The time has finally come, or should I say, we are approaching the light at the end of the tunnel. The tunnel being the democratic primary season of 2008. We have seen some interesting acts this primary season.
-Fiery surmons from Obama’s past minister.
-Rovian tactics by the Clinton Campaign.
-Enlightening prose from some wonderful Obama speeches.
-Hiring and firing of campaign managers.
-Rejecting, disowning, denouncing of past aquaintances.
-The most money ever seen in any democratic primary being raised from the internet.
-Up to the minute information on each candidate and what they are saying and doing.
-Up to the minute state by state polls.
-A divide almost right down the middle between both candidates.
-Vitriol of the highest degree among Dems.
Over the weekend the Rules and By-Laws Committee met to figure out an agreement to seat the FL and MI delegates who were penalized for having their primaries too early. Clinton supporters came out in droves to protest [almost as if they knew Clinton wasn’t going to get everything she wanted] and protest they did. Clinton supporting women shoving Obama supporters. Democrats shouting that they would vote for McCain! Or shouting Denver, Denver, Denver in hopes Clinton brings this fight to the convention.
In this hotly contested primary season we have also seen an overwhelming group of new voters coming out in droves to register democrat, almost 3-1 over the republicans. But how accurate are those numbers really?
Why would someone who is a true democrat ever, EVER vote for a Republican in a national election? Clinton doesn’t want her supporters voting Republican in November [we hope] but some of them seem to not be getting that fact.
Are the fiery group of Clinton supporters shouting they will vote for McCain really just blowing steam? Will Clintonites really stay home in the fall instead of voting Obama?
Personally, I think not. I think Clinton supporters will by in large support Obama in the fall. Even if a small percentage come to vote for him, he should be able to cinch the presidency, and the United States will have it’s first ever Bi-Racial President.
What do you think? Will true Clinton dems support Obama, or will they go to the dark side and cast their vote republican?
True dems will support Obama, but the national election isn’t fought between “true dems” and “true repubs”. It’s fought between the 20% or so of the population who can swing both ways, depending on the issues of the week or their feelings about the candidates.
There are some number of Clinton supporters who “tend republican” who were enthusused about a viable Female candidate, but lacking that in the General will swing back republican. The are also some number of “true dems” who were fanatical Hillary supporters who got blinded by passion and believe Obama cheated and lied to the nomination, and will vote to spite him. But trying to guess what those numbers may be is impossible, particulary when the election is many months off and things will have had time to cool and settle.
This is not quite the right question, seeing as how there’s a third option (which you acknowledge above, but often gets left out in the soundbite question).
As an Obama supporter, I (mostly) made up my mind a long time ago that if Clinton took the nom, I’d either not cast a presidential vote or write in Obama’s name anyway. This is the first presidential election in my voting lifetime where I’ll get to vote for a candidate I want in office (rather than voting for the lesser of two “evils”). Thus, I could understand a fervent Clinton supporter not voting for Obama.
Well, I guess a Democrat, even a “true” Democrat would vote Republican if he thinks the Democratic candidate is so bad his or her election would hurt the country or party. I consider myself a Democrat, but nevertheless, a few years ago, voted for the Republican House candidate. I like to think I’m a decent Democrat, and the Democratic representative represents my views pretty well, but I think he’s a pretty horrible person, and I can’t support him.
I think there are a lot of libertarian leaning Americans in both parties who have always held their noses to vote, voted third party, or haven’t voted at all in the past. And I think many of them support Obama.
I’m not fearing a mass exodus to McCain. I’m wondering what percentages of people who are current Clintonites will vote McCain? Guestimates only, because hard numbers would be impossible.
My debate is, if someone calls themself a democrat, why would they turn around and vote republican if their democratic candidate didn’t take the nomination?
I wonder why democrats would be willing to put up with another 4 years of Bush-like tendencies and policies just because their horse comes in second?
It’s not just Bush-like tendencies. They have to reconcile with voting in a man who will appoint justices to overturn Roe v Wade. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Odd, since in The Audacity of Hope he very clearly and eloquently says he’s going to tax rich people to pay for social programs. That may or may not be a good idea, but it’s hardly a libertarian idea.
This isn’t about “true Democrats”. It’s about a small number of independent or swing voters in key, swing states. Frankly, I think Clinton has a pretty compelling argument that she is a better candidate against McCain as judged by the electoral map. I think Obama is a good candidate-- it’s just that Clinton is a bit better. Obama needs to gin up support from Hispanics against a Republican candidate who does pretty well with that demographic. IIRC, he got 70% of the Hispanic vote in his last Senate election.
And if there is national security issue that arises between now and November, a lot of people are going to go with the older guy who has military experience over the younger guy. Right or wrong, that will happen.
If those McCain-leaning Hillary dems actually vote for him, how will they feel if he wins and proposes only staunchly conservative judges to the SCOTUS and other federal posts throughout the land?
Granted, McBush will have to deal with a democratically controlled congress, and I don’t know how successful he’ll be in this regard, but why even give him a chance?
Honestly, if you supported Clinton and would now switch to McCain, your thought process is so alien to me that I’m at a loss to understand it.
Clinton’s vision of America is one of universal health care, a swift withdrawl from Iraq, a repudiation of Bush’s economic policies, protecting reproductive rights for women, etc. McCain’s policies are almost entirely diametrically opposed to Clinton’s vision on these issues. I can understand voting for McCain if you agree with his policies. I can’t understand saying “I believe in Clinton’s vision for America but she lost so now I’ll vote for the exact opposite.”
I have to wonder if the “If not Clinton then McCain!” people have asked themselves if Hillary Clinton wants an America still mired in Iraq, still without any UHC, supporting the tax cuts for the wealthy and with a Supreme Court stocked with conservative judges for the next 20+ years. All to “punish” Obama and the DNC.
If you thought the Democratic candidate was a bad person with bad policies, would you vote for him just because he has a D after his name? I mean, if you really thought he was so incompetant or so wrongheaded, his election would be a disaster for the country?
Now, I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking that Obama isn’t incompetant, and he’s not wrongheaded, and his election would be great for the country. But that’s how some Clinton supporters perceive him, and the people who see him that way aren’t going to vote for him even if he’s a Democrat.
Coporate welfare is one issue where the left and the libertarians see eye to eye. But Obama indicated he’s going to raise taxes on upper income people. Also his publicly avowed stance on NAFTA shouldn’t endear him to a free trader, though a lot of people claim he didn’t really mean it.
I like Obama and voted for him. I’ll vote for him again, for all my vote matters. I think he’s smart enough to do what needs to be done regardless of ideology. But he’s a fairly traditional liberal in the Kennedy tradition.