Pence can’t really challenge Trump, because the obvious question is, if he opposes Trump so much, why did he agree to be his VP? Someone like Kasich, who’s never had much good to say about Trump, would be in a much better position. Can Kasich win? Unknown, as of now, but he’s banking against the chance that it will be possible when the time comes, a prudent move.
I don’t see that as a big deal. You and I know the answer to that. He agreed to be his VP because that was the only VP slot open. Trump already had the nomination.
And people turn against former allies all the time.
Agree this is the crux. Although I might say it a bit differently.
It’s now obvious that besides the Democrats there are now *two *political brands in play: the Republican brand and the Trump brand. They had a marketing alliance for part of 2016 that’s now under great strain and *may *be coming apart.
Which brand of those two is gaining and which is losing market share will be the thing to watch.
Trump may be sui generis, or we may see a flock of mini-me Trumplets stomping around on stage saying outrageous macho posturing things in the lead-up to 2018 congressional races. To the degree those folks appear and find traction in 2018, the situation in 2020 becomes all the more febrile and impossible for us to predict from way back here in 2017.
The Ds (including me) had gleefully watched first the Tea Party and next Trump sorta rip the Right in half. Hoping that the result would be self-destructive division and a cakewalk for the more monolithic Ds. Hasn’t happened.
The other possibility, and one the Ds better wake up to, is that what’s really happening is the reformation of the Rs into two parties: the right, and the far right. In which case the traditional left = D party may simply implode to immateriality in the next election much as has happened in various parliamentary democracies where a once major party wakes up one post-election day to find itself with 10% of the seats on 15% of the vote.
It’s happened in several parliamentary systems that we normally think of as stable sensible modern countries with party arrangements like two majors and a couple midgets. It doesn’t take an Italy or a Gambia to have this happen.
Yeah, I was being deliberately inappropriate (commensurate with Trump’s grab em comment). I didn’t think anyone would catch that, to be honest. 
Instead of the scenario you describe, I think we’ll have large defections of right-leaning voters switch to the Democratic party. Republicans are happier as a minority party and so will fitfully shed popular support until that happens. While many Democrats will be initially happy with this increase in power, the left-wing members of the party will quickly find themselves marginalized. The new Democratic party will be pro-diversity, pro-trade, pro-business, and pro-social-services; neutral on guns; and anti-union. No need to unionize when there’s basic income and universal healthcare. The new Republican party will be a white, heterosexual, Christian party against trade, taxes, and social services. Most of the business types will have switched over to the Democrats–stability in trade and in regulations improves profits, while universal healthcare and other social services relieves them of a lot of responsibilities.
The mental image of Trump’s camel toe caused me great distress. :eek:
538 had a nice discussion on this topic: What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? | FiveThirtyEight. My take from their chat: Trump is likely to be challenged from the center (for example, John Kasich or Jeff Flake) but it’s not likely to succeed. A challenger from the right (for example, Greg Abbott or Tom Cotton) is less likely to happen, but more likely to succeed.