Why isn't 2024 more like 1968?

For those too young to recall: in 1968 Lyndon Johnson was the incumbent, but his popularity was dragged down by our involvement in Vietnam. He was challenged in the primaries by Sen. Eugene McCarthy, who did surprisingly well (but came in 2nd) in New Hampshire. Following the NH primary, LBJ dropped out of the race – which opened the door to multiple Democrats, including VP Hubert Humphrey and Sen. Bobby Kennedy.

In light of today’s extremely discouraging polls showing that Biden is trailing Trump in 5 of 6 swing states, why aren’t more Democrats challenging Biden? What would it take to get Biden to drop out for the good of the country? (I’m assuming that virtually any other Democrat would poll better vs Trump).

(I’m somewhat mystified as to why Biden is so unpopular, but that’s a topic for another thread)

a) Polls aren’t that accurate this early.
b) There is no charismatic figure like RFK, instead there is RFK Jr. a nutcase.
c) Trump is a far bigger boogieman than Nixon. This was pre-Watergate Nixon, so not even remotely as scary.

The Democrats aren’t nearly as divide now as they were in 1968. Yes, there’s still a far left wing, but only a small number compared to mainstream Democrats, made even smaller as a percentage due to some moderate Republicans becoming Democrats after the events of 1/6/2021. Back in '68, at least the impression I get from the history books (I was born in '77 so that’s the only impression I have) is that the anti-war wing of the Democratic Party was almost half the party, not 5% or so.

IMHO it’s likely that you’re incorrect about this.

ETA: I also think part of the lack of popularity is that Biden hasn’t been as hard on Republicans as we want him to be. In other words we (at least me, and I assume other Democrats) think that he’s doing a bad job at running for president, but doing a good job at being president.

ETA 2: It’s like if the coach of your favorite sports team was using a generic vanilla strategy in the big game. They’re still your favorite team, and you’re going to root for them to win the game, but you’re disappointed in the coach for not having a better game plan.

In 1968, there were a lot of people, Democrats and others, who were opposed to Johnson’s role in ramping up the Vietnam War. The only way many saw for ending the war was to get rid of Johnson.

There’s no équivalant major Biden policy that Democrats are upset with. There’s the usual carping about whether he’s doing this, that or the other policy, but no high objections.

Plus, Democrats have seen what happens when there is a serious party challenger to an incumbent Democratic president: the party disunity contributes to the Democratic nominee losing the general: Humphrey in 1968, Carter in 1980.

Finally, I would ask the OP: who is this generic Democrat who would poll better against Trump, after a potentially bruising primary challenge to an incumbent Democratic president?

Might just want to remember exactly how '68 worked out before we long for a similar election,
Nixon 301 (31,783,783 - 43.4%)
Humphrey 191 (31,271,839, - 42.7%)

This is key. The Democrats/Left are nowhere near as grumbly WRT Joe the President as they were with LBJ in '68. In addition, Nixon was not a former President and was not an incoherent, raving grifter. We know what we can expect from Individual-ONE-Part-II, which is very different from back then. The Ds are essentially united against the crazy that the Rs represent, which did not really surface in a present-like form until the ascent of Saint Ronald 40-some years ago.

I always figured Bobby Kennedy would have won if not assassinated. Humphrey had the personality of playdoh.

My assumption is that Biden’s negatives are (1) his age and (2) inflation. Any Democrat < 70 who is not in charge of the Fed would not have those negatives, and would therefore allow anyone who’s queasy about Trump but also unhappy with Biden to vote Democratic.

So a name?

This does point to a serious flaw in the Democratic party. Who are the names? They’ve got very little coming up the pipeline. It is scary.

Definitely. IMHO this is another aspect of not just Biden, but Democrats in general, being good at governing but bad at running for office.

There is historical conspiracy theory (that I can appreciate more than I can prove) that Eugene McCarthy was the Kennedys’ stalking horse: there to see if an anti-war candidate could gain traction. Also, LBJ was quoted as saying that if he pulled out of Vietnam, the ghost of Joseph McCarthy would jump out of the grave, and all his social reforms would fall victim the same FDR’s had fallen when China went red. Coincidentally trapped between two McCarthys.

Biden and the Democrats don’t see themselves as being on the horns of the dilemma like that. Losing Afghanistan wasn’t the same as China. BLM isn’t creating the need for a new 1960s-style Civil Rights bill to be pushed through congress. The Democrats are counting on the reasonable people to vote for them the same as they counted on gays and women and ethnic minorities voting for them for years, despite not really doing much for gays and women and ethnic minorities: “well who else are you going to vote for? Not those maniacs?” That’s the result of a two-party system with an electoral college. And we have data on how women and Hispanic voters have been going GOP.

I say we allow Trump that shot at a third term he bragged he’d get, then run Obama again.

Maybe many Democratic voters are aware that the recent inflation is a global problem and not just a national one? I live in an EU country, and at one point last year, inflation here was 25 percent.

Maybe. But regarding inflation, IMHO the bigger issue is that those who say they plan to vote for Trump due to inflation are likely using that as an excuse. If it wasn’t inflation it would be something else. And if it was’t Biden, they’d find some other excuse to not vote for whichever other Democrat it turned out to be. They plan to vote for Trump no matter what, because secretly they like him and just don’t want to admit it.

That’s why it’s so important to pound on the fact that it’s a sin to vote for a Republican. Make sure that everyone is reminded of this at every opportunity. And if someone tries to tell you something stupid like “That’s just your opinion, man,” explain to them that they’re wrong.

No one ever went broke under-estimating the awareness of the American voter.

Remember all those Democrats who ran in 2020? Klobuchar, Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Castro, Bloomberg…all are still available. I think we can scratch Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (age).

Those aren’t great names and Bloomberg is also old. 81 in fact.

Not one of them polled well against Trump in 2020.

Who collectively have less name recognition than Biden’s pet dog. Assuming he has one.

The real problem is the number of Democrats and democratic sympathizers who keep buying the Reactionary Wacko Traitor propaganda that Joe is too old and too unpopular to win.

If those Democrats in Wisconsin have bought that propaganda and it causes them to vote for Trump – which is actually what the latest polls are saying – then it doesn’t matter if it’s propaganda, or cold hard facts. It’s a problem that could result in a 2nd Trump term. So how do you counter the propaganda? Run ads saying Biden really isn’t old, and really is popular?