Check out the latest Emerson College poll results- McMullin ahead by 4% in Utah (he has 31%, to 27% for Trump, 24% for Clinton, and a lowly 5% for Johnson).
If a third party candidate wins Utah, could that mess up the electoral map?
Without knowing the turnout percentages of Mormons compared to other Utahns I have no idea whether sampling them over the general population breakdown is invalid or not. But how pollsters select their demographic percentages and how they asked their questions is definitely baked into the weight he gives them as it would obviously affect their reliability. I know he doesn’t just take a straight average; it’s kind of a well established point that he rates pollsters, but there’s no reason to think he has to go beyond that here.
Not really. It was expected to be a Trump state. Since he’s losing, it’ll just mean he loses by a bit more. It’d only be an issue if this were a close race.
If it weren’t for McMullin, it would be absolutely impossible for Clinton to win Utah. If he wins, then she still doesn’t win Utah, so it can’t decrease her chances of hitting 270. McMullin winning could prevent Trump from getting to 270, but if he makes the difference there, the election goes to the Republican-controlled House, so that probably still doesn’t make the difference. The only ways that McMullin can make a difference is either if, after going to the House, they decide not to vote on party lines (either holding their nose for Clinton, or compromising on McMullin), or if McMullin spoils Utah by splitting the conservative vote but not winning, and gives Clinton an otherwise-impossible win there.
At least, that’s what he could do in the short term. If he wins Utah, or even loses with a strong showing, even if it doesn’t affect the outcome of this election it might influence Republican decisions going forward. Plus, the resulting Trump temper tantrum will be fun to watch.
I think you are talking cross purposes. Nate’s claim to fame is his model. He uses data, not conjecture, to predict elections. In that regard, he is not ever going to use the analysis to inform anything. That’s who Nate is to the vast majority of people. The guy who took sabermetrics to predicting elections (despite not being the first to do so).
You seem to like analyst Nate instead, who will probably talk about the polling data. Heck, it will probably show up in a “good use of polling” bit on the podcast.
My bolding.
Which was my point: in that article he simply took the average of the polls. Now you are saying he doesn’t? Here’s Nate again, because I think you forgot the part I quoted:
Nate’s obviously not putting any analysis into that.
For your first statement, you have entirely missed the key point and the reason that Utah is in play in the first place.
It has nothing to do with the turnout percentages of Mormons compared to others. Zilch.
It’s straightforward.
First, Clinton’s support is with non-Mormon and under-sampling them by seven percent is going to make a difference. Full stop.
Second. The poor polling question underscored possible support for McMullin.
Something not mentioned in the previous article but is talked about in the current poll is that McMilian’s name recognition has sky rocketed over the earlier poll which heavily skews 538’s results.
More importantly, this brings up the point that Nate’s modeling actually doesn’t account well for this type of event where there is such an unprecedented change in a particular demographic’s voting pattern.
Sure, he doesn’t have to take into consideration any analysis, but if his modeling goes out the window, then what would his best options be? Already several major networks, including Fox and CNN have Utah as a tossup while 538has Trump at 79.9%
Utah is in play because of the Mormon factor and it doesn’t look like there is good polling looking specifically at Mormons and how they will vote.
I’ve previously said some of this in this and other threads, there are a number of reasons while the Mormon factor will have such a large impact. There isn’t any other state which has this high of a percentage of adherents to one church. Mormons generally follow their leaders more than many other churches and with the LDS-owned Deseret News officially not supporting Trump (as well as Clinton), this paved the way for McMillin’s rapid rise.
This will be interesting.
Utah - 1.4 million registered voters. 6 Electoral votes.
-Meh
? These statements are at odds with each other. Undersampling non-Mormons may be perfectly appropriate and give the most accurate view of what would happen at the ballot box.
That doesn’t make sense and doesn’t counter the point I made.
Sure it does. You said Silver didn’t address the fact that Mormons were oversampled in that poll and I’m saying maybe he didn’t address it because maybe it’s perfectly normal practice for Utah polling. But you’re right, all he talked about was taking a straight average in that editorial. What I was saying upthread had more to do with the average he himself publishes, which I see in the case of the YouGov poll, he adjusted Trump’s lead downwards from +17 to +15.
Just so we’re on the same page here, you know that polls are trying to match the voting population not the general population, right? Like ~17% of the population is Latino and ~13% is Black. If your polling sample matched that then you wouldn’t get a good prediction as to how the vote would go because Black Americans vote more than Latinos do.
OMG, McMullin’s a Conehead!: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/evan-mcmullin-utah/index.html
Here’s more on his running mate: Mindy Finn - Wikipedia
I think McMullin will win Utah. And Trump is gonna be furious.
Clinton is quintupling her office in Utah. OK, from one paid staff member to five, but that’s five more than I’ve ever seen before. She’s not putting money into advertising though, so this is probably more to make Trump unhappy. He’s got his hands full elsewhere and would have no way to get into the state now. The Utah GOP would laugh in his face. They don’t need or fear his supporters.
This is a crazy race and as Nate Silver says on Stephen Colbert, “Utah is weird.”
It’s possible that Clinton could win Utah, but perhaps more likely that McMullin does. Interestingly his hasn’t picked up any endorsements from any of the major Republicans.
There doesn’t seem to be any polling which breaks support out by religion and more importantly if the voter is active Mormon, who are about 45% to 50% of the population.
Democrats only make up just over 11 Percent of the active voters:
Unaffiliated 37.5%
Republicans 48.8%
Democrats 11.3%
However Democratic presidential candidates have received the following share of the votes:
1988 32%
1992 24% (Perot)
1996 33%
2000 26% (After Clinton)
2008 34%
2012 24% (With Mitts running)
HRC is currently at 24%, which actually isn’t bad considering how deeply unpopular she is among Mormons. That’s probably the base line for Democrats. As Nate always says, independents usually stay with one party,and so it’s likely that only 1/3 to less than a half swing Democratic.
Sigh. At this point I’m starting to believe that you are just arguing for the sake of arguing. If a quote from the leading newspaper in Salt Lake City says that this is unusual, then one would normally believe that.
So, whatever.
[QUOTE=TokyoBayer]
There doesn’t seem to be any polling which breaks support out by religion and more importantly if the voter is active Mormon, who are about 45% to 50% of the population.
[…]
Sigh. At this point I’m starting to believe that you are just arguing for the sake of arguing. If a quote from the leading newspaper in Salt Lake City says that this is unusual, then one would normally believe that.
So, whatever.
[/QUOTE]
That’s a pretty annoying accusation. From 538 when they were still at the NYT:
[QUOTE=Micah Cohen]
Just over 62 percent of Utah is Mormon, and 75 percent of Utah voters in 2008 identified themselves as Mormon, according to exit polls.
[/QUOTE]
So golly gee, Mormons are indeed overrepresented at the ballot box. Maybe I’m not just arguing for the sake of arguing and maybe I had a valid point.
Democratic early voting is up in Utah while Republican voting is down.
The state GOP leaders said back in June they forecast that they may have a problem and skipped abandoned their normal Plan A and Plan B and went directly to Plan T on how to increase turnout, of course.
Only 8% of the expected vote is in.
Salt Lake County has the highest number of Democrats. Salt Lake City elects Democrats for mayor so these numbers can’t be taken to represent the entire state. Also, early voting is not permitted in Utah county; home to BYU and the third largest city, Provo; ultra conservative; and may or may not actually allow Democrats to live there.
I was a Democratic delegate in Salt Lake County even though we all knew that it was an exercise in futility.
I find it interesting that not only people on the Dope get McMullen completely, 100% wrong, but also the pundits and pollsters. When the professionals can’t get it, it’s not wonder that ordinary folks don’t have a clue.
Utah is different in that no other state has such a high percentage of members of one religion. This comes as a big shock to outsiders when they first come to the state.
FiveThirtyEight has an article on why polls may be underestimating McMullin’s chances in Utah. It mostly focuses on the how the polls were conducted – the ones which show him down the most don’t list him as one of the choices unless the person has selected “other.”
When FiveThirtyEight used only polls which listed him in with Trump and Clinton, his chances of winning the state increased by 70%.
I don’t believe that polls are going to give a really accurate reading of Utah. This type of situation is so unusual that normal methodology and common sense can’t account for it. As an example
I’m too far away to get a real good sense of what is happening, but I would not be surprised if McMullin takes it.
The biggest question is why aren’t Mormon GOP leaders supporting him. If he had the endorsement of a few leaders it might be enough to put him over.
Well, I have come around to thinking he has a shot. It is pretty amazing - even given the oddities of Utah. The guy just barely got into the race on time. I think his announcement was one week before the filing deadline.
I would think Mormon GOP leaders in Utah would be fairly insulated from being “primaried” by Trumpists so they must have other reasons for not jumping on the McMullin train. Maybe they’re worried it would hurt some down ballot candidates if they break ranks. Or maybe they don’t want to be the lone protest vote in the electoral college. Or the fact that he is a complete unknown makes them nervous. He’s had no vetting at all so it would be embarrassing to support him and then it comes out he shot some guy in Kabul just to watch him die. The guy did work undercover for the CIA.
Do any polls just ask “For whom are you planning on voting?”, without listing a set of options?