It makes sense for Kasich to try, though. He’s widely respected by the more idealistic religious part of the base, and there may be an opening due to Trump/Pence’s ethical scandals.
Trump is tall too. He’s not “Comey tall” but he’s still pretty tall.
I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t. I’d bet on Ben Sasse. Kasich has no national constituency.
A strong economy and a relatively stable middle east( not necessarily peaceful) and he probably won’t face a serious challenge from the left. I suspect that the elites will come at him from a supposed middle of the road position unless some on fire issue pops up at that time.
Kasich is too moderate to win a modern GOP primary, and he’s not especially moderate.
This presidency has been pretty unpredictable, and there’s no way to tell what will happen between now and 2019. That said, if things continue to shake out the way they’ve been, I would expect that Trump will have at least one primary challenger in 2020.
Key question is how many. If he faces one major opponent I think he could easily lose. (Campaign slogan: “Make America Semi-Respectable Again”.) But if too many jump in, then Trump wins easily.
The way things are going I could see Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski make a run. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part.
Looks to me like Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) is trying to put down a marker on the non-batshit-insane-Republican-alternative spot. Sure, he’s flogging a book, but publishing a book seems to be the standard first step in hinting at presidential ambitions, getting name recognition and disseminating positions to a national audience.
Plus he’ll be getting national attention in 2018 as he is up for reelection, and there will most likely be a concurrent special election to fill John McCain’s seat. (If McCain retires or dies in office, the governor appoints his replacement, but the replacement only serves until the next statewide election. At that time there is an election to see who completes the term.)
Cruz and Paul will run because that’s what guys with massive egos do. I won’t rule out another run by Mittens. Little Marco will run as well.
Honestly, I believe Pence (or Ryan) will be the incumbent and run pretty much unopposed in the primary.
By that point, it may be down to ben carson.
He’ll be the only one not impeached and/or in jail, because his defense of “I don’t remember, I think I was taking a nap during that meeting” will actually be believable.
I wonder about that, in that Flake is basically calling out a major portion of his own party. I really believe he is putting the book out from personal integrity, not to build a launching pad for higher office. Now, if it does resonate with backers and money people, then I’m sure he wouldn’t turn them down…but I see him as comfortable being a lone voice in the wilderness (his fondness for wilderness survival trips as support of that trope).
This.
It’s certainly the narrative Trump will try to push from 2018 onwards. IOW, he, like substantially all first term incumbents, is the natural choice; anything else is simply handing ammo to the Most Hated Enemy - the left.
In one sense, Trump’s 2016 primary campaign was taking a lesson from Schwarzenegger’s successful campaign in CA.
Enough folks like macho posturing so much that that can substitute for almost any or every other consideration, policy prescription, doctrine, etc. The fact those fans collectively lean R just indicates under which team banner the macho posturer should stand.
From now to 2020 Trump will certainly be making the most of the megaphone the presidency hands him. A megaphone ideally suited to macho posturing. Doubly so when any and every contrary tidbit of news can be claimed to be wholly fake or at least exaggerated and the claim will be believed simply because Trump said it.
Adding this new NYT article.
There would have to be a reason for people to challenge Trump. I don’t think the threat of impeachment alone will do Trump in; however, if he has cost his party control of congress, or if it looks like it might happen in 2020, that would be an entirely good reason to challenge him. Everything hinges on how popular the Republican brand is in 2019.
Pence calls it “fake news”. Just trying to placate the Big Boy, of course.
It’s still a couple of years away, but I can’t imagine that he’ll run.
Surely Pence won’t mount a primary challenge against Trump, but given the small but nonzero probability that Trump won’t be running, it’d be silly not to be prepared.
When it comes to Trump you can never say “surely”.
Who is to say that Trump doesn’t turn on Pence at some point and begin harassing him in tweets and otherwise, resulting in Pence deciding to challenge for the top slot? You never know.
There is literally no way to know at this point or even speculate as anything but a wild ass guess. It would depend on how things fall out in the next 3 and a half years. All of the choices so far listed in this thread with only a few exceptions are just basically the ones who ran against Trump in the last election (or against Obama), but I doubt any of them would be a serious challenge to Trump. Trump will be his own most serious challenger, as he erodes his popularity among the non-faithful, and if he starts to really piss off his base or they become disillusioned (granted, that doesn’t seem to be happening yet) then it could be anyone. The key will be what is the issue that breaks the camel’s toe? Will it be the lack of progress on health care reform? He seems to have been able to deflect this, so far wrt his base onto the Republicans in congress. Will it be a downward spiral of the economy? Hasn’t happened so far, in fact, the DOW continues to have records set (of course, if it IS a bubble it will be ugly when it pops and that could and probably will land in his lap). Will it be some foreign policy decision that is seen as such a monumental fuckup and clearly on him that no one can deflect? Depending on what it is will depend on who might be a serious challenge to him from his own party when he’s the incumbent. Today, right now? You would be better off speculating on who will win this years Superbowl…and probably able to do so more accurately at this point (I assume football season hasn’t started yet anyway).
Are you sure “camel toe” is the term you intended? 