“Also noteworthy are the four Florida and four Ohio polls today although neither of those states changed hands. Of the four Florida polls, two of them (ARG and Survey USA) give Kerry leads of 3% and 2%, respectively, one of them (Rasmussen) is a tie at 48% apiece, and one of them (Zogby) shows Bush ahead by 4%. I find it ironic that all summer long I was bombarded with e-mail from Republicans denouncing John Zogby as an unreliable Democrat, but that now that he is the only one showing Bush ahead in the key swing states, the e-mail has abruptly ceased. But Zogby’s poll is the most recent, so it is the one I am using. Nevertheless, trouble is clearly brewing for Bush in Florida.”
I enjoy following the polls, but i don’t give them any weight after the 2000 election debacle when so many of them turned out to be wrong – not just for the Presidential race, but for a lot of House and Senate races too. If the pollsters were honest, their margin of error would have to be 10 or 5 percent.
Take the polls with liberal doses of salt. I think the interest in this election is so intense that the pollsters really don’t have a good grasp on the demographics of the “likely voters” so turnout is everything.
The polls may be very badly off the mark this year.
Georgia provides a good example. Today’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that a **72% turnout ** among registered voters is expected this year. **72%!! ** That’s astonishing in Georgia, which usually has very low turnout. Over the past few decades, the range has been 30% to 47%.
I seriously doubt that any of the polls are taking into account the unprecedented surge in new voters this year.
We all know there was a lot of Pubbie skullduggery in 2000, but do we really know that ALL the Pubbie skullduggery that went on then was caught? A lot of stuff could have gone on in states other than Florida that didn’t set of any alarms in 2000, because people didn’t know what a cheatin’ bunch the Pubbie leadership is, and so they didn’t keep such a close eye on them – certainly, there was nothing like the scrutiny we’re seeing in THIS election. There could have been MASSIVE numbers of votes that were stolen nationwide in 2000.
With such tight scrutiny, it will undoubtedly be harder for the Pubbies to pull off the kind of mass election-stealing that may have occurred undetected in 2000. (Though of course, they’re trying with their voter intimidation tactics, and Democratic registration-destroying tactics.) So the net effect of the increased scrutiny will be to hurt the Pubbie numbers, as they won’t benefit from the same shenanigans they benefited from in 2000. Which dramatically improves Kerry’s chances.
It’s just speculation of course, but something to think about …
yeah, be nice of Denise Majette can give Johnny Isakson a surprise, though Isakson’s actually one of the more moderate, intelligent Repubs, so even if he wins, it’s not like we’ll have another crazed Zell Miller type to contend with. Doubt if anything can get Georgia in the Kerry column, but we’ll see one way or the other, real soon now.
Last night on the Daily Show, Zogby himself (the man who runs the Zogby poll) predicted a Kerry win based on the undecideds going Kerry’s way (apparently, undecided usually go for the challenger).
Zogby has Bush ahead in Michigan and Ohio. However, the undecides if they vote mostly for Kerry could turn that around. But its looking bleak for Kerry now.
The new Newsweek poll has Bush up nationwide 6 points among likely voters, and four points among registered voters. The margin of error of the poll is ±4, putting the first result outside the margin of error (the article about the poll gets this wrong).
The Iowa Electronic market shows a sharp spike upwards for Bush immediately after the Bin Laden tape aired. I think the polls tomorrow and Monday are going to show increasing gains for Bush.
If I were betting on this today, I’d bet about 60-40 that Bush wins.
Of possible interest is this flash from the past: Wolf Blitzer on CNN just before the Big Ooops of 2000…
Disclaimer: from the Daily Kos site, admittedly a member of the Reality Based Community, with no link provided save a reference to Nexis. He could be fibbing, but I doubt it.
Was that Blitzer comment in 2000 before or after the ‘late hit’ about Bush’s DUI? Most analysts I’ve read attribute the DUI hit to erasing Bush’s 5 point margin.
Everybody is making predictions, so here is mine. Kerry 272, Bush 266.
Kerry takes Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, DC, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. Unless I am mistaken, that’s 279 E.V.'s. He’s leading in Iowa but Bush will just barely nose him out on Nov. 2.
Bush takes everything else. He will actually deserve to lose Florida but will get the electoral votes via cheating.
Over to Talking Points Memo, Mr. Marshall, the wonk’s wonk, is on the case, poll wise. He has the individual links available at http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
but I wont bother to repeat them here, you can follow them from above, but boiled down its:
Concord Monitor Poll, released today, shows Kerry over Bush 49% to 46% in New Hampshire.
Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, just released, shows Kerry 48%, Bush 45%.
Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, just released, shows Kerry 49%, Bush 41%.
I feel bestirring within a most unaccountable sensation, as through a glass brightly. I wonder if that’s the “hope” thingy I’ve heard so much about?
