From here:
When questioned on how that would happen, answers talked about the pandemic, to NATO/Putin/Ukraine/fuel, and inflation.
But a conviction cannot change past events, like the invasion, obviously. Nor can I see how said conviction would change anything about Ukraine, fuel prices, or inflation going forward. Global economics are simply not tied to Mr. Trump’s legal status.
Would a conviction cause an economic boom? And if so, how?
The idea is that if Trump is convicted, he will no longer be able to lead his followers, will fall out of favor with his followers, or will disappear from the landscape and never be heard from again. As a direct result, Americans will be so happy they will dramatically increase their investing and spending causing the stock market and the economy to boom in exuberance. I think this is at best wishful thinking, and at worst slightly delusional.
Pretty much my thoughts, but if the other side has a legitimate counterargument, I would consider it.
Complete nonsense. Really. If there were any macroeconomic reprecussions it would be both very minor in scale and extremely short term, say, a slight burst of spending at both steak restaurants (in celebration) and gun shops (in retaliation).
All in all, a wash at best and no long-term macro impact.
One might make the case that the reputational impact will bolster America’s standing in the world economic community, but I am not going to make that argument.
No. Even Presidents have fairly little genuine control over the economy. How would Trump’s conviction stimulate it? Would it increase employment? Lead to more investment and infrastructure? Change the purchasing power of the average family? Stop inflation? Modify business taxes or regulatory policy? No.
What they said. I don’t see the series of steps that lead from Trump conviction to signigicant economic stimulus and pumping up the markets…
Sure I’d feel pleased at justice been made upon seeing him crushed, driven before his enemies, and hear the lamentations of Ivanka, but I don’t see how that maps to an economic driver. The market is the same, the consumers are the same, and the people responsible for daft socioeconomic policies will still be where they are today.
Nah, it probably would have no effect whatsoever.
But that certainly isn’t a reason not to pursue a conviction if he truly did handle NDI in the manner it appears he did.
And the “bonus” effect is political, not economic, in that perhaps it will break some of the fever that is currently gripping the GOP and we can get back to having two reasonably sane parties in the US.
I am skeptical in the extreme. On the other hand, I think it would be wonderful if the notion that a successful prosecution of Trump would lead to an economic boom became the accepted wisdom in the corridors of power.
I think it’s unlikely, but I also think we should try it and see.
Agreed. It might also reverse climate change and end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Worth a shot!
There would probably be some positive economic effects (markets hate turmoil, and you can find Cheato’s picture in the dictionary next to the definition of that term), but not to the extent it could really be called a “boom”.
Yeah, I’m not seeing a causal link between a Trump conviction and an economic boom. It might marginally increase confidence in the stability of the US markets, but any direct consequence would be so trivial and diffuse that it’d be extremely hard to quantify if it existed at all.
Based on past performance, removal of Trump from the Presidential gene pool might actually cause an economic decline, at least as far as the stock market is concerned. The Trump presidency was good for investors.*
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 56% during the Trump presidency, according to LPL. This represents an annualized gain of 11.8%, which is the best performance for any Republican president since Calvin Coolidge during the roaring 1920’s.”
*not so good for us, since we moved some funds out of stocks into safer investments on the expectation that Trump would do inane things to cause a market crash.
No, it would not.
I suppose one could argue that if enough people felt that the economic outlook was bad because of all the political uncertainty introducted by Trumpism, then that could nudge sentiment in a positive direction. But:
Rich people do not care about social turmoil or bad governance, they only care about avoiding taxes, ignoring regulations, and flouting the law. When these factors favor them, they invest more. When those factors threaten them, they actively invest in destabilizing government and society. So no, criminal accountability for rich people would not create an economic boom at all, and might work in the opposite direction.
Note that a lack of economic booms and busts really isn’t a bad thing. The boom/bust cycle largely benefits, and is caused by, the capital-owning class, who can profit off the upswing and hedge against downturns. Workers cannot make the same adjustments, so they get crushed.
A lot of people would be out celebrating, buying Champaign and partying, others out buying ammo and prepper shit.
A Win-Win!
If the whole MAGA thing were to die, and the US were to go back to having two somewhat grown-up political parties, that would lead to something of an economic boost, I would think. It would restore a degree of confidence, internally and externally.
(And yes, I’m only talking about the level of maturity circa Obama’s term – with a Republican party only occasionally putting on their big boy pants)
I don’t see this as necessarily following from Trump being convicted though, and even if it were coupled, it wouldn’t happen overnight.
Overall I agree that that prediction is quite a stretch.
If only locking him up would staunch the endless state and federal litigation he and his “empire” are facing - our public legal system could focus on some other crimes for a while. How much is prosecuting TFG and his company costing the country? [I know, it’s just a drop in the bucket, but I am trying to find some sort of economic upside here.]