I wasn’t able to read the full article. Got through about three paragraphs and then it faded out, with suggestion I should subscribe.
Sure, the ones who do vote. Those who might not may make a difference here.
Thanks for checking. Rats. That’s a disappointment.
The problem DeSantis or any Republican nominee besides Trump is going to have is that Trump is not going to accept defeat. He will take it personally and attack the nominee. He will loudly and publicly claim that he really won and that DeSantis (or whoever) stole his primary votes. It is after all, what’s he been saying since 2020. Trump will have no problem sabotaging the Republican party and helping Biden win the election if he’s not the nominee. Trump will not release control of his followers as long as he lives. They should his name and send him money and those are more important to Trump than seeing some other Republican win an election.
The problem for DeSantis is that he’d be running against Biden. Biden’s a bland middle-of-the-road white guy. It’s tough to portray Biden as a threat to the American way of life and whip up a frenzy against him.
Not for the GOP. They just argue that he’s in the grip of Pelosi and under the control of AOC. Easy, actually.
Sure, not for the true believers. But the true believers alone aren’t enough to get somebody elected President. You need to convince a bunch of swing voters to vote for you instead of the other guy. And like I said, convincing swing voters that they should be scared of Joe Biden is going to be a tough sell. Especially after he’s been President for four years already.
DeSantis has already spotted his best chance. Don’t run against Biden. Make the narrative that Biden is old and sick and won’t last four years so a vote for Biden is really a vote for Harris. That’s a story that he can use to scare people.
The problem is that it’s indirect. If DeSantis focuses his campaign on Harris, it makes it look like he’s running for Vice President. A challenger running against an incumbent needs to build himself up and look plausibly presidential.
So DeSantis has a challenge ahead of him if he wants to get elected. And that’s before he has to deal with Trump sitting on the sidelines telling people not to vote for him.
if I was the dem Party id get one of the super PACs to make a straight-out attack /character assassination v commercials that would make the Republican party look like the worst version of the nazi party and 1984’s Big Brother party … and say you want to vote in those bastards or save what’s left of this country?
The sad thing is you wouldn’t have to invent anything as they’re writing themselves every day
Agree. It’s time to stop this whole idea that telling the truth will be enough - some are immune to truth and facts, but swing voters can be persuaded. The Dems need to enhance the truth, concentrate it, repeat it, with examples of Republicans in their own words saying and doing anti-democratic things - hit hard and hit often, and take off the gloves. Start with The Big Lie - make them own it and eat their words - rub it in their effing faces.
IMO this is a complete misreading.
MAGAism is what will win the R primary election. DeSantis’ campaign is essentially “All MAGA policies, but actually enacted this time with lots less craziness & overt graft and corruption and name-calling of our allies”
So I, DeSantis, will double down on racism, misogyny, evangelical rightwingery, Proud Boys=Good, BLM = bad, LGBTQ-is-a-grave-threat-to-the-USA, and deficit spending (on social programs) is death. But unlike Trump, I’ll actually deliver this stuff, not just mouth incoherent but actually false claims that I already did while stuffing my pockets with your tax dollars.
That seems like a message that would resonate with most of the Rs, even Trump’s Rs. The problem is finding somebody to deliver it effectively. DeSantis is (probably) not that guy while Trump is still alive.
Yeah, you’re probably right. Can’t win the R primary without tacking hard right. Can’t win the general after having gone there.
Would you have said that in 2016?
Disclosure: I elided part of @The_Other_Waldo_Pepper’s quote of @snowthx.
Agree w @The_Other_Waldo_Pepper. @snowthx first sentence is correct. But the second sentence totally does NOT follow from the first.
It might, but between the EC and gerrymandering, the Rs are most of the way to winning the Nov 2024 election already regardless of who they put up or what they claim the election is about. They just need to carry a couple of key states and it’s game over for the Ds. If they can’t do that, their fallback plan is court challenges before R-packed state and Federal courts.
Desantis mainly seems to be relying on calling things “Woke” and describing his enemies as suffering from “the Woke Mind Virus” whatever he means by that. Beyond that, nothing very much. He seems determined to die on that hill–if he can’t get Trumpers rallying behind those vague dog whistles, then he can’t get them at all. And I don’t think that’s gonna be enough to pull them away.
I don’t understand how you can say this after the results of every election starting in 2018. 2022 was supposed to be a red wave, everything in the GOPs favor and they lost big. They keep doubling down on the same strategy (equating social media likes to votes, which doesn’t work). What are they doing differently now that will change the results? I’m not seeing it.
Yes the EC handicaps the Dems, but what voters did Trump not get in 2020 that the GOP will get in 2024? There will be a lot more Gen Z voters in 2024 because they’ve turned 18. I’m not trying to say its impossible for the GOP to win, far from it, just that stating that they’re “most of the way to winning” already seems amazingly defeatist and not at all supported by recent history and trends. There’s a reason they are trying so many desperate anti-democratic things these days to win, and it isn’t because they are confident.
Bolding mine.
My fear is that, under the right conditions, they can keep doing the same things and get better results.
What conditions? A serious recession. We already see people blaming Biden for inflation. What if we see a true downturn? people won’t necessarily have to buy in to the whole MAGA mindset to think “Gee, we didn’t have these problems when Trump was president. Maybe the GOP has a point.”
With all due respect to the Z’ers I’m gonna wait to see if they prove themselves on this.
Ergo, the intransigence on the debt ceiling. They want a big crash on Biden’s watch. They failed to get enough traction with the gas prices last year, so they’re looking to go harder.
And of course there’s the whole panoply of vote-engineering shenanigans in the states: “every accusation is a confession” and they want the election rigged… in their favor.
Look at the last few elections. In GenZ 1 out of 5 identify as something other than straight/cis. This intensifying war against the LGBTQ community is actively hurting their most vulnerable friends. They’ve grown up with active shooter drills and school shootings happening all the time. In their lifetime think about what the GOP has been. There is a reason the Republicans are trying so hard to force their ideology in the schools. They know this generation is lost to them and are trying to program the next.
Think about what really drives the decisions in our government. Money. Those that have it own the GOP, the rich business owners that fund the GOP are not going to let them destroy all of their wealth. They tolerate the insane MAGAs, but they will not let them hurt their money. At least that’s how I see it. Maybe I’m wrong, but money is what they care about.
The Straight Dope generally waves its hands at the power potential of Gen Z voters but Republican election operatives are shitting their pants about that cohort. In 2020 they voted at higher rates than any of the other existing generations did at the same age and there will be another 16 million of them eligible next November.
As long as they bother to show up it’ll be awesome. I sure hope they do. They may not be excited enough about Aged Joe Biden and his rather boring and by Gen-Z standards rather conservative plans.
Bernie Bros elected Trump after all. By staying home because Hillary wasn’t close enough to their desires.
With luck the younger folks have absorbed the same lesson we have about Trump and won’t fall for the same trick next time. But that’s IMO far from assured.
For darn sure, to the degree the Rs can reduce or eliminate convenient early voting in the few relevant swing states, that will have an oversized effect on suppressing less interested convenience-obsessed youngsters. “Whaddaya mean there’s not an app for that?” is a signature rallying cry. Heck, I succumb to that thinking myself in less important areas.