Why did Arnold win ?

Great Debates
21

Actually we don’t know that. Presumably some people voted “No” on the recall and “Arnold” for the successor. So some of the Arnold votes include people who prefer Davis, but put down Arnold as a second choice.

It seems to be a valid comparison to me. People who wanted Davis replaced voted “yes” on the recall, and people who thought Davis should remain in office voted “no”. So the number of “No” votes represent people who prefer Davis over all other 135 candidates.

Of course I’m not questioning the fact that Arnold won fair and square according to the rules. It’s just an illustration that the current system may have certain faults.

22

“America is going through a big ‘penis’ phase. Maybe we feel a bit emasculated by 911. I’m not sure. Maybe it’s an anti-PC backlash- groping women certainly shows that you arn’t bothered by PC bullshit like sensitivity. Anyway, we the quality we are looking for right now is “cocksure”, and Arnold’s got plenty of that.”

Our penis phase predates 9-11. Think you’ve got to attribute its commencement to Slick Willy Clinton, whose penis was often on display, and whose groping proclivities were only slightly more frequent.

23

I wonder how close Arnie & Ken Lay are?

24

Actually he got a larger percentage from both the 34-65 and the 65 and over crowds, than from the younger set.

I’m not defending or condemning groping, since it really has a lot to do with the situation. However, the Republicans had a fit about Monica and all that, which again I thought was much ado about nothing important. Then the Democrats come along and get on Arnold’s case. In a direct comparison, I don’t think patting someone’s butt or untying their bikini is quite in the same league as getting a BJ or inserting a cigar. But then that’s just me and I don’t think either was a federal case. :stuck_out_tongue:

25

I wasn’t aware we were in the pit.

Actually, grump is quite correct, considering he/she was speaking (and stated it quite clearly in the portion you quoted) of the recall election. In order for Davis to have stayed governor, greater than 50% of the voters would have had to vote No on the recall. Davis was not included in the list of 135 candidates, so a plurality wouldn’t have cut it for him.

If you really wish to call someone ignorant in Great Debates, you might want to make sure they’re in the wrong first.

26

My take, as an actual California resident & voter, hopefully fairly unbiased thoughts:

  1. Davis was extremely unpopular. In a recent poll something like 70% of people responded that they were dissatisfied with the job he was doing.

  2. Schwarzenegger is a popular, charismatic guy to many people. Big famous movie star, the “cool” factor that was referred to earlier, that sort of thing. He sounds like an “outsider” so he’ll shake things up, etc.

  3. Poor Democratic turnout. Statewide the participation was a little over 60% of eligible voters. Across the Bay from me in very liberal San Francisco, voter turnout was something like 50%. I spoke to several people this morning (coworkers and carpoolers) who said that since they were opposed to the recall they DIDN’T VOTE (pause as my blood pressure returns to normal and words like “ignorant clowns” leave my brain).

  4. Smooth handling of Arnold’s campaign. He got elected in 9 weeks without having to really articulate any positions on any issues. The only debate that he participated in was the one in which everyone got the questions a week ahead of time. Nothing unscripted, never had to discuss details. I don’t personally like this (I’m actually horrified by it) but the fact that he pulled it off helped him - hard for anyone to find something to disagree with!

  5. Lack of charismatic opponents. McClintock is too right-wing for many people in the state, Bustamante had the “guilt by association” with Davis, Camejo & the Green Party strike a lot of people as kind of loony left and Huffington just wasn’t all that likeable.

  6. Structure of the recall itself. If the recall rules were different and you had some kind of “Davis vs. Schwarzenegger” vote, with proper debates, I think things would have worked very differently - not that Davis would necessarily have won. I think that the recall was even more of a short-term popularity contest than the “regular” elections are.

27

Short answer: He spent the most money.

As opposed to the smear tactics perpetuated by the hypocritical idiots on the right? Or maybe you didn’t hear about the smears that were thrown at Davis and Bustamonte during the campaigning?

Uh… yeah. :rolleyes:

28

I think he won because of the Jorgen van Strangle factor:

http://www.fairlyoddparents.net/gallery/details.php?image_id=464

29

I used early results, and those results did not accurately reflect the final results. My bad. According to todays paper, Arnold got 3,744,132 votes, and Davis got 3,562,487 votes. Arnold also got 48.6% of the total votes for Gov. Hardly a mandate, but a good showing. This indicates that Arnie could very likely weather an early recall- of course if he screws up, all bets are off. It also shows that Arnold (I am not going to type “Schwarzenegger” :smiley: and his own campaign material used “Arnold” so…) could have possibly won a general election vs a Dem.

As to that, McClintock polled about a million votes, so if all of them had voted for Arnold the Governator would have had a small landslide. But they wouldn’t have- those votes represent the hardcore GOP right, who would never vote for a Pro-Choice candidate- who is also mostly pro-Gay rights and lukewarm on Gun Control.

John Mace- Well, yes, the “big guns” in the CA GOP did back Arnold- but only AFTER poll results showed clearly that McClintock would lose and Arnie had a very good chance of winning. No one out here thinks Arnold would have won a GOP primary. I don’t think Arnold even thinks so. Of course, winning the next Primary won’t be so hard, being an incumbent. Again, assuming the Governator doesn’t screw up. This does not indicate that CA will vote for Bush- unless somehow Bush become Pro-Choice, Pro-Gay rights, and etc. :dubious:

As to the 50% of the votes thing- both posters are right. In the last GENERAL Election, Davis did not have to win with 50% (in fact, despite a very poor showing by the GOP candidate, I am not sure he did). In this RECALL election, Davis needed 50% +1 vote to stay in.

Basicly in CA, the Dem party includes the center. The Center went over to Arnold, who is a very centrist candidate. The far right hardcore GOP voted for McClintock, and the Left voted for Bustamonte (and others). The Dems could have won if they had posited a Centrist Candidate (one suggestion was Bill Clinton!). But they only sort of vaguely got behind Bustamonte, who is Liberal.

30

There are a lot of unique things about this recall election that make it hard to extrapolate to what would’ve happened in a “real” election or what the impact will be on the presidential race in '04.

While Arnie had a tough time due to McClintock being on the ballot, the Dems also had their issues. They were really caught between a rock and a hard place. They gambled and lost. Had they put a credible candidate, say Feinstein, on the ballot, that would have been a certain death sentence for Davis. The big guns that the Democrats brought out (Clinton and Feinstein, for example) were really pushing for a “No on recall, ignore the rest of the ballot” position.

Of course, if the Dems had been smart and listened to my advice earlier this summer, they’d’ve forced Davis to resign, bypassing the whole recall mess and getting Bustamante in the governor’s mansion.

Davis was toast a long time ago, though, and I’m pretty sure Arnold would’ve beaten him one on one. A Feinstein/Arnold race would’ve been a lot more interesting.

31

'Cause he’s made of liquid metal!

32

Actually, the 800 series Terminator, model 101, had a solid metal endoskeleton, surrounded by living tissue.

The liquid metal model was the one that Arnold destroyed in T2. Given Davis’ malleability in the presence of campaign contributions, I think Davis was that model.

33

DrDeth wrote

Arnold did win by a landslide and not a small one. The state overwhelmingly said “throw out the previous administration,” and of the new possibilities, chose Arnold with a 17 point lead over his closest competitor. And that’s not to mention the McClintock votes he should’ve had.

If what you claim was the case, you’d assume Reps who identify themselves as conservative would have leaned much harder towards McClintock, and those Reps identifying themselves as Liberal/Moderate to lean more towards Arnie, but in fact it was almost identical for both groups:



Candidate       Arnie    McC
Lib/Mod Reps     74%     13%
Cons Reps        75%     19%

DrDeth wrote

That’s opinion, and as it turns out, incorrect opinion.
Of those that voted, 46% of the Dems considered themselves Moderate/Conservative, and 36% of Reps considered themselves to be Moderate/Liberal. Way too close to claim the Dems own the center.

In fact, a lot of us Rep centrists were ecstatic to see a good representative of our views.
source

34

Okay, so 54.6% to 45.4% is “overwhelming”. Got it.

Using your previously descriptor, I think one could say that 46% over 36% is “overwhelming”.

Or is there some “New Math” that I’m unfamiliar with, in which when the numbers lean in the Republican’s favor, they get a double-extra-plus bonus?

Or perhaps one of the two is true:

  1. The number of voters who wanted Davis out was overwhelming and the center is overwhelmingly Democratic.

  2. The number of voters who wanted Davis out versus wanting him in was split fairly evenly, with an edge towards recall, and the center is split fairly evenly between Dems and Pubbies, with an edge to the Dems.

35

DMC wrote

Okay, lower the description of how bad people wanted Davis out from “overwhelming” to “solid”. Still, I’ll continue to call “overwhelming” on both the turnout, and the lead by Arnold.

First, appples and oranges. one is comparing yes to no, where the middle is 50%. the other is comparing all to not all, as DrDeth claimed that “in CA, the Dem party includes the center”.

Second, I should’ve massaged those numbers to be more relevant. The numbers I quoted reflect the number of Dems claiming middle vs. the number of Reps claimming middle. What we really want to see is those claiming middle who are Dems vs. Reps. I think you’ll agree.

It turns out that of the people who voted claiming to be Middles, 56% were registered Democrats and 43% were registered Reps. which is clearly very close.

Third, the number of Dems who voted was almost identical to the number of Reps who did. Which almost by definition means they don’t “own the middle”. The “middle” means – yanno – in the middle, where the 50% mark is. So the “middle voter” in this election happened to be pretty much exactly between the Reps and the Dems.

36

Politics aside, could this Arnold"s election be part of the mass delusion addressed by Michael Moore in Bowling for Columbine? Sub-consciously many Californians might be thinking:

We are in a mess and we need a hero to save us. Arnold is a hero. Arnold can save us. He has done it lots of times.

I’m not wanting to insult the intelligence of Californians at all. I think that this kind of thinking is becoming more prevalent everywhere within the States. Just an opinion.

37

I think Zoe is onto something.

In the absence of any real logical hope of solving California’s problems, voters were willing to latch onto the only hope they could find - the hope that a hero would be able to save them.

Arnold milked this for all it was worth. He knew that he didn’t have to actually say what he was going to do - indeed, had he done so the hope would have been lost. All he had to do was use movie style quips to further blur the lines between fantasy and reality.

In the movie world, clearly Arnold could not lose. Once he said there would be a “total recall” there would be no doubt. And then he would make good on his promise to save California, though nobody knows how, because, after all, he is a hero.

Of course, the voters of California know that real life isn’t a movie. But then again… there are a lot of movie type things happening. Arnold calling for a “total recall” and then winning is like a movie. Maybe he really can save California. He hasn’t said how he plans to do it, but after all, he is a hero. Or was that the movie Arnold? Hmm.

38

is this warren buffet good or bad news?

39

No news. IIRC, he was not named to be on Arnie’s advisory council.

40

As mentioned before, once the signatures for the recall petition were ratified, there was nothing anyone could have done to stop the election from occurring. Even if Davis had resigned, Bustamonte would have been in charge only until October 7th anyway.