Quick, before the 2012 election is over, let’s get in some embarrassing predictions for who will be the candidates for 2016 and who will win, and why.
I think Obama stands a slight edge for winning in 2012. I think his likely replacement among the Dems will be Hillary. I also think she will lose, not because of anything she does or says, but because Obama will compromise on Social Security and Medicare and that this will make him and the Democrats TREMENDOUSLY unpopular with their base. Look for a bloodbath for the Dems in 2016 if Obama wins in 2012.
I think the Pubs will figure that by 2016 the Dubya-stink will have worn off the Bush name, and they’ll nominate Jeb Bush, who will be our next President, God help us all. Mario Rubio might also be a likely contender.
My best case scenario: a strong progressive movement created by Obama’s betrayal of the middle class sweeps a Green Party candidate into major third party contender, forcing the Dems to move back to center from the right wing positions the Pubbies have pulled them to by going fucking nutbag far right. Whether elected or not, the progressive wing of the Dems gets some traction in 2012.
But in anycase, it will be an interesting cycle. In the past couple decades, there has usually been at least one “nominee-apparent”. Either an incumbent, someone who did well but didn’t win the last primary (Romney, McCain, Dole, Reagan) and/or a sitting VP who will run (Bush I, Gore). Not that they’re guaranteed to win the nomination, but they usually are going to be an obvious contender even four years out.
In 2016, the VP is almost certain to retire and the GOP primary battle didn’t really leave any obvious “runner-ups”: Its pretty hard to picture Santorum or Newt doing any better in '16.
Hillary will run and win the Democratic nomination. She isn’t going to spend the rest of her life wondering what would have been had she run- she’s got to do it.
Mitch Daniels will run and win the Republican nomination. He sat out this season, thinking that it wasn’t the right time and knowing the Romney Death Star would destroy him if he did. Christie may give it a shot, but he’s too much of a dick to warm voters over. Santorum will likely give it a shot, but gets no closer than this time. Even someone like Rand Paul might dip his toe in the water, his ego is certainly big enough. Of course, should his father keep up his quest for Harold Stassen’s record, he may pass. Jeb will give it some thought but wuss out. Bachmann will flirt with the idea but pass, ruining her husband’s dreams about that perfect inaugural gown.
2016 will be almost 4 years after the Earth ends in the Mayan Apocalypse. I think this will be just the break that the McCain/Palin campaign has been looking for!
I wonder if Hillary would run as a 1-term President, and announce this before the primaries? I can’t see her running again as she approaches her mid-70’s…
Eh, I don’t think Hillary will run. But she’ll only be 68 in '16, just three years older then Romney is now, younger then McCain or Reagan where during their first run, and none of them felt the need to say they would only serve a single term. So assuming she’s still in good health, I don’t think her age will be what holds her back.
Plus, if your a Dem primary voter, its kind of dumb to vote for someone who says they’ll only serve a single term. The incumbency advantage is pretty huge, which party would want to nominate someone who promises they will throw that advantage away?
As I literally just posted in the Romney 2016 thread:
Ryan can make a claim to it, but I don’t think it’ll go to him. I think his best move is to find a way to wrest control of the House from under Boehner, who’s barely keeping it together as it is.
Santorum will try, and he’ll get a surprising amount of support. But what he won’t get is money and his campaign will fizzle in the home stretch in the same as it did this year.
Rubio will try as well. Probably just because he’s pissed about being snubbed as the VP this year. Part of me wonders how that will play out, when certain members of the Republican party spent 8 years fighting a foreign Kenyan Muslim and now they’ve got to support a Hispanic? But he’s too new to the national scene and doesn’t have a huge following yet to sweep him through the primaries. Not impossible, but I don’t see it.
Frankly, with the approval rating of Congress, getting any Rep or Sen into the office of the Presidency is going to take some doing in 2016. For my money, it’s going to come from a Governor. Rick Scott, Jan Brewer, Bobby Jindal, and Bob McDonnell are out. Chris Christie is a strong possibility though. Maybe Tom Corbett. Hell, maybe Nikki Haley but even that’s a longshot. But I’m going to say right now that 2016’s Republican nominee will be a current or former Governor.
It’s interesting to speculate on what Hilary might do. I’ve heard speculation that she would resign as SoS shortly into the next term; I wonder if she would run for the Senate again, and use that as a base for a push towards the presidency. The trouble is, no NY Senate seats are up until 2016. Could she run from another state? Or maybe she could just run without an office, she has enough name familiarity for that.
What follows is kind of silly but if she is going to run for President she is going to have to decide what to do with her hair - find a good style and stick with it. Nothing is going to make her attractive, but every time I see her, she has a different style that was worse than the last one, and for some reason it draws my attention, in a very negative way.
Madeleine Albright is a dumpy old lady (but with a very appealing personality) but she was obviously comfortable with who she was and one thing I don’t remember is her hair. Hilary needs to stop trying to be attractive and settle into her age.
Heck, if she were 10 years younger, I wish Albright would run for the Democrats; she would at last be one Democrat I could vote for with no reservations.
As for Republicans, the apparent gestation time of right-wing loonies is about 37 minutes, so there’s no knowing what new crop of hellions it will be our pleasure to witness in four years. Christie will be out of the running, due to being bigger than Philadelphia (yes, that’s a fat joke). All of this year’s players will be has-beens by then, fatally exposed to too much public scrutiny in this year’s race. Romney will, I hope, retire and sit on his great, whitewashed hacienda, so I never have to hear his burbling non sequiturs again.
Roddy
I like Andrew Cuomo in '16, just for passing marriage equity in NY. I don’t follow NY politics much, but that made headlines. Anyway, Andy can claim to have reached across the aisle and worked with Rs as well as Ds to get this major piece of civil rights legislation passed. I say “claim” because NY Republicans are amenable to reason, particularly on an issue that’s popular with a majority of their constituents. A President Cuomo would quickly discover that Congressional Republicans are not amenable to reason. But that’s after the election. Cuomo in '16!