The current 538 aggregate poll has Trump ahead so that reaction isn’t far off.
IMO that’s a pretty silly attitude. It’s very early to be worried about polling, and polling tends to lag anyway. If there’s actually an impact from the conviction we may not know for days, weeks, or even more. 6 months of calling Trump a convicted felon might well have impacts we can’t see yet.
I can almost guarantee it won’t have much of an impact. It might have enough.
I think you will find the general public cares very little about the crime that was committed. I’m glad he was convicted and I care very little about the crime that was committed. His other charges are much more consequential. Everyone already knew about Stormy. They already cared or didn’t about the issue years ago. How the payoff was accounted for doesn’t stir the blood.
Come July it will get interesting with regards to sentencing. I still don’t think too many people will be outraged by accounting.
I see no mention so far, in this thread, of Kennedy, Stein, or West.
I think that voters have long had a strong opinion regarding Trump and Biden, those
being the two most famous Americans, and probably the two most famous people in the world. So you wouldn’t expect basic opinions there to change. It is those flirting with voting third party who will decide the election.
If Biden gets a bounce, it would be from third party voters moving to Biden should they find the prospect of a felon in the White House making Trump a bit more unacceptable than he was prior to last Friday.
I’m unconvinced. Trump lost in 2020 because things mattered (like his terrible COVID response) and his opponents tried hard to beat him.
Maybe it will turn out that being the first president convicted of a crime doesn’t matter, but I won’t believe it just because an internet stranger proclaims it is so. I continue to be baffled by the way so many people on the internet are convinced they can offer anything better than a wild guess when it comes to predicting political events and impacts. Your predictions, like mine and anyone else here, are no more than guesses.
Were you comfortable with the win? Are you comfortable with the chances now? Yes since 2020 Trump has been convicted. We have also had four years of Biden and some voters aren’t happy about him. What do you think has more weight, the perception you are worse off or that Trump tried to hide his affair?
I would feel better about the effect of a conviction if it was about overturning the election in Georgia or pictures of stacks of classified documents next to gold plated toilets.
No, I’m not particularly comfortable - how could I be in a country in which Trump gets even ten percent support?
But that doesn’t mean I’m going to except every pessimistic feelings-based prediction from strangers on the internet.
FWIW I am banking on Biden going into the home stretch as the underdog. While that is anxiety provoking it is precisely that anxiety that will get less likely Biden voters off their behinds and to the polls.
Anxiety is good. It motivates.
I’m shooting from the hip here, but isn’t that standard pre-election trope? The losing side of the previous election always asks that question, as if it’s a given you are not. I’m not crazy about Biden but I’d literally vote for anyone but Trump and I’m pretty sure every other Dem that’s not happy with Biden feels that same way.
Speaking of, I’m not so sure Biden would speak that well at a debate either. He’s not getting any younger and it’s showing. I am 100% confident of his ability behind the helm, but he’s starting to look a little weak. So maybe good that Trump bows out.
Stranger!? Why, I’m your warm, fuzzy internet buddy.
Early signs.
Not exactly the information I am most interested in, whether this would be enough for a Biden leaning voter who was going to not bother to bother after all, but a hint.
Again with so much of the electorate pretty firm, the margins and deciding to vote at all, both of which are likely to be a bit fluid, matter most.
There are things about Biden I don’t like. There are things I’m a hell of a lot more conservative about than most on this board. I would never vote for Trump. But I’m not the one we need worry about. It’s the so-called undecideds in swing states. I think the number of people who actually haven’t decided between the two is approaching zero. It’s more about those fed up with all politicians who can’t decide if they want to vote at all.
And no I’m not confident in Biden during a debate. I’ve been arguing that those who don’t think his decline is an issue are whistling in the dark. He’s never been great as a public speaker or a debater. That has certainly gotten worse over the years.
As I said before, I don’t understand the purpose of a June debate. It’s too soon and other things should happen first. Like the convention. And the sentencing.
Just watched Paul Begala on CNN. Begala’s got some hash marks in this game.
His basic take on the optimum Biden message is (paraphrase):
Donald Trump is all about helping himself. I’m all about helping you.
By implication, Begala feels like hammering on the “convicted felon” aspect is not the best strategy.
I still tend to agree.
The chimerical gettable voters are the only ones that really matter. And whatever percent of that cohort is susceptible to the “Biden’s crooked DOJ” argument will only have that argument reinforced by the “convicted felon” pitch.
To the extent they can be convinced that JB actually wants to, and has a plan to, make their lives better (while Trump is first, last, and always for Trump), my gut says that’s the right path.
Hammering - no. An occasional mention- sure.
This makes sense for Biden’s messaging. It is good because it’s obviously true.
Trump’s entire platform going into the election is all about a personal revenge tour.
What do voters want to see in the next 4 years? A president who is trying to solve THIER problems or a president who is doing nothing but conducting revenge attacks on his personal enemies, and ignoring the country?
Fun fact: 8% is 27% of 30%, which is the same as the crazification factor that was calculated in the Obama v. Keyes Senate contest in 2004.
I’m not sure that voter segment exists (in electorally significant numbers). Anyone with remotely positive feelings towards Biden will vote for him. IMO The swing voters are the ones described in this poll who have negative opinions of both candidates but dislike Biden a bit less and then do seem to be swung by the felony conviction
For Trump voters who might change their mind but haven’t yet, as well as undecided voters, how serious will the sentence need to be for a majority to switch to Biden? Actual prison time and if so how much?
The group I am interested in most does not have to have any even remote positive feelings to Biden and certainly includes the so-called “double haters.” It just means that their dislike/fear of Trump becomes enough to overcome their relatively only distaste of Biden and gets them out to vote against Trump winning. Again my point is that IMHO the meaningful group are not voters potentially swinging between candidates (I think those are very few); it’s the group swinging between seeing enough of a positive difference between Biden second term and Trump again to vote or not.
Everyone just needs to remember (and remind everyone else at every opportunity) that not only is it a sin to vote for a Republican, it’s a sin to consent, through inaction or otherwise, to any Republican being in charge of running our country.
Third-party “protest” votes in down-ballot races do not qualify for absolution.
Theres yellings and exclamation points on X saying Mistrial as they’ve found some juror posted about how they were planning on taking trump down; I don’t know what it said exactly, but that was the gist of it.