On Hawaii - it appears that a problem there is that Hawaii hasn’t been polled in quite awhile. Until these last two polls that is – and I’m sure after these results more will follow.
There are only four polls shown and the first two were done on August 3rd and September 11th respectively. The last two are very recent, October 18th and 20th and show – first, the tie in Hawaii and then the 1 point lead for Bush. If this is valid, I wonder what’s going on to have caused such a huge swing in such a short time.
Link showing the polling organizations, the results, and the dates –
I have significant doubts about that latest poll in Florida giving Bush a significant boost. Makes little sense unless recently Kerry said something to piss of a lot of Floridians.
The Hawai’i results are surprising, but note also that, as per the Honolulu Advertiser article, a whopping 12% of Hawai’ians are still undecided. And by the undecideds-favor-the-challenger-2:1-rule, that means Kerry will still win the state handily.
I still wonder what could be going on that a state Gore won by 19% and Clinton by more than 20% is so close. Did Kerry do something to annoy Hawaii? Are Hawaiians convinced they’re the next al Qaeda target?
“In contrast to previous Mondays, there are many new polls today, with 19 states getting new numbers (although most didn’t change sides). In addition to the ususual polls, Zogby has begun daily tracking polls in 10 battleground states, which I will also toss into the hopper. According to Zogby’s polls, conducted Oct. 21-24, Bush is currently leading in six states (FL, NM, NV, WI, IA, and OH), while Kerry is leading in four states (CO, MN, PA, MI). Some of these results are very surprising. Is Kerry really leading by 4% in Colorado? Is Bush really leading by 5% in New Mexico? I don’t believe either of those. They are in conflict with too many other polls. Another example: the current Ohio University poll gives Kerry a 6% lead in that state, whereas Zogby puts Bush ahead by 5%. The MoE on these polls is 4%, so an 11% change in a couple of days in a state with so few undecideds is impossible. I think there are serious problems with the all the polls.”
While it’s true that 12% are still “undecideds” — I wonder where those “undecideds” will go. Remember, historical trends don’t “mean” that Kerry “will” win Hawaii. Since, as I understand, the 2:1 idea is historical trend and not a “rule” of nature. But most importantly, note that 32% of the Democrats in Hawaii say they will vote for Bush. Makes me wonder IF this ‘undecided’ tread will apply in Hawaii.
Second - IF the two recent polls, on October 18 and 20, conflicted with polls during a similar timeframe, I would be more ready to just call these two polls aberrations. They don’t.
Does anyone know if there’s a site out there comparing the polls taken during the runup to the 2000 election with the actual election results? Seems to me that that historical perspective would be interesting, if only to put the current poll oddities in some perspective.
This in incompatible given the margin of error with Bush now being up by 1%. Either the polls are flaky, or Kerry has somehow rather recently pissed of a lot of Hawaiians. Given the historical dominance of the Dems in Hawaii, I doubt these recent polls. Sheesh. Hawaii going for Bush seems about as likely as Kerry winning Alaska.
It gives you the last poll as of that date — the one from September 11th. See my posts above ---- there are two more recent polls. Polls from October 18th and October 20th, with the last one showing a 1 point lead for Bush. That’s the entire point being made. There are only four polls and the first two are old, from August and September. The last two, showing the tie and the Bush 1 ppoint lead over Kerry, are very recent.
rfgdxm posted at link to the map as it was on October 20 — not the current map. Here’s a repost to the current electoral map with the most recent state polls added –