“The outcome of my hypothetical is worse than yours, therefore my hypothetical is more important”?
Really?
I think the things that can be done to improve his odds of winning are to motivate more Biden supporters to vote – and especially those that haven’t voted consistently in the recent past. I don’t merely mean a greater number of Democratic-leaning people. I mean people that would definitely vote Biden if only they could be moved to mail in a ballot or get themselves to a ballot box.
I don’t think there’s much mind-changing possible at this point. I think the “undecided voter in the middle” – specifically for the 2024 election – is kind of a myth. I’m sure there are some out there, but the number has to be proportionally very small.
I think the Biden campaign has a strategy, and are pursuing that strategy to the best of their ability. I don’t expect them to share that strategy in detail in the middle of the campaign, so if they’re making errors in following that strategy, or if that strategy was flawed to begin with, I don’t think that will be diagnosable until after the campaign ends, and the post mortems begin.
It’s possible that, after the dust settles, it will come out that Biden’s campaign was doing something exceptionally stupid or ill-conceived. It’s also possible that it will come out that Biden did everything he possibly could to win, but Trump’s campaign was simply insurmountable. But most likely, if Biden loses, it won’t be because of obvious mistakes, but decisions made based on the best information available at the time, that turned out to be incorrect only in retrospect.
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Yeah, Biden should go to Detroit and talk about the problems Black folks face! I’m sure that won’t be spun by the MAGATs into ‘See Biden only cares about them and really he hates White people, VOTE TRUMP!!!’
A “Biden supporter that doesn’t consistently vote” doesn’t have to be externally defined. It’s defined exactly as I wrote it:
People that would definitely vote Biden if only they could be moved to mail in a ballot or get themselves to a ballot box.
A lot of people don’t vote regularly but have definite political opinions. I’d even go so far to say that some really care about politics, and yet still don’t vote regularly. Seems oxymoronic, but no.
Additionally, it need not be people who just love Joe Biden. It can also be people motivated to keep Trump out of office … so now they’ll make the effort to cast a vote. That might not be an immense number of people, but I’d bet it’s a non-trivial number.
SyncoSmalls:
I suggest we come up with a new category for voters who in the 3rd party/no-vote camp. These are not garden variety undecided voters and they don’t identify as Biden supporters or Trump supporters. Many will vote for downstream Dem candidates but are having a difficult time with Biden in particular.Are you saying these folks are beyond reach?
I think people who don’t see themselves voting for Biden right now are, very generally, out of reach to overt Biden-campaign efforts to change their minds. I do think some portion will come around and end up voting Biden even without Biden specifically courting them (whatever that may mean at the individual level).
If Biden wins, will Trump be to blame?
I’ve said before that if Biden loses, liberals and progressives should be too busy to play a blame game.
But if that won’t fly, blame Biden rather than the voters. Blame Biden, and what’s needed in 2028 is a younger candidate. Blame voters, and it’s hopeless.
Do I think Biden should have dropped out last summer? Yes. Was it reasonable for Biden to ignore me? Yes again.
Certainly.
He couldn’t beat an octogenarian with 40 percent job approval?
Also to blame will be GOP primary voters who had (from a Republican standpoint) better primary choices they ignored.
That’s overly excited.
When the definitive history of the world is written about this period, methinks the date of the first debate in the 2024 Election won’t get a mention, unless something dire occurs during the debate.
It’s breaking convention, not historic.
I would agree with this. There are always going to be things that could have been done better and with 20/20 hindsight these may be more clear, but Biden has got a team of people who know politics, polling, campaigning, and social psychology better than anyone here, so I’m not going to try to second guess them.
What I’m seeing here is remenicient to me of sports fans who believe they know better how to win a football game than their team’s coach.
I’m just intrigued by the framing of the election as something where blame is assigned for losing rather than credit for winning. An interesting bit of spin.
Strangely, and I’m really trying to remain good faith and honest with you, here, I just have no idea how you can see that video and say that it’s ‘Pragmatic’ and 'Reasonable".
Fallon: “What do you say to voters who are upset that those are the two choices?”
Hillary: “Get over yourself. Those are the two choices,”
If Fallon had, perhaps, specified something more drastic than people who are merely “upset”, maybe I’d be more sympathetic to your point of view. Perhaps I’m seeing it skewed or missing something, perhaps you have incite or perspective that’s not currently available to me
I mean, I looked it up in a well-researched book about how to increase one’s electability while running for President in United States in the modern era, and in Chapter 3, one paragraph down, it states;
"Do NOT tell potential voters to “Get over themselves”.
Just goof’n. Sorry. It’s just that, I believe, it gives people the ick.
Now, if she were caught saying it in private, I actually might’ve been a little less annoyed, to whatever degree, but it’d make much more sense. Thing is; I’m, (I’m sure others, as well), are desperately trying to pimp The Democrats to people in our lives more than ever.
Whether you think it’s “apathy” or “skepticism” or “emotions” or "Selfishly Yearning For What They’d Consider To Be ‘Perfection’, is clouding voter’s judgment, or not, is it at all helpful to speak to them in that way? It’s my own anecdotal experience that people seem to be feeling like they have to be more and more “resilient” to our institutions and their rules, even at their own determent. That’s not all of them, of course. This shit makes it so difficult for me, a person not necessarily equip for such conversations/debates in real time, to sell them on The Dems.
She act’s so entitled, as if she and/or Biden haven’t objectively made some, or been a part of some, major flops in the past. I’m sure you’re aware of what are considered to be, 'The Greatest Hits" .
To Hillary, “Get over yourself”.
Sorry. Didn’t mean to end it like that, but I need sleep. Thanks!
Umm, Biden already beat the charismatic demagogue so how exactly is it foolish to think he could do it again?
True if it happened, but it is very unlikely that that both parties will fail to continue winning about half the time.
The real reason that playing the blame game makes sense, if Trump loses, is that DJT is abnormally crooked. In retrospect, the lesson for the GOP – and I think they would learn it – would be to never again nominate someone under multiple felony indictments. The lesson for the Democrats, which they would also learn, would merely be to not nominate someone quite that old.
I mean. Hillary is 100% correct, though. Voters who aren’t satisfied with Biden can stamp their petulant little feet all day long; it won’t change the fact that the two options are Biden and Trump.
So, they need to get over themselves; or they are effectively voting for Trump.
If that’s what they want to do, then fine, let them vote for Trump out of a butthurt disdain for Biden. But they should know that this is what they are doing; there’s no reason to mince words or gussy it up.
The “Dems” don’t run anyone. The candidates have been self selected for, something like, fifty fucking years.
So the voters are being petulant if they’re not satisfied?
This framing is not going to help you, whether you think it’s justified or not. Let’s grant to you that sh is right? Why talk that way? It’s like, technically, a person’s husband might be not traditionally handsome, or “ugly”, but you certainly NEVER bluntly say that.
Trust me, whatever you may hear, certain people will not take it in such a charitable way. They hear; “Fall in line, peasants.”
No.
You don’t have to be satisfied; what the fuck does that have to do with anything?
If, on election day, a voter fails to vote for Biden over minor disagreements and therefore supports a different candidate with whom he disagrees on almost everything - that voter is being petulant.
Part of being an adult is making choices that don’t fully “satisfy” you, because they are better than the alternative.
Part of being a petulant child is throwing a tantrum over small problems with the better of two options, and ending up much worse off because of it.
And if they’re so offended by that that they get Trump elected, they are petulant children who have brought whatever suffering Trump causes onto themselves.