Exit polling in Iowa and South Carolina found that Republicans who decided within the last few days tended to go for Rubio. I’d like to get opinions as to why you think this may be the case. Here are some of my guesses.
The media is pushing a narrative favoring Rubio over the other Republicans, especially Trump and Cruz. People less engaged in the process might not really think about their decision until a few days before the election. They then see media coverage favorable to Rubio and shift his way.
Late deciders in the Republican race this year may be people who in the past supported the mainstream candidate, i.e. a typical McCain or Romney voter. They didn’t see anyone to their liking, with Bush hobbled by his name and being low energy. They finally held their noses and voted for Rubio because they don’t want Trump or Cruz to win the nomination.
There’s also the ‘least bad’ factor. You’re either with Trump or against him, same as Cruz. Carson has his own niche. Thus you’re debating between Bush/Kasich/Rubio. Bush never caught fire in Iowa or South Carolina and Kasich had written off both states.
I like Rubio and already voted for him in the Texas primary. But he wasn’t many people’s first choice. He’s the last viable choice for Republicans who can’t stand the thought of Trump or Cruz winning.
I think it’s easy to understand why Trump didn’t get the late deciders. His supporters are caught up in strong, mostly irrational, emotions. There weren’t a lot of studious Republicans carefully deliberating whether to stay calm or to vote for the berserker.
Similar comments may apply to supporters of the fanatic Cruz.
And didn’t Bush concede before voting closed? At least some of Rubio’s late-deciders would be people who originally planned to vote for Bush, and shifted to their second choice when he dropped out.