It’s called the Electoral College. :rolleyes:
Her point, if I may be so bold, is that CA and NY will go to Obama either way. If you want to know who can beat McCain in swing states, one point of evidence is Obama’s success in red states.
But your question is an interesting one. It may be that FL, OH, PA, etc. won’t go the same way as red states. Unfortunately, Obama has not yet campaigned in any of those states, so all the polls would show right now is the same thing they show in every state before Obama campaigns there. They would still be interesting to look at, if they have been conducted.
NY/CA will go to the *Democrat * either way. The question was about which candidate is stronger vs. McCain (in the polls, or in reasonable breakdowns of voting patterns where they exist) in states that are actually contestable. That’s the only way to get a handle on electability, NOT by popular-vote national totals.
It’s worth noting that McCain’s primary wins are concentrated in states he’s unlikely to carry in the fall. The GOP core states haven’t shown much evidence of warming to him, at least not at this point. That can change, but the talk-show yammerers may make that very difficult for him.
I’m not sure where you’re disagreeing with me (if you are).
I’m not, since neither of us has much decent data to work with yet. We’re just comparing notes.
I’ve spoken to a lot of people who feel the same way I do.
I’d pick Obama over McCain in a heartbeat.
I’d pick McCain over Hillary in a heartbeat.
I’d pick my neighbor’s goat over Huckabee.
None of them match my positions on key issues all the way across the board, but Obama comes closest.
Well, it’s weird. I’m not used to it. 
I think your methodology is correct. What really matters is who can beat McCain in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, and maybe Virginia, Colorado, and a few other states.
That methodology assumes a more or less typical electoral map, which Obama might dispute, but it also clearly makes a stronger argument for Hillary than the national polls would suggest (given her strength in among older and working-class voters).
Yeah, what’s this shit about posting in Great Debates when you’re not debating, huh?
I might add more states to your list of contestables based on expected turnout (heavier than historic averages for the Dem, either way, and lighter for McCain), but yes, those are the key ones. More likely, OH, FL, and PA will be the Big 3 once again - and if either candidate sweeps them, they’ll sweep most of the other contestables too.
One might think those polls would have been taken lately, but they don’t yield to quick Googling.
Up to now this year, living in Florida has been politically boring. Our Dem delegation having been revoked, the Dems did not do any primary campaigning at all. But I have a feeling there’s a lot of campaigning to come here. Especially if they decide to have a do-over state primary or caucus, an idea the DNC has been pushing on the state party.
The question of who will can beat McCain is important because the next President is likely to nimonate at least one justice of SCOTUS. I think either will beat McCain.
The question of who will beat him by the biggest margin is important because the name at the top of the ticket will affect the chances of the people lower down on the ticket.
There are a dozen or so gubernatorial elections this year and a few of them are in play and one of them look like they might flip from Republican to Democrat while a couple of them might flip the other way.
There are 35 Senate seats being decided by this election, 23 of them are being held by Republicans and about 7 of them will not have an incumbent (lots of retiring Republican senators this year and I do not believe any of the Democratic seats are competitive). Democrats only have a one vote advantage in the senate and that vote belongs to Lieberman.
Every seat in congress is up for grabs and the Democrats have a small lead due to the election of Democrats in some fairly red districts (these guys are almost all pledging to support Obama). Having their names listed under Hillary Clinton is a good way to lose their seat.
The sense is that the sentiment against Hillary Clinton is a good way to halt the trend towards more Democrats in congress.