal to compensate for it. The fact that she’s a woman means her hold on power would be more precarious than for any of her male predecessors, so it’s got to be a reign of terror.
Don’t forget, however, that it may boil down to how the other people in the top ranks see things. The daughter may be seen as a convenient puppet for the brass to back (I wonder if this is how her daddy got the job in the first place), while having a strong-willed leader with a chip on her shoulder would be dangerous, especially if she sees anyone already in a powerful position as a rival to be dealt with. Insecurity over not being the next in direct line may be a factor. If she took over watch for the daughter to disappear - hopefully a bit more discreetly than her uncle.
Palace politics are always fun… from a distance.
But also somewhat shorter than average? It’s BMI that matters. A few years ago he was offline a while for what was alleged to be a medical issue.
One thing to remember is that North Korea is the world’s only necrocracy. It is still officially ruled by Kim Il Sung. With that in place I think there is a better chance than people think of a Kim woman being in charge as a direct heir to the Supreme Ruler as his “placeholder”.
It is pretty hard to guess what the reality is inside NK.
But one might reasonably assume things operate with all the usual human foibles. One female possible successor is difficult. Two makes for some intense survival politics.
So Kim du jour rules with the consent of the military. He will be pretty sure that if he was to wake up one day and decide that the borders should be opened and peace with the South signed off, that by the end of the day there would be an announcement of a sudden medical emergency and later demise of the dear leader.
Both sister and daughter will be acutely aware of this, and how the same fate might await them.
A power vacuum is in no-one’s interest. Except for those that see opportunity. Which would be competing members of the military hierarchy. So the obvious tactic for sister and daughter will be to cement relationships with the entrenched military leaders and paint a path of certainty and stability. They should be doing this now. The problem is if the two women fail to present a unified pair with clear roles. If there is any tension about power between them, one can be certain that each will seek support and factions within the military hierarchy will form about each, with some lesser members seeing the path to greater power when the time comes. That and a clear incentive that that time come sooner rather than later. The result of this would most likely be yet another unfortunate accident or medical emergency.
If this happens on of the two contenders won’t survive. Possibly yet more unfortunate medical emergencies. Either that, or a very public show trial and execution. They do seem to enjoy that sort of thing. This scenario is a good incentive for the two to try to create a solid relationship with clear bounds for each one’s role. That is going to require a lot of fortitude and luck to pull off for an entire lifetime. If either have children all bets would be off.
The obvious answer is early assassination, before there is a problem.
Best answer is to pull up a chair and break out the popcorn.
Standard palace intrigue is to eliminate any rivals, not for #1 candidate to forge an alliance with possible #2.
Henry VIII was a classic example of this - I have a book “Lisle Letters” collecting the letters of Lord Lisle, one of the last of the Plataganets. Henry was well aware how tenuous his dad’s claim to the throne was, so made a point of ensuring anyone who could become a figurehead for a rival faction was out of commission. We have Lisle’s letters because they were all collected when he was arrested on suspicion of treason and were put into the archives afterwards.
The last thing the more powerful generals want is to be ruled by a classic “dragon lady”, someone vicious or nasty enough to turn on a perceived threat and have them tied to a canon or eaten by dogs. Whether the sister actually is or not, we don’t really know.
Is NK known for public show trials? I see more news about people, especially at the top, simply fading from view followed by rumors.
Probably not. They do seem to like executions however.
No. They may not have much choice. Even though they wield considerable power, I doubt there is any absolute power. This is the point of selling stability to them. The most powerful ones will be older, and also have the most to lose.
I tend to agree - early elimination is a good idea, but I suspect this isn’t a trivial option.
So will the army choose which Kim to use as a figurehead upon the promise, “Do what we tell you and we won’t shoot you in the back of the head.”?
Dude is only 40. Lots of extremely obese Americans live well past 40 and without the type of healthcare a dictator might likely receive.
Dennis Rodman?
Wow. That was so long ago I didn’t immediately make the connection.
This is the main point to consider. Many people in the west have the Hollywood view of dictators and mob bosses and such - that they weild absolute power and their world is law and everyone jumps when they are told. The truth is the opposite - it is the classic “riding the tiger”. Palace intrigue is as old as palaces. A dictator must constantly watch that nobody around them becomes too popular, too powerful, that no large coalitions emerge. (“Et tu, Brutus?”) Using terror as a means of control is a double-edged sword. It will dissuade those who might consider usurping, but will also discourage initiative and outstanding performance, and goad those who fear they may have nothing to lose, and solicit revenge. It takes constant vigilance to stay on top.
The nice thing about a dynasty or line of succession is that it settles the simple problem - who’s nominally in charge? It may prevent general A from getting the throne, but it also assures him his main rivals Generals B and C won’t get it either. Simply jockeying for influence tends to be less lethal than outright fighting for the top spot.