For this purpose I am only including the inner circle and excluding anybody requiring vetting or confirmation.
As a corollary to that, how long before someone writes a book giving the behind-the-scenes details of the campaign and the Trump White House? And who will be the one to write it?
An insider on twitter (who knows if they were verified) said Reince Priebus was thinking of jumping ship, but Paul Ryan talked him into staying.
Personally, I’m voting for Conway. Rumor has it that she’s been assigned an office on another floor and I can’t see her sticking around just to be a mouthpiece if she isn’t going to have influence. She’s got too much good press after running the campaign and she should be in demand in 2018.
Not Bannon. Why would he? He’s effectively president.
Not Spicer. If he hasn’t jumped yet he’s not going to.
Not Kushner. He’s not taking any flak.
Priebus jumps if Trump’s popularity tanks so hard they need to get rid of him, but that’s at least a year off.
Melania? Maybe but I think unlikely.
Conway? Maybe. She maybe was hoping she was going to be Press Secretary. At this point she seems like a minor figure. Maybe the glory of being a Trump toadie will wear off. Let’s not forget she was very much against Trump a year ago. She’s not a true believer.
So that leaves Flynn. I’m not a huge fan of his but I do think he cares more about the military than Trump. If Trump tries to use the military in a way which will bring disgrace to it, I think Flynn will push back. If he pushes back he gets canned, which means he could maybe just walk away.
Spicer.
No WH spokesman had a tougher job.
Not a true believer, but clearly an expert opportunist with her eyes on *her *prize. If Trumpism succeeds at Hungary-ifying the US, she’ll be well-positioned to profit yuugely. If not, not. Her leaving depends on how far Trump gets out of the gate before the wheels fall off (or are torn off) Trumpism.
I basically just flipped a coin but I suspect the first will be fired rather than jump ship. I have a feeling President Trump will wig-out on someone and can them and then most of the rest will read the writing on the wall and bail.
Spicer. He does an awful job during his press conferences and Trump was mad at him for wearing a grey suit during the infamous Saturday after the inauguration.
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I guess this is outside of the bounds of the question, but I bet that Ben Carson just stops showing up at some point. Not for any particular reason, just people will not know where to find him.
Good thing it wasn’t tan.
What’s with the fetish for dark suits?
I doubt it will be Carson. He’s running HUD which won’t be a sexy agency that gets a lot of publicity, and he isn’t very deep in the orbit of Trump World.
My money is that Reince Preibus will be the first one to crack. He already has a dead look in his eyes like he really doesn’t want to be there. He looks miserable in the pictures I’ve seen. I’m not sure what Kellyanne’s roll is and why she didn’t take press secretary since I would have thought that Trump would have given it to her.
I assumed that Reince Preibus took the job at the request of the establishment GOP, to manage the Trump presidency and follow Republican orthodoxy. Because I get the impression that Trump will say whatever the last person he talked to told him and would be just as happy to spout DNC talking points.
This article claims that Jared Kushner is being kept out of the loop.
Conway is basically a political mercenary. If she gets a good offer to help someone win an election, she’ll go. Campaign management is her job.
Of course she could leave, help with another campaign, and come back, but that’s still jumping ship at least for a time, so it counts.
This.
Does Mattis count? He may leave in disgust before too awfully long.
I think Conway is the only one who would choose to leave–she may get a good offer elsewhere. The rest of them–including Preibus, Kushner, et al–are going to ride the Trump gravy train as long as possible.
However, I think Spicer may get fired. He doesn’t come across as confident and in control when he addresses the press, and I think Trump might replace him. Possibly with Conway.
- I shudder to think what kind of mendacious monster would hire Conway.
- The “another floor” bit is troubling for her future, given Trump’s fear of stairs. https://www.google.com/amp/jezebel.com/donald-trump-can-absolutely-walk-up-and-down-stairs-lik-1791749860/amp
(I know, the stairs story is too good to be true.)
PS: Priebus gets my vote. Serious background in party politics, and Trump’s hurting the GOP right now, as I see it.
I feel like Melania has kinda-sorta already bailed by choosing to remain in NY.
Regarding Priebus quitting, where would he go? Run for office? Snrx! Join the wing-nut welfare circuit and have a permanent talking head job on Fox? He’s sorta damaged goods. The mainstream party wouldn’t want him now that he’s got Trump cooties. The Trumpenreich wouldn’t have a role for him if he quit. So, he’s kinda stuck.
I think we will see Spicer have a stroke on camera, and that will be that.