Assuming Rudy Giuliani runs in 2012 would most New Yorkers who voted him for mayor vote for him for President and thus allow Giuliani to carry NYC and New York State?
Just to point out that over half of “New Yorkers” live in New York State outside New York City. My impression is that by and large they are not strong Giuliani supporters.
I’m aware you were asking about NYC for the most part, but note that this may szkew your results.
Giuliani has already run for President, and didn’t get to the point where New York votes would have mattered.
Assuming that he received the Republican nomination, let’s also assume that he gets the 615,000 votes he gained in his last mayoral election. Let’s also assume that the 479,000 who voted against him repeat that vote. A plurality of 136,000 from the city is not enough to automatically carry the state. Believe it or not, there are a lot of people who live in New York who do not live in New York City.
Well Upstate’s more conservative so if Giuiliani’s GOP, then they’ll probably vote for him.
NYC has around eight million souls but only 1.1 million voted? Plus please see my upstate comment. 
Onetime New Yorker here. Lived in the city 1996-2002, then up in the Hudson Valley into 2007. Will likely return to the Hudson Valley at some point (I have property there).
I would NOT vote for Giuliani. And I loved him as Mayor. I visited the city often before he was elected (1990-1994), and it was a pit. When I moved there in 1996, there was a world of difference. Much better quality of life. Then of course, on 9/11, he was the only public official in the nation that seemed to be talking to us in a straightforward and human way. I would have gladly had him for a third term.
But … two things: One, governing NYC is far different from governing the USA. Specifically, you can (and sort of need to be) a bit of a petty tyrant to be a successful mayor of NYC. As we can see from recent presidential successes and failures, though, a president of the USA needs to be able to forge great compromises with people who disagree with him, and have just as much power as he does (i.e., the congress). I don’t think that Rudy has the personality to be a successful president.
Two: I’ve really despised how Rudy’s turned into a Fox News Channel talking-points-talking-head zombie since he got out of office. Fear, horror, question nothing, keep to the party line, and repeat the words “nine-eleven” every 15 seconds. Blech.
Yes. Just because you would like to believe something is true does not make it true. You’re not the Red Queen.
He ran the worst campaign in 2008, going from frontrunner to roadkill before you could say New Hampshire. He had his chance, he shot his wad. If all you had to do to be elected president was repeat 9/11 like a mantra, he’d have won. He has no relevance whatsoever in any future presidential run and even he may have that much figured out by now.
Turnout for municipal elections is typically much lower than for Presidential elections.
Guiliani would not get as many votes as a Presidential candidate as he did as a mayoral candidate, anyway, for two obvious reasons:
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He is the GOP candidate. It is clearly obvious that residents of the City of New York prefer Democratic Presidents, but show a willingness to vote for anyone for Mayor, a dichotomy that is found in many cities. When voting locally, people often value personality or competence or other factors over party affiliation, much more so than they do in national elections.
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Guiliani is now far less appealing a candidate than he once was, anyway. He simply did not seem impressive as a Presidential candidate; frankly, he looked and sounded way out of his league.
Giuliani couldn’t even win a senate seat against Hillary. He dropped out for “health reasons” after realized he was gonna get his ass handed to him. Even though America may have fallen in love with him after 9/11, NY’ers were tired of him. Whether it be his marital problems, the issues with police brutality, or just his dictatorial nature.
One indication of his diminished stature was his failed attempt to extend his second term by 3 months to deal with the 9/11 fallout. Ultimately, people painted this as a power grab. Contrast that with Mayor Bloomberg’s successful bid to change the term limits to allow him to get a 3rd term due to the financial crisis. People just didn’t like Giuliani by the end of his term, which is why he failed where Bloomberg succeeded.
He couldn’t get elected dogcatcher in NYC now.
To be fair he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, so it’s not like it was some vague “health reason.” That said I have no doubt that other factors, including the way the campaign was going, weighed heavily in his decision to withdraw.
Bloomberg would have a far better chance of a presidential run in the current climate and I get the impression he’s happy running New York.
Giuliani has had his day. Even if he had the juice for another run he’s got issues that hamper his ability to run - three marriages, estranged children, siting the Office of Emergency Management in the biggest target in NYC… The further he gets from 9/11 the less appeal he has.
He has way too much baggage.
http://www.hesnoaltarboy.com/topics/rudy-giuliani-scandals.shtml
Giuliani made some changes in NYC that had to be made. His predecessor, David Dinkins was totally useless as a mayor. Guys like Ed Koch were just loud-mouthed do-nothings that sold the city to whoever would bid the highest.
Giuliani looked like a savior for doing some practical things and his star rose after 9/11. Then, the truth started to come out. He was a creep with a lot of personal baggage. He was the worst example of “family values”. He shamelessly cheated and his kids didn’t want anything to do with him. He surrounded himself and promoted slime-bags like Bernie Kerrick. BK has to be the worst example of anyone that should be part of public service. Don’t say that Rudy didn’t know this guy was scum. They were attached at the hip.
Giuliani is now just a Fox talking head. Listen to him. He provides no insight, he just yaps some “conservative” BS. He sold himself out and I really don’t understand why. It is sad that he turned out to be one of the biggest hypocrites we’ve seen because he had so much promise.
Giuliani has to be one of the biggest disappointment ever to step on the national stage. New Yorkers wanted to love him but now they want nothing to do with him. He is soooooo yesterday that he really isn’t even on the radar screen.
Absolutely not, and I don’t think he’s going to run in 2012 because he absolutely bombed in 2008. What on earth makes you think New York City (or the state) could possibly go Republican in 2012? Obama beat McCain 62-37 and it wasn’t just because Obama won in New York City. He also won counties around Albany, Rochester, Buffalo, and elsewhere. And why do you think he’ll be running again? I don’t think he’ll want to embarrass himself.
He would not carry the city, which has elected some moderate Republican mayors but does not want to see a Republican become president or hold statewide office. Funny thing about Giuliani in 2008: the more he campaigned in any given state, the worse he did. He had a good reputation in a lot of places other than New York - where people largely got tired of him a long time ago - but when people saw him up close, they found they didn’t like him at all. He’s smug and unpleasant and does a poor job connecting with people. Nationally, he’s too much of a moderate to get traction in a lot of conservative enclaves, but his reputation and his personality are more than enough to keep liberals from voting for him. He can’t appeal to religious right voters because he’s not one of them and he’s not a tax cutting, antigovernment conservative, so he struggles with that group, too. As Mike Bloomberg also understands by now, it’s a hard thing for a local New York figure to get elected nationally.
There hasn’t been a president from NYC since Teddy Roosevelt, has there? And TR made a conscious effort to portray himself as a frontiersman, a “man of the West”.
But wait, you guys are failing to point out, he was Mayor of NYC when 9/11 happened.
I think he should have brought that up in his Presidential campaign, I think it might’ve helped him.
Aaaaanyway, as to the actual topic, I think toadspittle has it: no matter what you think of how well he did as Mayor, he turned into a bit of a Fox News caricature during his presidential run.
Too bad too, it’d be interesting to have the first openly cross-dressing president.
Speaking as a more-or-less lifelong New Yorker, your whole post was spot-on, and this really sums it up for me.
It’s an interesting point, but I’m not sure how true it is. He gets credit for a lot of good things that happened in the city during the '90s, and you would think that that, September 11th, and the fact that the was the Republican mayor of NYC would have given him a shot in the primaries. But I think the “America’s Mayor” crap papered over the fact that most of the city had been tired of him for a couple of years. He alienated a lot of people with the way he dumped his wife, with the Amadou Diallo shooting and Abner Louima assault (and there were other police abuses that he’s held responsible for), and his personality in general.