Who has the best chance to win the Triple Crown (baseball, not horse racing)

Cafe Society
1

So not necessarily this year, but in general, of the current players which do you think has the best chance for the Triple Crown? (For those who don’t know is the highest batting average, most homeruns and most RBIs in a season.)

Albert Pujols can hit for average and is a solid slugger, but does he really have league leading pop in his bat?

Barry Bonds, as much as I dislike him, is an amazing talent (let’s set aside any steriod speculation for this discussion please – innocent until proven guilty and all that) but unless he gets pitched to, will he see enough good pitches to hit out of the park to lead the league in HRs? And all those walks aren’t driving in the baserunners ahead of him either.

Todd Helton made a run for the triple crown in 2000 when he batted .372 with 147 RBIs and 42 HRs (8 HRs behind Sosa who led the NL that year) and hit 49 homers the following season, but since then hit 30 and 33 homers the follwing 2 seasons.

I think Helton has the best shot if he can get his power stroke back. He plays in a hitter’s park and has been known to hit as well on the road as he does at home.

Any other nominations or suggestions?

2

Any discussion of this for the next couple of years has to begin and end with Bonds. Juiced or not we’re seeing one of the 5 greatest hitters of all time right now. Kind of like when Maddux and Clemens were both on top of their games 10 years ago…you should just be grateful that you’re alive to witness it.

I think Helton has lost something in his swing. He’s not quite the stupendous power hitter (at least for the last two years) that he was before. And that’s playing half his games in Coors. He turns 31 this year so it’s unlikely (but possible) that he’ll regain that form. He’s heading into the outer limits (32+ years of age) that swallow up many hitters.

Pujols is a damn fine candidate. He’s a spectacular hitter who’s only 24 years old and his lifetime average season is .334/39/130 (per 162 games). I mean…DAMN, son. He’s got to be considered one of the top contenders.

Another one is Valdimir Guerrero. Unlike his brother Wilton the baseball Gods smiled on this one. Truly an amazing hitter. Capable of hitting .330 with little plate discipline (though improving). He’s only 28 this year and if he can pull a Sosa (learning plate discipline of the 100+ walks kind) late in his career he could look at a .360/50+/140+ year fairly easily.

And we can NEVER overlook Alex Rodriguez. Say what you will about his contract…he turns 30 this year and has already acheived these career numbers: BA:.308 HR: 345 RBI: 990. He’ll be at borderline HoF numbers by the end of 2005. He’s a decent shot.

So my favorite is Bonds but Pujols is right on him.

3

Bonds hasn’t a shot in hell at a Triple Crown; he’s a great hitter, but he isn’t pitched to enough to lead the league in RBI. There’s fifteen better candidates, at least. Currently he is 26th in the National League in RBI… 28 behind the leader. Some players with more RBI: Lyle Overbay, Phil Nevin, Johnny Estrada, and Sean Casey.

Forget it.

My man would have to be Pujols. Young, lots of power, high averages, a classic Triple Crown threat.

4

That’s what I was going to say. He had what, near 50 homers last season, but under 100 RBI? Now, if the Triple Crown were walks, average and homers, maybe. I think in this case there’s such a thing as being too good, and Bonds is.

5

Johnathon Chance brought up some great names I can’t believe I left out of the OP. A-Rod and Vlad are both solid threats, but as a National League fan, I was thinking of NL players first. I thought of Helton (on the condition he gets his power back) over Pujols, cuz as good as Pujols has been, was his 42 HRs last year a show of him getting better each season or was that his career year? If he continues at this pace, he most certainly would be as big a threat as Vlad for Triple Crown honors.

6

Alex Rodriguez would’ve had a shot if he’d stayed in Texas, where he was a real long-ball threat. But in Yankee Stadium? No, I don’t see him hitting more than 30 homers a year as a Yankee. I know, Death Valley isn’t what it was in Dimaggio’s day, but it still swallows up deep flies from right handed hitters.

7

Well, A-Rod can go for more than 30 a year no matter where he plays, but I don’t think he can put the average with the power for an entire season. As good as he is, would you believe he hasn’t hit .320 since his rookie year?

Bonds is good enough, obviously, but he’s got no chance. Not when he struggles to log 400 at-bats in a season. Maybe, maybe if he had two other very good hitters in the lineup, he could squeak out an RBI title in a down year, but I doubt even that.

Pujols is the obvious favorite, like others have said. His power’s for real, and he’s consistent. He’s pretty much guaranteed to be in the top 10 in each category every year, so the Triple Crown just depends on whether or not other guys have big years in one area. He might end up doing an Oscar Robertson and average a Triple Crown over the next five years, if that makes sense.

Manny Ramirez could do it. The average has always been there, and for my money he’s the best run-producer in baseball. He’s hit 40 bombs three times, so he’s got the power. The obvious caveat is his health- mental and physical. If he plays 150 games, he’s a lock to drive in 115 or more, which gets you in the door. Likewise for a career .317 average. The injuries, the insanity, and the home runs are the things for him- he can get up into the 47-48 HR range no problem, so if that’s enough he could win one.

Carlos Delgado- only on odd-numbered years, apparently. He’s not a real good contact guy but he’s streaky as hell. His numbers- .344/41/137- in 2000 were almost good enough to win a Triple Crown in a soft year. I don’t really think he has a chance, but he’s the type to catch fire, and he’s got the power. A puncher’s chance, at least.

That’s about it, really. There’s not a real long list of guys capable of 45 home runs and a .350 average, and that’s what you have to figure you need to make a run. There are younger guys who you can project to be that good- Miguel Cabrera- but nobody who’s actually done it.

Oh, for the record, Scott Rolen is currently first in the NL in RBI, fourth in average, and tied for sixth in homers (two off the lead). He’s not the type to keep the average up, but what the hell, it’s June and he’s in the vicinity.

8

It has to be a team with a high OBP%.

I think Vlad has the best shot. Or will, when the Angels aren’t all on the DL.

9

Moving this to Cafe Society.

10

Good as Bonds is, I think everybody’s right. He doesn’t get enough at-bats, walks too much, and these days he doesn’t even play as many games - he sits out somewhat regularly to rest. He has a better chance at Aaron’s record than a triple crown.

The Rockies typically struggle on the road because they get used to playing at that altitude. I think that’s a critical handicap.

I think Pujols is the best bet. He’s 24 and if not for Bonds he’d probably have won at least one MVP award so far. He’s just amazing.

Pujols is a damn fine candidate. He’s a spectacular hitter who’s only 24 years old and his lifetime average season is .334/39/130 (per 162 games). I mean…DAMN, son. He’s got to be considered one of the top contenders.

By the way, A-Rod is 28. He’ll turn 30 on 7/27/2005.

11

Cafe Society? This is a poll about sports, isn’t it? You do realize we are talking about baseball, right?

Anyway, much as I would love to see Albert do it, unless the new St. Louis ballpark is a home run hitter’s park, he’ll have a tough time getting enough homers with great hitters in other parks that are more conducive to sluggers. Yes, I know McGuire set a record here, but that guy was a freak. Albert is a disciplined hitter for average and I think in a typical year he will hit 30 to 40 homers, .310 to .340 avg. and around 120 RBI’s. Great stats, but putting it all together in one year is the trick and I think someone else will always be there to top in at least one of those categories.

So, my pick? I gotta go with Vlad.

12

He’s on pace to hit 38.

Yankee Stadium’s tough on righthanded hitters but it certainly isn’t going to cut 30 to 40 percent off your home run total. He does play half his games on the road.

Cards: MCGWIRE!!! MCGWIRE!!! You’re named after the man’s team!!

13

I like the suggestion one of the Giants sportscasters made yesterday. If you walk a guy with 0 strikes, he should get awarded second base.

Of course, in that case, you’ll have to award second base to guys who get hit by a pitch with 0 strikes too, to prevent all those “accidental” HBPs pitchers would inflict to avoid walking someone to 2nd.

Another variant I like is this:

If the batter gets 4 balls and 0 strikes, instead of being awarded 1st base immediately, he gets to take one more pitch. If the pitch is a strike (or gets hit foul), the batter is awarded 1st base. If the pitch is a ball, the batter is awarded 2nd base. If the batter hits the ball into play, it’s played normally.

14

:smack: I didn’t double my U.

I gotta stop drinking in the morning.

15

Scott Rolen in St. Louis would be a decent longshot bet. He is near the top of the NL in all three categories, hitting behind Pujols gives him RBI opportunities and the chance to see a few more strike pitches. Granted, he is playing over his head so far this season, I doubt he will maintain ~.350 through October.

16

Here’s the problem with that: it’s a bad idea, removes strategy from the game, and favors hitters (which is to say Barry Bonds) to a crazy degree. Walks kill pitchers anyway.