Lott and Stossel’s map based on PredictIt prediction market data
ElectoralMap.net’s similar map based on Pivit prediction market data
Pivit participants see Clinton as losing Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina and predict an electoral vote outcome of 279 Clinton to 259 Trump.
PredictIt participants see those three states as Clinton’s by 53.4%, 65.7%, and 62.3% respectively, for an electoral vote outcome of 341 Clinton to 197 Trump.
Anyone with sufficient familiarity with the election betting market thingie who would care to address the discrepancy?
OK, actually a 62 point diff. Math ain’t my strong point.
One big difference between PredictIt and Pivot is that PredictIt bettors are betting real money while Pivit is just for fun.
AHunter3, I think you mean “difference of 62 in predicted electoral vote count.” I’ve never heard the word “point” used to refer to EV numbers. “Point” usually means percentage of voters (in other words, predicted popular vote figures).
To clarify further: A “70-point Clinton lead” – a popular vote tally of, say, 83% Clinton, 13% Trump, 4% Johnson – would almost surely translate into a clean electoral sweep for Clinton (538-0). Maybe, just maybe, Trump would still win Wyoming – 3 EVs, I think. So, 535-3. Maybe. More likely 538-0.
Ohio is about even-money at Predictwise. (“10-11 You Pick.”) If two punters give it differently to Hillary and Donald they’re equally right — or, rather equally wrong, since the informative quote is just to say it’s even-money!
Iowa is also about even-money at that site, while North Carolina, Florida and Nevada are all leaning for Hillary.
Predictwise shows a 14% chance of Demo House control and 64% chance of Senate control. Senate control is a squeaker: even assuming the Democrats score Bayh, Feingold, Duckworth and McGinty, D+I adds up to only 49 seats. They’ll need Ross in NC or Maston in NV or Hassan in NH to go with V.P. Kaine to get Senate control.