Whoops! Sorry, you’re dead, and they won’t find your daughter’s cum-and-blood-stained corpse for another week! The person who burst in through your window at 5:30 AM was not, in fact, a law-abiding member of the local police force (despite his shouts of, “POLICE! DON’T RESIST!”), but was instead a child-raping serial killer! Better luck next time.
(Alternatively: Whoops! Sorry, you’re dead! The person who burst in through your window at 5:30 AM were the police, but they saw you holding a gun and hesitating, and the rookie shot you 11 times before his superior officer could finish saying, “POLICE! ON THE FLOOR!”. Oh, and someone flashbanged your infant for good measure, and no, they’re not going to pay the medical bills.)
And I’m not going to rehash the fact that it is virtually impossible to convict a cop of nearly any crime. It’s hard to even fire bad cops. We couldn’t even get a murder conviction on Michael Slager, despite video evidence that he pulled his gun, aimed, and shot a fleeing civilian in the back. Expecting the court to punish the police is a fool’s errand. Expecting the court to be willing to restitute the damage the police did to you is not always a fool’s errand, but it’s often the case - the cops aren’t willing to foot the medical bills for the infant they maimed with a flashbang.
At 5:30 AM. In the dark (technically: “astronomical twilight”). With potentially seconds to spare before the person breaking into your home kills or incapacitates you. With absolutely no reason to believe that the police would raid your home.
Remember that last bit - it’s not like Marvin Guy was a crackhead who could expect the cops to come down on him. They didn’t find any drugs on the property. There was no evidence that he was dealing drugs, and only circumstantial evidence that he had, at some point, used marijuana. This was not a person expecting a no-knock, break-in-through-the-windows police raid. Like most people in the country, Guy was not expecting a raid from the police.
But it gets worse.
An estimated 3.7 million household burglaries occurred each
year on average from 2003 to 2007. In about 28% of these
burglaries, a household member was present during the burglary.
In 7% of all household burglaries, a household member
experienced some form of violent victimization (figure 1).
https://www.cato.org/policy-report/novemberdecember-2008/should-no-knock-police-raids-be-rare-or-routine
In July 2006, I wrote the Cato White Paper Overkill: The Rise of Paramilitary Police Raids, a study of 180 botched raids. Since that paper came out, there have been a couple dozen more botched raids. The raids themselves are not rare occurrences. One criminologist says they occur to 40,000 to 50,000 people per year in this country. The vast majority of those are to serve drug warrants, and the vast majority of those are to serve warrants on nonviolent offenders.
So if you notice people people breaking into your house, what are the odds that it’s a no-knock raid?
1/75.
If we want to be generous, and assume the cops only raid when you’re at home, we can say 1/21.
If we want to be really generous, and just ignore all the home invasions that don’t end with violent victimization of someone within the house (i.e. the cases where a violent response is absolutely justified in retrospect), then the number we come up with is… 1/5.25
That is, if you are the subject of something which you cannot immediately distinguish between a home invasion and a no-knock raid, you are more than five times as likely to subject someone in your household to violent victimization if you simply surrender as you advocate.
Of course, this is ignoring that most people will generally know whether or not they’re at risk for a police raid. Guy probably didn’t think that, given that the raid was based on the idea that he was dealing cocaine, and there was no drugs found on the premises (and the paraphenelia didn’t imply cocaine either). So that’s another problem.