Nope, Hal didn’t go into Faithfool’s room.
**Faithfool’s ** briefcase was delivered to **Hal’**s room. That probably doesn’t help.
Not much to add at the moment. I’ve made my case and vote. No one has presented anything to dissuade me.
I’m still wondering if we’ve figured out the correct clue and not just a self reference.
What, exactly, is your definition of taking a “real stand,” zuma? I’m not sure what you want from me. My vote for Diomedes did not come out of the blue. I did not all of a sudden vote Diomedes, as your own voting timeline shows - I voted for him two Days in a row. If voting for someone twice in a row is being wishy-washy and not taking a stand, then I guess we’re just going to have to disagree. (I know he didn’t turn out to be scum, but that’s beside the point here - Hal voted for him as well and both of them turned out Town, so that’s neither here nor there.) Besides, you’ve ignored all my posts defending myself and just keep beating me over the head with the same accusations over and over again.
I don’t understand Pleonast’s case against HazelNutCoffee. I see the math, and I like math, but something is off to me. My main point of contention is the analysis doesn’t take into account the fact that of the 9 players remaining, 3 are scum and 6 are Town. (i.e., given any three players, the probability is that one of them is scum.) For example, he invokes the MHaye vote and says “If we assume that they put their votes in the same pattern as us, there’d be 3 scum voting for MHaye and 2 not. So, I’ll guess:” Well, why guess? Why not simply acknowledge that 1/3 of the remaining players are scum? Arbitrarily assigning 3 scum to group A and 2 scum to group B is just that… arbitrary. Why not arbitrarily assign a 4:1 split, or a 2:3 split?
Essentially, the system punishes players for being wrong and rewards players for being right, and the only players who can be reliably right are scum.
Remember, in storyteller’s death post, it was mentioned that storyteller was killed by a vicious trained rabbit. So that bit is just telling us that Hal was killed by the same person who killed story.
I take each Day’s vote and make my best estimate as to how I think the Scum would’ve distributed themselves. Yes, it’s a guess, but it’s not arbitrary. There are scraps of information there. I may be wrong about any given Day, but over time patterns can emerge.
And I think the pattern clearly shows Hazel has been voting more like a Scum than anyone else. If you think my inferences are wrong, please do your own analysis. I’m not claiming my approach is great, but it’s what I saw as useful. I’d like to see several players take independent approaches to analyzing the game. That way, we can get past tunnel vision and scummy manipulation.
Another way to put my point on Pleonast’s analysis is that he assigns whole numbers to his guesses without really needing to. They are guesses that lead to probabilities. There is no reason we need to select 3:2 over 2:3 when we can just as easily assume 2.5:2.5 or anything inbetween. Now obviously there can’t really be 2.5 scum votes in one group, but the idea that 3:2 is more right than 2:3 or 2.5:2.5 strikes me as mathematically sloppy.
The way I would look at Pleonast’s analysis approach…
Day 1:
By Pleonast’s own analysis method all players should have probability 1/3 since “If we assume that they put their votes in the same pattern as us” (all players get 1/3 so we ignore this statistic)
Day 2: OAOW considered a given
Day 3:
Pleonast again assumes scum split themselves for/against brewha, that means another 1/3 probability. (all players get 1/3 so we ignore this statistic)
Day 4:
Pleonast says that scum avoided Freudian Slit’s bandwagon, which is reasonable from the perspective that scum don’t want Freudian Slit dead; but for self-preservation reasons, scum (who know that Freudian Slit is scum) would also like to join the bandwagon. Also, we don’t know whether brewha is town or scum, so scum could have been faced with a choice between scummy brewha and scummy Freudian Slit and chose Freudian Slit. Based on the constant suspicion of brewha, such a strategy doesn’t look optimal for scum, but if Freudian Slit was killer #2, then scum might have preferred a Freudian Slit lynch over a brewha lynch.
Day 5: If HazelNutCoffee is town then scum wouldn’t care who they voted for (Diomedes v. HNC). Pleonast’s numbers are predicated on the assumption that HNC is scum, which he then uses to conclude that HNC is scum.
I’ll try and make my own case for someone tomorrow.
sach, you’re forgetting that you need to decide the distribution based on all players living at the time of the vote, and then subtract out the players we now know the alignments of.
Okay. I understand what you are trying to do with Day 1 and Day 3. I still have reservations though.
What are your thoughts on your assumptions for Days 4 and 5? I think your reasoning assumes brewha is Town and HazelNutCoffee is scum, which I’m not willing to do at this time.
I’ll try and see if there is anything else that would make me inclined to vote for HazelNutCoffee. Or someone else.
I understand what he’s doing, and I more or less agree with his assumptions, with a few reservations. Day 1 is especially interesting to me. I doubt there is more than 1 remaining scum in the Mhaye voters. Do you really think it’s likely that either 4 or 5 of the 5 scum all piled on MHaye day 1? I’ve not seen anything like that in any of the games I’ve played. And it goes against scum nature to make such a play on day 1. Townies usually fuck up day 1 on their own quite nicely, with little assistance.
Also, Day 5 is worth reviewing. Again. And again..
Consider the facts:
With a mere 4 hours to go day 5, Hazel and brewha are tied with 3 votes a piece. Dio’s first vote came just 4 hours from deadline! I ask you, how likely is it that Hazel and brewha are both town? Scum would have just came in and said “well, we’re running out of time, so I’ll vote the scummier of the two”. Or maybe one would have switched a vote around. The final hours action makes llittle to no sense if they are both town. It’s inexplicable, if they are both town.
In fact, day 5 reads like they’re both scum. Hazel is tied with brewha with 3 votes a piece and just 4 hours to go, and she puts a first vote on diomedes? If I were in the situation, I’d put my vote on brewha using the “I know I’m not scum, so I’ll vote for the other guy” reasoning.
I plan to look at day 5 again and again, because the diomedes vote with just 4 hours to go, with two viable candidates accumulating votes before diomedes even aquires vote 1 just looks incredibly suspect to me.
I’m all but convinced they cannot both be town based on the complete turnaround in the final hours. It would have been too easy for scum to make sure one of them died, and they had the perfectly defendable “running out of time” excuse to do it!
I also want to explore the liklihood that they’re both scum (I’ve defended brewha up til now, but yesterDay has me re-thinking that position), but if my “they’re not both town” theory is correct, I’m more likely to vote for HazelNutCoffee at this time.
Sach, although I replied to you, that post was primarily aimed at everyone as a whole. And yes I acknowlege that you understand the day 1 analysis.
One thing about HNC has been bothering me. My only real reason to trust her is that she forgot about the game. I thought it was unlikely for someone with a scum role to just forget. But, after I made that statement, she actually corrected me. She said something along the lines of ‘I simply forgot - don’t read into it’. (I’ll go back and find the actual quote). It sounded an aweful lot to me that she was trying to correct my reasoning. If she were indeed town, why would she make that statement? Of course I can’t see a reason she would make that statemeant if she were scum either.
And if we don’t want to change the subject from pleo’s vote analysis and have something to talk about today (for those of us actually talking), what do you think of my theory that based on the day 5 votes, HNC and brewha are likely not both town?
I could be wrong, and intend to break down the timeline a bit more, with a post coming tomorrow to examine the timeline, but I’d honestly like to hear any thoughts on this theory. The final 12 hours of day 5 are only a couple pages back. It just looks awfully convenient that Diomedes came out of nowhere Day 5. I think one or both of HNC and brewha was scum, and the lynching of Diomedes saved someone.
Finally!
I don’t think I’m assuming Hazel is scum in my approach. My estimation of the scum distribution boils down to: more scum vote for Town than others. We know Dio was Town, so I estimate that more of the remaining scum voted for him than not.
Remember, I’m not basing my vote on the analysis of any one Day, but the pattern that emerged over multiple Days.
I’d rather we not spend too much time arguing over my approach. It’s better if everyone explains their own approach, and then we can hash out what we have.
I agree that my analysis is biased towards assuming brewha is Town. I thought he was. It doesn’t seem likely that we’d be on the correct track three Days in a row. But the way the Day 3 lynch was not finalized is suspicious. And the Day 5 vote progression is creepy. Why did Dio get lynched, if not because the top two vote-getters were scum?
If Brewha is scum and Hazel is scum, it makes sense for Hazel to try to implicate a third party. However, there were other people who already had a vote on them (like me), so I find it odd that she would find an entirely new target. I believe she is a town member who didn’t like the case against Brewha and legitimately thought Dio was scummy. My working theory would be that Rysto (scum) jumped on this to add a second vote to Dio to try to (and succeed) in making it a choice between two town members saving fellow scum Brewha…
Anyway, Here is the final 12 hours of Day 5, and maybe we can discuss this and provide some theories. All times PST, screw the east coast.
11:30 p.m. (12 hours to deadline)
faithfool (3): Hawkeye, sachertorote, zuma
Hazel (2): Pleonast, Diomedes
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
01:07 a.m. (10:23 to deadline)
zuma unvotes faithfool, votes Hazel
Reason: torn between 2, uses sicilian trait/faithfool newbie as tie-breaker
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
faithfool (2): Hawkeye, sachertorote
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
06:04 a.m. (7:26 to deadline)
Hawkeye unvotes faithfool, votes Brewha
Reason: “Running out of time” “That leaves us with 2 candidates with 3 votes and no one else with more then 1. So can everyone else pick one of those two options.”
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
07:24 a.m. (4:06 to deadline)
Hazel votes Diomedes
Reason: Doesn’t believe brewha is scum, Pleonast, Diomedes never responded to arguments, Diomedes voted Hazel without explanation, will swing vote to avoid no-lynch.
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
Diomedes (1): Hazel
08:14 a.m. (3:26 to deadline)
Rysto votes Diomedes
Reason: “What the hell, let’s try to get this bandwagon rolling. I’m standing by for a last-minute switch when it becomes necessary.”
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
08:53 AM (02:37 to deadline)
HockeyMonkey unvotes brewha, votes Hazel
Reason: “sigh”
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (2): faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
09:09 a.m. (2:21 to deadline)
Hawkeye [unvotes brewha, votes diomedes
Reason: “Brewha doesn’t seem to be getting much support, so I’ll again switch to the most popular candidate that isn’t Hazel. I think Hazel is town, and I can go either way on Dio. Consider this more a not Hazel vote then anything else.”
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (3): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
10:00 a.m. (1:30 to deadline)
Hal Briston unvotes Hawkeye, votes Diomedes
Reason: “Arright…of our main contenders, Diomedes tops my suspicion list.”
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (4): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
10:11 a.m. (1:29 to deadline)
sachertorte [url=http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406527&postcount=1265]votes Diomedes](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406268&postcount=1260)
Reason: Would vote brewha/faithfool, but that doesn’nt seem useful. “I had a bit of suspicion of Diomedes early in the game (minor stuff). I didn’t pursue it further at the time since the whole brewha thing kind of took my focus. HazelNutCoffee isn’t on my radar, which in and of itself is not a good thing. But if I were to vote for someone for under-the-radar reasons, it would be for Rysto. Also, I don’t think the dossier item is a good reason for voting for HazelNutCoffee (as I’ve stated before for myself and for Hockey Monkey, and I’ll include zuma and HNC on that list now too). I’ll try and re-read Diomedes and HazelNutCoffee to make a better informed decision”
Diomedes (5): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston, sachertorte
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (1): faithfool
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
God dammit. I accidentally hit submit instead of preview. Sorry. Fucking no-edit rule. Ignore that one, read the next one
I’m listing full post counts. Someone please double check. Deltas are in Sienna
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
brewha (1) : Hockey Monkey
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
brewha (1) : Hockey Monkey
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (2) : Hawkeyeop, zuma
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (2) : Pleonast, Diomedes
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (2) : Hawkeyeop, zuma
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (2) : Pleonast, Diomedes
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (3) : Hawkeyeop, zuma, sachertorte
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (2) : Hawkeyeop, sachertorte
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (3) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (3) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (1) : HazelNutCoffee
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (3) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (2) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (2) : faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (2) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (1) : faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (3) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (1) : faithfool
Hawkeyeop (0)
Diomedes (4) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop, Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (0)
brewha (1) : faithfool
Diomedes (5) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop, Hal Briston, sachertorte
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (0)
brewha (1) : faithfool
Diomedes (6) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop, Hal Briston, sachertorte, brewha
Anyway, Here is the final 12 hours of Day 5, and maybe we can discuss this and provide some theories. All times PST, screw the east coast.
If I screwed this up in any way please point it out to me. If you believe I misrepresented your reasons (most of them are just quotes, altho a couple had fairly long reason posts which I hope I condensed fairly), let me know as well.
11:30 p.m. (12 hours to deadline)
faithfool (3): Hawkeye, sachertorote, zuma
Hazel (2): Pleonast, Diomedes
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
01:07 a.m. (10:23 to deadline)
zuma unvotes faithfool, votes Hazel
Reason: torn between 2, uses sicilian trait/faithfool newbie as tie-breaker
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
faithfool (2): Hawkeye, sachertorote
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
06:04 a.m. (7:26 to deadline)
Hawkeye unvotes faithfool, votes Brewha
Reason: “Running out of time” “That leaves us with 2 candidates with 3 votes and no one else with more then 1. So can everyone else pick one of those two options.”
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
07:24 a.m. (4:06 to deadline)
Hazel votes Diomedes
Reason: Tempted to vote Pleonast based on arbitrary numbers, tempted to vote brewha just to get him out of the way. Doesn’t believe brewha is scum, Pleonast, Diomedes never responded to arguments, Diomedes voted Hazel without explanation, will swing vote to avoid no-lynch.
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
Diomedes (1): Hazel
08:14 a.m. (3:26 to deadline)
Rysto votes Diomedes
Reason: “What the hell, let’s try to get this bandwagon rolling. I’m standing by for a last-minute switch when it becomes necessary.”
Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
08:53 AM (02:37 to deadline)
HockeyMonkey unvotes brewha, votes Hazel
Reason: “sigh”
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (2): faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
09:09 a.m. (2:21 to deadline)
Hawkeye unvotes brewha, votes diomedes
Reason: “Brewha doesn’t seem to be getting much support, so I’ll again switch to the most popular candidate that isn’t Hazel. I think Hazel is town, and I can go either way on Dio. Consider this more a not Hazel vote then anything else.”
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (3): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
10:00 a.m. (1:30 to deadline)
Hal Briston unvotes Hawkeye, votes Diomedes
Reason: “Arright…of our main contenders, Diomedes tops my suspicion list.”
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (4): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
10:11 a.m. (1:29 to deadline)
sachertorte votes Diomedes
Reason: Would vote brewha/faithfool, but that doesn’nt seem useful. “I had a bit of suspicion of Diomedes early in the game (minor stuff). I didn’t pursue it further at the time since the whole brewha thing kind of took my focus. HazelNutCoffee isn’t on my radar, which in and of itself is not a good thing. But if I were to vote for someone for under-the-radar reasons, it would be for Rysto. Also, I don’t think the dossier item is a good reason for voting for HazelNutCoffee (as I’ve stated before for myself and for Hockey Monkey, and I’ll include zuma and HNC on that list now too). I’ll try and re-read Diomedes and HazelNutCoffee to make a better informed decision”
Diomedes (5): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston, sachertorte
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (1): faithfool
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
11:09 a.m. (0:21 to deadline)
brewha unvotes Hockey, votes Diomedes
Reason: “I don’t find Dio particularly scummy, but I do think that Hockey Monkey and Pleonast are. I am voting purely based on my assumption that the person they are voting for is not scum. I don’t like this vote and I know that if Dio comes up town I will be labeled the scum ‘hammer’. But, at least a lynch will tell us why Dio has voted the way he has - that info is better the the nothing we would gain from a no lynch.”
Diomedes (6): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston, sachertorte, brewha
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (1): faithfool