Wisconsin's primary is Tuesday. I have no predictions

[pkbites]

@BigAppleBucky

the Milwaukee hate radio shows

:rolleyes:

[JKellyMap]

@pkbites

I have yet to run into one person or even one sign of anyone who is going to vote for Trump. I predict Cruz will Win.

Over here on the west side of the state, I personally know several Trump supporters, but only one person (AFAIK) that might be voting for Cruz. So, while anecdotes aren’t data, the primary might be a closer race than you think.

[Reginald_Hobbes]

@pkbites

@BigAppleBucky

the Milwaukee hate radio shows

:rolleyes:

This also deserves :rolleyes:

@BigAppleBucky

In recent years they’ve pretty much been running the state.

[BobLibDem]

@pkbites

:rolleyes:

I agree, she should have used Hate Radio. Seriously, all these guys do is preach hate. I challenge anyone to listen to Michael Savage for 15 minutes and not conclude this.

Call me crazy, but I think the Trump deflation is overrated. His supporters are very dedicated and will turn out in droves, 100% of his 35% may be better than 80% of Cruz’s 44%. I think he finishes closer than we’re expecting and wouldn’t be surprised if the Teflon Don actually wins in Wisconsin.

[Dangerosa]

@BobLibDem

I agree, she should have used Hate Radio. Seriously, all these guys do is preach hate. I challenge anyone to listen to Michael Savage for 15 minutes and not conclude this.

Call me crazy, but I think the Trump deflation is overrated. His supporters are very dedicated and will turn out in droves, 100% of his 35% may be better than 80% of Cruz’s 44%. I think he finishes closer than we’re expecting and wouldn’t be surprised if the Teflon Don actually wins in Wisconsin.

The issue is that the anti-Trump people are also getting pretty dedicated. It isn’t pro-Cruz people who will vote for Cruz, its anti-Trump people.

[Chronos]

Quoth RTFirefly:

And the chance that the rule can be changed over the opposition of both Trump and Cruz, who will likely go into the convention with about 3/4 of the delegates between them, is pretty minuscule.

Important distinction, here: They will go into the convention with 3/4 of the delegates pledged to vote for them, but that does not mean 3/4 of the delegates supporting them. In some states, the candidates choose their own slate of delegates, or they’re chosen from among the candidate’s supporters via the caucuses. Those delegates really will be fans of Trump and Cruz, and will take whatever actions are most in their candidates’ best interests. But in other states, the party chooses the delegates, and the primaries just determine how those delegates will vote. Such delegates are bound to honor their primaries in the first and maybe second vote for the nomination, but are not bound to vote in their favor on procedural issues, or even to vote for them in later rounds for the nomination. In those votes, they’ll presumably go whichever way the party insiders consider most favorable.

I don’t know exactly how many states have each system, or what the total delegate numbers work out to, but it’s certainly not as favorable for Trump and Cruz as it appears.

[That_Don_Guy]

@Chronos

I don’t know exactly how many states have each system

Here’s the quick list, based on what I saw the last time I was on The Green Papers:

Except when stated, each state gets three unpledged superdelegates (its two National Committee members, and the head of the state Republican Party)
Also, some states have additional rules (for example, some proportional states will give all of the corresponding delegates if someone gets a majority, and in Washington, if three candidates get at least 20% in a district, all three get 1 delegate)

April 5
Wisconsin - 18 Statewide WTA (including superdelegates); 24 District WTA

April 19
New York - 11 Statewide Proportional (20% minimum); 27 District 2 for first, 1 for second (20% minimum)

April 26
Pennsylvania - 14 Statewide WTA; 54 District (vote for the delegates themselves)
Maryland - 14 Statewide WTA (including superdelegates); 24 District WTA
Connecticut - 10 Statewide Proportional (20% minimum); 15 District WTA
Rhode Island - 10 Statewide Proportional (10% minimum); 6 District Proportional (10%) minimum
Delaware - 16 Statewide WTA (including superdelegates)

May 3
Indiana - 27 Statewide WTA; 27 District WTA

May 10
Nebraska - 33 Statewide WTA
West Virginia - 22 Statewide (vote for the delegates themselves); 9 District (vote for the delegates themselves)

May 17
Oregon - 25 Statewide Proportional

May 24
Washington - 11 Statewide Proportional (20% minimum); 30 District 2 for first, 1 for second (20% minimum)

June 7
California - 10 Statewide WTA; 159 District WTA
New Jersey - 57 Statewide WTA (including superdelegates)
South Dakota - 26 Statewide WTA
Montana - 27 Statewide WTA (including superdelegates)
New Mexico - 21 Statewide Proportional (15% minimum)

[CarnalK]

FYi, Chronos, I just read the other day that Florida requires delegates to vote as pledged for 3 rounds so I have no idea whether once or twice is the norm.

[digs]

The Wisconsin papers this morning were full of the Republican How-Down yesterday, and how Sarah Palin’s speech on behalf of Donald Trump was “met with stony silence”.

Tommy Thompson pumping up Kasich and Walker going to bat for Cruz were received much more warmly, so I’m not sure Trump can count on many delegates.

[pkbites]

@Reginald_Hobbes

This also deserves :rolleyes:

How, exactly, are radio show hosts “running the state”? Explain, please.

@BobLibDem

I agree, she should have used Hate Radio. Seriously, all these guys do is preach hate. I challenge anyone to listen to Michael Savage for 15 minutes and not conclude this.

What, exactly, is the “hate” they are preaching? Examples, please.

Are you going to tell me opposing a stupid train in downtown Milwaukee is hate speech?

[Johnny_Ace]

@digs

The Wisconsin papers this morning were full of the Republican How-Down yesterday, and how Sarah Palin’s speech on behalf of Donald Trump was “met with stony silence”.

Heeere little immigrant…I’ve got some teddy bears and soccer balls for ya…

Sarah Palin, killing political campaigns since 2008. (Not that she needs to, Trump is doing a fine job all by himself.)

[Reginald_Hobbes]

@pkbites

How, exactly, are radio show hosts “running the state”? Explain, please.

Sorry, my post may have been unclear.

I was agreeing with you that referring to the local talk shows as “hate radio” is stupid.

Then I pointed out that Bucky’s idea that these radio shows “run the state” was laughable.

[BigAppleBucky]

@Reginald_Hobbes

Sorry, my post may have been unclear.

I was agreeing with you that referring to the local talk shows as “hate radio” is stupid.

Then I pointed out that Bucky’s idea that these radio shows “run the state” was laughable.

One

For Mr. Trump, Wisconsin’s population distribution poses a particular disadvantage. He is highly unpopular in the Milwaukee area, where local conservative talk-radio hosts have been lamenting his rise for months….

In southeast Wisconsin, the local conservative talk-radio hosts have not followed the lead of the national guys,” said Charlie Sykes, who regularly criticizes Mr. Trump on his morning radio show in Milwaukee and is hosting Mr. Cruz at the Wednesday forum in Waukesha. “Trump has not had the talk-radio air cover here that he’s had elsewhere.

Two

The WOW county suburbs are Walker’s base.

Walker began playing more and more to the WOW base. Initially, this took the form of his frequent appearances on the local conservative talk-radio shows, which draw loyal audiences in the WOW counties, hold significant sway over Republican politicians in the state, and are characterized by a constant stream of anti-city of Milwaukee rhetoric, some of it racially charged. Even after being elected governor, Walker has kept his close ties to the talk-radio shows, which can be counted on to come to his defense in tough spots or have him on the air whenever he wants to get his message out.

Bolding mine

But he has won three times (in 2010, the attempted recall in June of 2012, and his re-election last fall) by getting gobsmacking vote tallies in the WOW counties, where some communities break for him at margins above 75 percent and at turnout levels that are among the very highest in the country.

Three

Sykes in the late morning, Belling in the late afternoon. Their styles are very different. Sykes is a thrice-married man-about-town with a smooth on-air manner and modish eyeglasses who has built himself into a multimedia brand, with a Sunday TV show on the NBC affiliate, books subsidized by conservative funders (his latest: A Nation of Moochers), and a subscription-based website, “Right Wisconsin” (which sometimes refers to Michelle Obama as “Mooch”). Belling is introverted and brooding—he zips in and out from the station’s suburban studio in his Jaguar, interacting with co-workers no more than necessary. His demeanor on air is more intense, with long foreboding pauses between his acid declamations. In one 2012 riff, he called a young black Milwaukee man who had died in police custody a “piece of garbage” and attacked “the pigs of mothers who are too lazy to put their children in a crib and roll over the top of them while sleeping on a futon on the floor.”

If that isn’t hate radio, there is no such thing.

and

Predictably, by 2010, the WOW counties were aflame with anti-Obama fervor, and Walker set his sights on the governor’s mansion. This climate should have favored his primary opponent, Mark Neumann, a highly conservative ex- congressman from southern Wisconsin. But so formidable was Walker’s talk-radio base that it altered the course of the race. Day after day, Sykes and Belling lauded Walker and savaged Neumann. Belling called Neumann a “liar” for criticizing Walker’s county budgets and declared, “No one I know thinks [Neumann] has a chance of winning.” The attacks were unfair but damaging, Neumann told me. Walker beat him by 18 points. In some precincts of the WOW counties, he won close to 75 percent of the vote, but lost to Neumann across much of the rest of the state. To Sykes, it was no coincidence that Walker’s support aligned so closely with the listening range of their stations. “If you look at that map, you see talk-radio land,” Sykes says.

And - they dominate the state of Wisconsin.

Over time, the two shows became known by a single name: “SykesBelling.” In the halls of the statehouse, Milwaukee City Hall, and area county governments, elected officials, particularly insufficiently conservative Republicans, lived in dread of denunciations by the hosts and the tsunami of angry calls from listeners that would follow. Sykes is credited with, among other accomplishments, having blocked public funding for needle-exchange programs and having helped drive into bankruptcy an urban mall after harping on security issues there.

[DSeid]

So returning to predictions about the results Tuesday in Wisconsin …
GOP side. 538 gives a 94% “polls plus” estimate of a Cruz win with the midpoint of their ranges being Cruz 44, Trump 32, and Kasich 22.

Given that WI is winner take most that could be a big day for the Stop Trumpers, and not a bad day for Cruz. If 538 is on target it would make an ugly contested convention increasingly probable.

Which from my POV is ideal.
Dem side. Their polls plus place it a toss-up currently 51% polls plus for Clinton with midpoint of ranges being 48.7 to 48.6. Their polls only would give Sanders a 70% chance of winning with the midpoint being Sanders +3.

538’s original numbers for being on the path (i.e. what overall 50/50 national popularity would look like in individual states given their demographics) had Sanders winning WI 56 to 44% and their path for him to win from here have him winning 58 to 42%.

My prediction, for the very little it is worth, is that Sanders will eke out a fairly narrow win, maybe 52 to 48%, splitting delegates 44 to 42 if not evenly 43 to 43, below what an actual path would have been in a 50/50 race and significantly below a catching up path looks like … and it will be played by Sanders and the talking heads as an extremely significant victory: “He’s now won 7 of last 8 races, this gives him momentum going into New York!”

Those who point out that he won by less than the sort of margin that would be consistent with the miracle come from behind he needs will be told “Yeah yeah, winning is losing.”

[Velocity]

Cruz will win, but it will be the equivalent of turning on the pumps in the stricken Titanic. It’ll simply delay the inevitable sinking.

[DSeid]

@Velocity

Cruz will win, but it will be the equivalent of turning on the pumps in the stricken Titanic. It’ll simply delay the inevitable sinking.

Yes. And the longer it takes to sink the better.

[DerekMichaels00]

current 538 polls-plus have Hillary 49% chance to win, Bernie 51% chance to win. The projected results have Hillary at 48.7%, Bernie at 48.6%. Basically, 538 is saying its tied. Sad thing is if Hillary wanted to demolish Sanders, she could’ve, but the DNC is probably making her let this continue because they think primary turnout matters for the GE and are scared of turning off the young voters and the left-wing.

Too bad they don’t realize that as the party moves to the left, they lose more moderate GE voters than gain base voters.

[asahi]

@DSeid

Given that WI is winner take most that could be a big day for the Stop Trumpers, and not a bad day for Cruz. If 538 is on target it would make an ugly contested convention increasingly probable.

Which from my POV is ideal.

Dem side. Their polls plus place it a toss-up currently 51% polls plus for Clinton with midpoint of ranges being 48.7 to 48.6. Their polls only would give Sanders a 70% chance of winning with the midpoint being Sanders +3.

538’s original numbers for being on the path (i.e. what overall 50/50 national popularity would look like in individual states given their demographics) had Sanders winning WI 56 to 44% and their path for him to win from here have him winning 58 to 42%.

My prediction, for the very little it is worth, is that Sanders will eke out a fairly narrow win, maybe 52 to 48%, splitting delegates 44 to 42 if not evenly 43 to 43, below what an actual path would have been in a 50/50 race and significantly below a catching up path looks like … and it will be played by Sanders and the talking heads as an extremely significant victory: “He’s now won 7 of last 8 races, this gives him momentum going into New York!”

Those who point out that he won by less than the sort of margin that would be consistent with the miracle come from behind he needs will be told “Yeah yeah, winning is losing.”

Cruz and Sanders will both have a big night. This is the beginning of the end of Trump, and it just could be the beginning of a nightmare for Clinton and the Democrats.

[Frank]

@asahi

… it just could be the beginning of a nightmare for Clinton and the Democrats.

Huh?

[Nema98]

@RTFirefly

QFT. (Actually 4 weeks between the AZ/UT primaries and the NY primary, with WI being the only notable political event in between, on the GOP side at least.)

Re Bucky’s comment about Trump’s hiatus: this has been one long political season - I’m sure all the candidates are a bit tired. You gotta take a break sometime, and this is about as good a time as you’re going to get.

Also he has had meetings with GOP and national security matters, which is important in educating him in regards to foreign issues. So it’s not like Donald Trump has been kicking back at home.