That Don Guy, that’s all useful information, but it mostly doesn’t answer the question I asked. That’s all about deciding which candidate each delegate is pledged for, but it does not say who the delegates themselves are.
Not to speak for asahi but the poster’s previously stated concern is that a) Cruz is a better candidate than Trump and b) Sanders will not do well enough to win superdelegates over, probably not enough to have a majority of pledged delegates, but well enough that his supporters will still feel that the supers should give it to him and that their failure to do so will lead to a fracture on the D side.
I think.
That story might shed some light on that question. Sounds like there are going to be a lot of delegates that are bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot (and in some cases some subsequent ballots), but won’t actually be Trump loyalists. Every state has its own rules, so it’s hard to get a good read on just how this will play out. And just because they are bound to Trump in the roll call vote, that doesn’t mean that they have to vote his way on procedural issues.
That convention is looking like it’s going to be appointment television for political junkies.
Predictwise has Sanders and Cruz both at 85% to win.
I’d expect Cruz to win by 5-10% over Trump, but that’s not based on much of anything except what I read. I don’t have my finger on the pulse of what motivates a person to vote for either of these two men, not just because I don’t like either of them but because the world of the Republican Party just isn’t my world.
On the Dem side, I think Sanders will win by 10-15 points. The demographics of the state are favorable to his campaign (not very many minorities, Democrats in the state are generally very traditionally “progressive,” a bunch of college students), and the open primary will help him a lot. My impression is also that he is putting a lot of energy into this race, which makes sense. WI is one of the last truly open primaries remaining, and the next batch of medium-to-large states is going to be much more difficult for him demographically. To continue to argue that he has a real shot, he has to do very well here, and I believe he knows it.
Some Sanders supporters have complained about the presence of early voting in a few of the states he’s lost, notably Arizona. WI does have early voting, but I haven’t seen any real evidence that early voting favors Clinton, so I suspect it won’t matter. Even if it does matter, it looks like there have been reports of lots of problems in early voting–see http://www.thenation.com/article/wisconsin-needs-to-extend-hours-for-early-voting-and-obtaining-voter-ids/ for example–so any benefit that might accrue to Clinton from early voters might well be wiped out.
So interesting … Emerson and ARG, rated C+ and C- respectively by 538, both came out with WI polls today.
Emerson is in with the pack, just a little bit lower than some on Cruz and high end on Sanders: Cruz +5 and Sanders +8. Believable for MOEs with the other polling results.
ARG is a bit of an outlier: Trump +10 and Clinton +1.
Obviously ARG is doing something different methodologically than the other polling houses. Odds are the outlier is off and is best tossed out. But what difference in methods results in such a divergence?
And kudos for them for reporting outlier results when they get them.
I can’t remember when I first started regarding ARG’s polling with skepticism, but it’s gotten to the point where I automatically disregard them, unless they’re the only poll of a given race. Emerson’s no great shakes - they’ve earned their C+ honestly - but I’d give ARG more of a D-.
The joke would certainly be on me if they got this one right, while everyone else got it wrong.
Everyone is putting a lot of energy into this race, for the simple reason that they don’t have anywhere else to put it right now.
Just FYI, Clinton is actually spending a pretty fair chunk of time here in New York. Not to say she isn’t taking WI seriously, because I think she is, but in comparison Sanders seems to be more focused on Wisconsin right now.
There was a storyabout “heavy” early voting in Milwaukee, but it was only 8,000 votes.
“immoral fairyland of anarchy and excessive consumption of dairy products and alcohol”. What an awesome description of my home state. 
I think I just put a trip to Wisconsin on my bucket list!
I feel like Trump might come out ahead tonight. This Cruz and the DC Madam bit, especially after the Enquirer story, might be the coup de grace for Theodore Cruz. I mean Rafael.
[quote=“BigAppleBucky, post:54, topic:750566”]
[/QUOTE]Or, if you prefer: Cheese & Beer & Snow - YouTube
“Cheese and beer and snow”
I would be surprised, but only a little.
I think Cruz will take 5 or 6 of the CDs and the overall leaving two or three CDs for Trump.
Kasich, with former governor Tommy Thompson’s endorsement, might surprise a bit, but I doubt he’ll win any delegates.
Not trying to sway you, but I had a typical Wisconsin day on Sunday… started at a local tavern where they make their Bloody Marys with beer, and of course there was a bratwurst and a skewer of deep-fried cheese curds sticking out of the top.
And of course we had a dusting of snow the night before, but then it surprised everyone by getting up to 70º for an afternoon Bernie rally. Then back down to the 20s overnight…
A State of Contrasts, I guess.
And sausages! They forgot the sausages! (I may be a Chicagoan by birth, but I am a Wisconsonian at heart. My favorite state.)
Toss in some perogies and sour cream, and I’m there!