Update from http://www.electoral-vote.com/ , 10/19/04:
Senate News: A new Garin Hart Yang (D) poll in Kentucky shows the race between incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and challenger Dr. Daniel Mongiardo to be an exact tie. Bunning should have won reelection in a walk, but his increasingly bizarre behavior is catching up with him. He showed a picture of an expensive house to the press and claimed it was Mongiardo’s (it wasn’t), then he said Mongiardo looked like one of Saddam’s sons, and finally he cheated during the debate by hiding in the Republican National Committee Headquarters and using a TelePrompTer, leading to speculation that he has serious mental problems. For these reasons, I have moved Kentucky to the list of competitive seats on the Senate page.
In South Carolina, Republican senatorial candidate Jim DeMint has apologized for saying that gays and unwed mothers should be forbidden from teaching in the public schools. But he didn’t retract the statement. His race there against Inez Tenenbaum, the state’s school superintendent, is also surprisingly close. In Oklahoma, Tom Coburn has repeatedly tried to unsay things (such as his supporting the death penalty for abortionists–and this coming from an obstetrician who has personally performed abortions). Finally, In the Illinois Senate race, Marylander Alan Keyes has opposed gay couples raising children saying: “If we do not know who the mother is, who the father is, without knowing all the brothers and sisters, incest becomes inevitable.” Republicans are a lot livelier this year than usual. And the liveliness seems to be working. My current projection shows the new Senate with 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats (including independent Jeffords) and 2 tossups, but 8 or 9 races there are very close and change from day to day.
jayjay
October 19, 2004, 8:30pm
82
Oh. My. Og. I somehow missed this when it happened!
So does this mean that Keyes is against closed adoption in general as well? Or is it only a danger for someone who doesn’t know exactly who his close relatives are to be raised by gay folk, who apparently won’t tell him to be careful not to marry his sister?
Here a nice take on the situation – from The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/thebeat/index.mhtml?bid=1&pid=1925:
SENATE SHIFTS: Could Democrats retake control of the Senate on November 2? It’s possible – not because Democrats have done so much right but, rather, because Republicans have done so much wrong. The big mistake? In several states, Republicans nominated loose-cannon candidates who have blown up. For instance, Oklahoma Republican nominee Tom Coburn has been hit by scandal after scandal; most recently, he was caught on tape ranting about “issue” of “rampant lesbianism in some of the schools of southeast Oklahoma.” In South Carolina, Republican nominee Jim DeMint stirred controversy by declaring his personal enthusiasm for banning not just gays and lesbians but unmarried moms from teaching. Now, in Oklahoma and South Carolina, both Republican- leaning states, polls show the Senate races are toss-ups.
But the most fascinating GOP crack-up has come in Kentucky, a state where the Senate race wasn’t supposed to be competitive this year. Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning refused to show up for a scheduled debate last week; he demanded that he be allowed to present his remarks from the Republican National Committee’s television studio in Washington. Bunning then used a Teleprompter to deliver his opening and closing statements. Bunning has also compared his Democratic challenger, Dr. Dan Mongiardo, with Saddam Hussein’s sons. And when the senator visited Paducah, Kentucky, he demanded extra police protection because he feared being attacked there by al-Qaeda. The Louisville Courier-Journal, Kentucky’s largest daily newspaper, asked in a recent editorial: “Is (Bunning), as he ages, just becoming a more concentrated version of himself: more arrogant, more prickly? Certainly that would be a normal occurrence. Or is his increasing belligerence an indication of something worse? Has Senator Bunning drifted into territory that indicates a serious health concern?” Both the Courier-Journal and the state’s second largest newspaper, the Lexington Herald- Leader, have endorsed Mongiardo. “Fortunately,” wrote the Herald-Leader. “Democrat Dan Mongiardo is as in tune with what Kentucky needs as Bunning is out of touch.” Most polling shows the race getting closer. Mongiardo has momentum, although he still lacks the funds he needs. If national Democrats decide to shift attention to the contest, that could change. Best bet: Democratic Senate Campaign Committee chair Jon Corzine will make a move. This is too attractive a prospect to pass up.
Where does this leave the competition for control of the Senate, where the current split is 51 Republicans versus 48 Democrats and 1 Independent (Vermont’s Jim Jeffords, who caucuses with the Democrats)?
With five Democratic senators stepping down in the south, and with Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle facing a tough reelection race in South Dakota, the party went into the 2004 competition at a distinct disadvantage. But Daschle is running even or better and Democrats now appear likely to hold several of the southern seats. At the same time, they will pick up a GOP seat in Illinois and could do the same in Colorado, Oklahoma and Alaska. If Kentucky comes into play, the prospect of a 50-50 split in the Senate, or even a 51-49 Democratic majority, will no longer seem so remote as it did just a few weeks ago.
Update from http://www.electoral-vote.com/ , 10/26/04:
Senate news: A new poll in Kentucky shows Dr. Daniel Mongiardo has closed the gap with incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning. Mongiardo is only 1% behind in the latest Garin Hart Yang (D) poll. All in all, the projected Senate is 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats (counting Jeffords as a Democrat) with tossups in Florida and South Dakota.
Frank
November 3, 2004, 4:06am
86
Bricker:
I take Paypal.
I was going to wait another hour or so before conceding, but there’s probably not much point to it. I’m not on paypal; I’d prefer to mail you a check.
Bricker
November 3, 2004, 4:08am
87
Well, no need to rush; we’ll settle details in the next few days. Gore conceded and then had to withdraw it, after all; no reason not to wait until things are locked down.