I mentioned this in another thread, but Reagan, Clinton and Obama all had painful first midterm elections that were seen as a rebuke of their Administrations, and all three went on to comfortably win reelection. Barring health reasons, I doubt that Biden is going to decline to run for reelection.
I’d give it 2% probability. Here’s an Atlantic article saying he’s too old:
They say, for the most part, that Biden is coping fine. You know, despite the 8.6 percent inflation, his depressed approval numbers, his vice president’s worse approval numbers, the looming wipeout in the midterms, and all the other delights attending to Biden as he awaits the big, round-numbered birthday he has coming up in a few months. But here’s another recurring theme I keep hearing, notably from people predisposed to liking the president. “He just seems old,” one senior administration official told me at a social function a few weeks ago.
Polls terribly, hasn’t proven herself capable of running her office effectively during the past couple years, didn’t run a very good presidential campaign in 2020.
Fuck no. And whoever in his staff even has the idea should be sentenced to watch (shudders) Seinfeld reruns for the rest of their life.
GQP has loud-mouthed morons.
DEMS have no one new. No one fresh. They need to find someone.
I don’t get people thinking that Biden not running would help the Democratic Party. You’d lose the incumbent advantage. You’d need the incumbent to be a huge albatross before you’d be better off getting rid of them. Or someone who was so absolutely amazing that everyone would vote for them. The former isn’t true, and the latter is someone who doesn’t seem to exist.
And that’s without getting into how it would play into the conspiracy theories.
Agree w the former. Well-known well-adored loud-mouthed morons. Rightly or wrongly, the R base seems quite happy with their apparent front runners.
As to the latter:
Agree the Ds would be better served to have a fresh up-and-comer. But somebody (anybody) is not going to go from relative obscurity to plausible front runner against the GOP’s several well-known loudmouths in the couple of years remaining. It’s already too late for that. Whoever this savior is, they should already be well apparent now. The worst possible outcome for the Dems would be a primary season starting with 10 relative unknowns in a dead heat. We can certainly recall R primaries that started that way. Including jokes about “So-and-so and the 7 (or 20) dwarves.”
Harris may or may not be a spent force, but she occupies a blocking position, and ironically the only thing that removes that blockage is her running as Biden’s VP, or her withdrawing altogether. The latter being vanishingly unlikely, the former is the only remaining option that would permit some other non-Biden non-Harris serious front runner(s) to emerge.
It’s very ugly to say this, but until the Rs recover their sanity (which may be decades from now), IMO the Ds need to run white men, and only white men. The Rs of course will rubbish whoever the Ds run. But the Ds handing the Rs a convenient, inescapable, and very resonant additional stick to beat the D candidate with is a very bad idea.
The hard-core white supremacists are already firmly in the R camp. But there are one hell of a lot of “middle Americans” who still are partially susceptible to the racist / sexist argument. Perhaps not to the point of voting R, but every D voter who stays home because “I can’t quite bring myself to vote for a non-white-cishet-male” is a problem for the Ds.
Trump won in 2016 almost entirely due to the number of Ds who rationalized that they personally could get away with not voting for Hillary Clinton, while still preferring that the D candidate win. And not solely because they didn’t like her as a politician. In a lot of cases it was because they didn’t like her entirely due to her sex. IMO the Ds would be far better served in 2024 to avoid that unforced error a second time.
Let me be clear that the immediately above is not how I think about my vote. But it is how I think about a lot of other voters who might plausibly vote D given a candidate suitable to their tastes.
The R primary system is designed to very quickly converge on a single front runner for everyone to rally around. The D primary system is designed to delay that decision as late as possible so the later voting states aren’t handed a fait accompli by the earlier ones.*
Given that difference and the relative strength of R candidates with their base, plus their built-in electoral and Electoral College advantages, etc., the Ds really, really need to have their clear front runner emerge early. So they can begin to direct their fire towards the R side, not towards each other. All primaries (of both parties) are to some degree damaging circular firing squads. The sooner that period draws to a close, the less damage done. Which will not happen in a field of a dozen relative unknowns each taking their first real whack at the nomination.
All of which leads me to the conclusion that a Biden/Harris ticket in 2024 is the best path for a D win. At least assuming nothing majorly unexpected happens to them or to any of the R front-runners or to the country between now and primary season.
* Aside: Of course one can see the deep-seated ideological differences between the parties in their respective choice of methodologies. Concentrated power versus diffuse power. One can also see the difference between a tactic geared mostly to winning for winning’s sake, versus one geared mostly to being consistent with one’s ideology.
Biden is too conceited. There is no way he wouldn’t run in 2024 even if everyone begs him not to.
The difference is that Carter, Bush Sr., and McCain weren’t fresh off an almost successful / seemingly still ongoing coup attempt. Ironically 2024 actually will be about stopping the steal, and I don’t think that Biden or Harris are going to be the best at doing that. If they were, we wouldn’t have had to wait 1 1/2 years for Liz Cheney to (attempt to) do that job for them.
As to the question of whether Biden should run again, I’m not very hopeful that the Democrats would pick a moderate - and especially not a young one.
Unless you all can put forward a name that’s not ridiculous, you’re best off to stick with Biden.
If you can find someone that would steal Republican votes, then kick that mummy out of the seat.
I think a lot of people who want Biden to not run again envision a 2024 Democratic primary like a tasting menu – “The Biden I had last time was a little disappointing and I keep hearing bad things about the Harris. The southern fried Roy Cooper looks nice and homey. Hmm, I’ve tried the Buttigieg, it was decent but not very filling. Oooh, the Stacey Abrams looks enticing though I’m not sure why it’s on the menu.” And Democratic voters will just politely decide what they feel like having.
An open primary in 2024 would be traumatic for Democrats. Harris will start as the heir presumptive and any attempt to deny her the nomination (particularly for a white man) will tear the party apart along racial and gender lines. If Biden’s style of moderate Democratic politics is seen to have “failed,” Democratic candidates may try to outbid each other in running to the left. That would risk reversing the success that Biden had reclaiming the “blue wall” in PA, WI and MI, and picking up GA and AZ.
And people are projecting WAY too much based on the current political environment into 2024. Politically, the best thing that happed to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama was losing unified Democratic control of Congress during their first midterm. It gave them a villain to fight, which forced Democrats to close ranks around them and let them pick fights that clarified the stakes for voters. Biden saw all of this firsthand, and I can’t imagine that he wouldn’t view a Republican takeover of Congress the same way.
It’s not about the best name to replace Biden. It’s about having a campaign vs. not having a campaign. Biden chugging along like he’s currently doing during the first half of 2024, talking about how “I’m too busy running the country to worry about Trump” would be bad. My guess is that this is the most likely approach Biden would take if he runs unopposed. Meanwhile Trump would be laying the foundation to steal the election. In a 10 or 12 person field of non-incumbents, the topic will inevitably turn to stopping Trump’s shenanigans, which will be key in 2024.
ETA. Yes, my assumptions include that Trump will win the Republican nomination and that regardless of what the issue of the day is, whether abortion, guns, Ukraine, inflation, or something not currently on the radar, the real issue is going to be Trump’s attempt to steal the election.
“I will not seek, and shall not accept, the nomination of my party…”
I guess I don’t understand what exactly Presidential candidates Pete Buttigieg or Cory Booker (or whoever) would do to “stop the steal” that Biden couldn’t or wouldn’t. Rally public opinion? If Republicans cared about public opinion, they would respect the outcomes of the votes in their states to begin with.
Since he is the only one that has beaten trump, why should he? I doubt that trump himself will run, but it will be a hand picked trump dude.
Biden can win.
Harris probably can’t. Pete can’t. Who else?
Don’t forget, AOC will be 35 the month before the election.
While we have some good folks. Pete for one, Amy Klobuchar for another. Neither has a chance. Nor does Kamala. Joe, maybe. But really, he’s getting a little long in the tooth.
DeSantis certainly has a chance. God help us. I can’t imagine a ‘Trump’ with a brain.
So who? We know the wing nuts will not vote for anyone that has a D after their name but we need them .
Maybe John Kasich?
If that is true, then isn’t that an admission that the Democrats are already torn along racial and gender lines? That doesn’t speak of a party in a healthy position if they aren’t able to run an open selection process.
The Rs had a few years in the comparative wilderness when the Tea Party first really got going and lots of traditional Rs that the TPers labeled as “RINOs” lost to D candidates in Congress. In that sense the divided Rs were not in a healthy position and couldn’t run an open selection process. They “solved” their problem over the next ~10 years by moving so far right that the TP was left behind on their left.
The difference with the Ds today is that given the likelihood the next R victory will be the end of US democracy, the Ds can’t afford to spend now and the next 10+ years in the wilderness trying to factionally decide what they stand for that is also electable.
They’ve got to get it right in 2022, 2024, 2026, and probably ever 2 years for the next 50 until the R-leaning electorate falls out of thrall to their lawless authoritarian tendencies.
If the Dems nominate Kasich, I will personally be storming the Capitol and setting myself on fire.