I’m guessing that Ghadafi will win, and the rebels will be pushed out. Who will get the (lucrative) contracts to repair the war damage?
I’m guessing that the USA, UK, France won’t be getting any business-will the Chinese reap the rewards?
I’m betting the exact opposite - that Gaddaffi will lose and that a lot of contracts will go to France, the US and the UK and possibly Italy.
NATO doesn’t seem to be trying very hard. I’m guessing that eventually Qadaffi will win, and China and Russia will get all the megabucks contracts.
I’m just poking my head in to be able to spell Gaddafi a fourth way.
I can could China coming out on top either way because we really pissed them off with this one.
How is he going to win? The NATO air strikes are obliterating his tanks, artillery and APCs along with his radar and anti-aircraft sites and even his telephone and mobile communications systems. Meanwhile the rebels are getting expert training and are getting armed with heavier weaponry so that they can become a more efficient fighting force. Granted, NATO have messed up royally a few times with their friendly-fire incidents, but every tank Gaddaffi loses is one he can’t replace.
Seriously, after the support that the US, UK, France and NATO have already pledged to the rebels, there is simply no way they’re going to let Gaddaffi win. It would be an utter embarrassment that they can’t afford and won’t allow.
China would only benefit if Gaddaffi wins, and that ain’t happening. When the rebels win, they won’t forget that China abstained from the crucial UN vote and declined to help them in their hour of need, so they won’t be particularly inclined to send any lucrative contracts their way.
And yet, despite all of that, the rebels can’t seem to make any headway at all. There’s basically a stalemate right now, and every rebel attempt to advance in the last several weeks has been beaten back, seeming pretty easily, by Qadaffi’s troops.
It’s a stalemate right now, and the revolutionaries can’t make headway because despite their unquestionable motivation, they don’t have the training or heavy weaponry to take on Gaddaffi’s artillery and heavy armour. But they’re getting better trained, better organised, better armed and better funded. Plus Gaddaffi’s assets are frozen - he’s not selling any oil, and he can’t replace any of the resources he’s losing. It may be taking longer than anyone expected, but he’s on the out.
Pardon an obvious question, but what reconstruction contracts? Reconstruction contracts are what happen when a foreign power comes in and occupies a country. If there’s an actual Libyan government in place when this all ends, it will look like any other third world country post-civil war: some foreign aid, some foreign investment, not much else. If you mean just for the oil, one imagines the oil will flow to Europe regardless of who repairs the current facilities, so it’s a bit of a moot point.
Once Gaddaffi’s gone and the new Libyan Government is in place, the country’s going to need a hell of a lot of repair, construction and development. I’d assumed that foreign construction companies, architects and the like would be involved in that, and paid for by funds from the sale of the newly-liberated (and properly managed) oil wealth.
Ah, I see. They would —but it’s not going to be lucrative enough for countries to get especially worked up about. Back before the fighting started, GDP per capita was at $13,800, high for a developing country but very middling overall. The country doesn’t need that much more infrastructure to get out its sole major export —oil — and since it’s mostly in the desert, it won’t get damaged all that much by the fighting. Before the conflict, Libya’s FDI was pretty normal for its GDP (ranked 70th, as compared to 74th for GDP). Obviously, there will be some opportunities to invest and money to be made, but can anybody explain to me why we think there will be tons of money being shovelled out to foreigners?