There will be war with Iraq, before the end of the next winter. And it will have the support of many Muslim countries (including, importantly, Turkey and possibly Jordan). There will also be widespread coalition support for the attack.
How’s that workin’ out for you Sam ? Stickin’ to that story?
While we’re on the subject of your fanciful predictions, how about thisgolden oldie
So far, the number of casualties in Iraq is under 300, and just barely surpassed the number of casualties in the first Gulf war. Considering that that war was intended to simply push Iraq out of Kuwait, and this one was an invasion and occupation of an entire country, the total casualties are astoundingly low. They’d be astoundingly low even if they WERE 1500. Even assuming soldiers continue to be killed at the same rate as today, it won’t be over 500 by the next election.
Thanks for the memories, Sam .
Wow, that thread is a gold mine of your insight :
I think you’re seeing a very temporary phenomenon. After the Hussein assholes were killed, the Iraqi people have felt less fearful of the Ba’athist regime coming back. Whoever is left in that regime had to step up the attacks, lest the people think that it’s all over and get on with their lives.
The U.S. is getting them, one by one. There isn’t an unlimited supply - this isn’t a popular uprising by the people. It’s a collection of left-over thugs who have to be dug out and killed or captured. Once the back of this resistence is broken, Iraq will get a lot more peaceful.
I’d say your credibility on prognostication is somewhere between Miss Cleo and a fist full of chicken bones.
BTW, my wife and I enjoyed the champagne!
jshore
October 7, 2004, 1:41am
65
Yeah…I’d rate Sam Stone’s predictions in regards to the war in Iraq as just a tad above Richard Perle’s. Here is a ditty of Perle’s from just over a year ago:
I didn’t say they were all right. In fact, I was going to point out myself that my Iraq prediction was wrong. Did you think I was posting my old quote to show how good I was? On the contrary, I thought it was funny that I thought Kerry was a good choice because he’d be strongly pro-war. Silly me - I was listening to the John Kerry of 2002, before Howard Dean caused him to abandon his principles.
But I’m glad I gave you an opportunity to get another dig in. I probably saved you from withdrawal symptoms.
As for the Iraq war and how it came out, my predictions are as good as anyone’s - not very. That’s the way these things go. Anyone who can predict the future with better results than 10% over chance or so should be investing in the market, not posting on message boards.
Shodan
October 7, 2004, 2:15pm
67
Shodan ’s inner monologue grumble grumble darn Dean grumble grumble
Shodan ’s brave public face - my best to Mrs. Firefly , and good health to you both.
Regards,
I didn’t say they were all right. In fact, I was going to point out myself that my Iraq prediction was wrong. Did you think I was posting my old quote to show how good I was? On the contrary, I thought it was funny that I thought Kerry was a good choice because he’d be strongly pro-war. Silly me - I was listening to the John Kerry of 2002, before Howard Dean caused him to abandon his principles.
Hmm, you may be right about Dean helping cause the “mixed message” and flip flop charges. However, Dean helped the Dems immensely with the internet fund raising. Bush had been raising millions for his reelection. Dean showed the Dems a way to help counter the Bush machine.
You are right, as far as posting to message boards is concerned; it’s a good thing we don’t get banned for making predictions that don’t pan out, or most of us would be history.
But when it comes to the Commander-in-Chief, he should be held to a strict performance standard. If he invades a country on false assumptions, or fails to anticipate the resulting problems that result in an intractable morass with no exit strategy, he should be “banned”. I’ll give you a pass here, but Bush’s bad predictions have cost too many American lives and diverted resources from the war on terror. That’s not the way these things go
Say, electoral-vote.com points out an aspect I hadn’t thought of: Kerry is a senator, so if he wins he’ll have to resign that seat. And Massachusetts has a Republican governor. However – http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/senate.html:
However, if Kerry is elected president, he will (presumably?) have to resign his Senate seat before noon on Jan. 20, in which case the Republicans will temporarily have a 50 to 49 majority. Under a brand-new law that the Democrats in the Massachusetts state legislature rammed through over the Republican governor’s veto, Kerry’s successor will be chosen in a special election in the Spring of 2005. That election will then determine control of the Senate. Of course if Bush wins, the Democrats need a net gain of two seats to get control.
Update: electoral-vote.com is now (10/12/04) predicting the Republicans will retain control of the Senate, with 51 Pubs and 49 Dems (including Jeffords). From http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/senate.html:
So what’s the bottom line? Probably the Democrats will pick up Illinois but lose Georgia and South Carolina. Assuming they hold South Dakota and Nevada and the Republicans hold Missouri and Pennsylvania, the Senate will be 45 Democrats (including Jeffords) and 49 Republicans, with tossups in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. To take unambiguous control of the Senate, the Democrats have to win them all. If they win five of the six and Kerry wins and the Democrats win the special election in Massachusetts, they also take control of the Senate and John Edwards gets a real job–breaking ties in the Senate. A tall order, but not impossible. The Republicans have it much easier. They merely have to win two of the six tossups. But November is a long way away. Anything can happen.
DoctorJ
October 13, 2004, 1:54am
74
In breaking news from My Old Kentucky Home , the Senate race in Kentucky–previously a Republican lock–is quickly becoming up for grabs. (Link requires watching a brief commercial.)
A summary, from my LiveJournal :
In brief, Jim Bunning has been acting so strangely that there has been speculation that he is suffering from an early senile dementia, such as Alzheimer’s. His bizarre behavior surrounding the debate, held today in Lexington–flagrantly breaking the rules he had crafted so meticulously, and lying about his reasons for doing so–has only added legitimacy to the question.
This race was almost uncontested, since Bunning had a 24-point advantage early on and there were many more pressing races for the national Democratic machine to focus on. But that 24-point lead is now down to 6 (according to Daily Kos), and that was before this debate business. The debate will be shown by WKYT and its sister stations as a lead-in to the Presidential debate on Wednesday; if it looks anything like I suspect it might, Mongiardo could find himself in the Senate in spite of everything.
What, you can’t be senile and get elected (and re-elected and re-elected and re-elected – see Strom Thurmond) to the Senate?
Update from , 10/13/04:
Senate news: Some weird stuff is happening in a couple of Senate races. Salon.com reports that Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), who was expected to coast to an easy re-election over state senator Daniel Mongiardo, has been acting very strangely. Among other things, he tore up his agreement to debate Mongiardo in Lexington, KY, and insisted on being in the Republican National Committee headquarters with no audience or reporters present and the debate held over a satellite link. He refused to debate live so it was taped and will air tonight. People who have seen the tape say Bunning appears to be reading from a TelePrompter, leading to speculation that the 73-year-old Bunning is ill, possibly with Alzheimer’s. It could be worse. In 2000, the people of neighboring Missouri elected a dead man to the Senate. (Popular governor Mel Carnahan died in a plane crash shortly before the election, but he won anyway.)
Although Tom Coburn says he wants to elected to the Senate from Oklahome, he is sure going about it in an odd way. Referring to a campaign worker, Coburn recently said: “He was telling me lesbianism is so rampant in some of the schools in southeast Oklahoma that they’ll only let one girl go to the bathroom.” The school superintendent in that area, Joe McCulley, responded with: “I don’t believe that.” politics1.com has that story. Coburn has a long history of saying things he later regrets. The race is very close and could determine control of the Senate.
I love democracy! I love it!
Sorry, that update was from http://www.electoral-vote.com/ .
And from http://www.politics1.com/:
US SENATE RACE UPDATE. GEORGIA: If a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Zogby poll is accurate, the increased volume of TV spots from Congresswoman Denise Majette (D) has started to close the gap against Congressman Johnny Isakson ® – but she still has a very long way to go. The numbers: Isakson-49%, Majette-34%. GOP Favored.
<snip>
COBURN WARNS OF “RAMPANT LESBIANISM.” It seems that every time that former Congressman Tom Coburn ® pulls close to Congressman Brad Carson (D) in Oklahoma’s US Senate race, Coburn goes and makes another stupid comment. Well, there he goes again. Carson’s campaign released a tape recording Monday they just obtained of comments that Coburn apparently made to an audience a few weeks ago. Here’s what Coburn said: “Our [campaign] rep down here in the southeast area, he lives in Colgate and travels out of Atoka. He was telling me lesbianism is so rampant in some of the schools in southeast Oklahoma that they’ll only let one girl go to the bathroom. Now think about it. Think about that issue. How is it that that’s happened to us?” This pronouncement was apparently news to everyone in the Colgate area. “He knows something I don’t know. We have not identified anything like that. We have not had to deal with any issues on that subject – ever,” said Colgate School Superintendent Joe McCulley. “I don’t believe that [report] … [our attorneys] haven’t said anything to me about that,” added the Executive Director of the Oklahoma State School Boards Association. These kind of frequent gaffes were what worried GOP leaders in DC when Coburn announced his candidacy – and was what prompted them to back his failed primary opponent.
Update from http://www.electoral-vote.com/ , 10/14/04:
Senate news: The salon.com story I referred to yesterday about Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) using a TelePrompTer during his debate with state senator Daniel Mon… has been confirmed. The Kentucky Post reports that Bunning’s campaign has admitted to using a TelePrompTer to read his opening and closing statements but says that was not cheating. Next question. Why would an incumbent U.S. senator who has given thousands of speeches on and off the floor of the Senate need a TelePrompTer? In a state as heavily Republican as Kentucky, all he would have had to do to be re-elected is to repeat three times: “I fully support President Bush and as a senator I will vote to give him whatever he requests to defeat the terrorists.” My guess is (1) he has Alzheimer’s disease and (2) Kentuckyans just love horse races and they are about to get one for the Senate. As soon as I can get my hands on a poll there, I will report it.
From ]'http://www.politics1.com , 10/14/04:
“WHAT’S THE STORY WITH SENATOR BUNNING?” US Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) looked like a lock to win re-election a few months ago, but his erratic behavior since then has started to raise serious questions about his mental health. The state’s leading newspaper – the Louisville Courier-Journal – editorialized Wednesday that “Jim Bunning continues his descent into conduct that members of his own party find disturbing and that his opponent accurately describes as unbecoming of a U.S. Senator … Bunning apparently can’t grasp that the reason for all the speculation about his health and stability is his own very visible, very offensive behavior … Bunning’s fellow Republicans are among the most chagrined and are desperately offering this or that excuse for his actions” Bunning implied at a campaign event that his Italian-American opponent, State Senator and surgeon Dan Mongianardo (D), looked like he could be one of Saddam Hussein’s sons. When there was a demand for an apology, Bunning turned even more surly and countered that “Dr. Dan” owed him an apology for spreading rumors about his health. Bunning also also surrounded himself with an extra-heavy set of security bodyguards that virtually keep most of the public and media at a distance from him at events. Bunning falsely claimed a union endorsement he didn’t win. The strangest of all was his conduct related to Monday’s televised debate with Mongionardo. At the last minute, Bunning claimed he had to fly back to DC for important Senate votes (note: there were none scheduled or held). Instead, he agreed to appear in the debate from a remote location: the private studio in the RNC headquarters in DC. During the debate, it appeared to viewers that Bunning was reading his comments from a TelePrompter device. On Tuesday, Bunning’s campaign acknowledged that Bunning did use the device – but tried to explain he wasn’t cheating. Under the debate rules, both men were allowed to bring and refer to written notes. Bunning’s spokesman said the TelePrompter was within the rules because it was just another form of notes. Mongiardo’s campaign cried foul, saying it was “an outrageous abuse of the agreement” and “cheating.” Expect lots more stories from the Kentucky media in the coming days questioning Bunning’s mental “health and stability” – to quote the Courier-Journal – unless he can find a way to answer the growing concerns. In more bad news for the incumbent, the state’s other leading newspaper – the Lexington Herald-Leader – endorsed Mongiardo on Wednesday. Bunning is still a strong favorite, but the DSCC started to pour money into Mongiardo’s campaign this week now that they smell the feignt scent of blood in the water.
US SENATE RACE UPDATES. SOUTH CAROLINA (WCSC-TV/SurveyUSA): Congressman Jim DeMint ® - 46%, State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenebaum (D) - 43%. DeMint’s recent gaffes seem to be cutting his once commanding lead. And, FYI, there are four other Senate candidates on the SC ballot: two from the far left and two from the far right. GOP Favored. PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac College): US Senator Arlen Specter ® - 55%, Congressman Joe Hoeffel (D) - 36%. Safe GOP.
Updated from http://www.electoral-vote.com/ , 10/15/04:
Senate news: A new poll in South Carolina puts Inez Tenenbaum within 3% of Jim DeMint in their race to succeed retiring Democrat Fritz Hollings. DeMint was expected to win easily. A new poll in Louisiana has Republican David Vitter holding steady at 43%, with his three Democratic challengers together at 33% and 24% undecided. The problem for Vitter is that the undecideds are probably undecided about which of the three Democrats in the race they want to challenge Vitter in the December runoff. Remember that no Republican has ever been popularly elected to the Senate from Louisiana in history although a couple were appointed by the state legislature during reconstruction.
More Senate news: I got a lot of mail about Sen. Bunning, both positive and negative. For me, the bottom line is still: when a U.S. Senator is incapable of giving a 2-minute speech unless he is hidden in a secret room with a TelePrompTer, he obviously has some kind of (mental) problem. A fully-functioning U.S. senator can talk for hours on end–sometimes days on end–if given half a chance. Bunning can squelch this story instantly by scheduling a 90-minute live televised press conference and inviting every newspaper and TV station in Kentucky to send a reporter. Let’s see if he does it.
