I forgot the second half of that. I think that zuma has offered a very good analysis of why brewha is unlikely to be scum. Given that, Hazel’s vote for Dio makes very little sense if she’s scum. A vote for brewha to save herself from a lynch is easy to defend. Trying to start a new bandwagon with mere hours to go is a lot harder to understand from scum. A townie, on the other hand, would want to vote for someone who they felt was scummy. This is a team game, after all, and killing off someone who you to believe to be on your team is not the path to success.
So, based on Day 5, I believe that Hazel could only be scum if brewha were scum, and I just don’t believe that brewha is scum.
Actually, this “one or the other must be scum” is a very good argument for the scum. Lynch one, discover that they aren’t scum, say “Then it must have been the other one”, lynch the other, bingo, game over. I am not at all happy to see that the leading candidates are brewha and Hazel.
Can you also answer my question above on why Hazel would vote Dio instead of someone who already had votes? If it is easier to “vote for a front runner” why would Hazel pick an entirely new target?
I would bet that Hazel’s vote was intended to be a throw away. She was voting for someone who she thought wouldn’t get lynched. If she voted for me, and I got lynched, she knew that it would implicate her as scum when I turned up as town. If she votes for someone without votes, and someone else gets lynched, she is free of added suspicion.
Rysto, If, yesterday, unknowns dio, HNC, and brewha were all town, we’ve already lost. The late Dio votes are the best I have to go with. I think the assumption should be warrented, otherwise we’re dead either way.
I continue to draw conclusions based on vote patterns, the very strange dio lynch and my maybe flawed conclusion that brewha as scum makes no sense, well, should I stop this bandwagon rolling?
That’s a dangerous way of thinking. “We can’t win if this is true, therefore it can’t be true”? I’ve seen that one backfire massively in the past(see: “if storyteller is scum we’ve lost, so I trust storyteller” from Mafia 2).
Examine your assumption. I’ve yet to hear a reasonable explanation for how brewha could be town, Hazel could be scum and Hazel not vote for brewha. I don’t believe brewha’s explanation that the scum want him alive. I agree that the scum have been milking the brewha bandwagon for all that it’s worth to distract the town, but for the scum, better a dead Townie than a dead scum.
Now, perhaps Hazel makes sense as scum if the other scum were already on the brewha bandwagon. Who had voted for brewha at the time? Hawkeyeop, Hockey Monkey and faithfool. Who else had votes against them? Hawkeyeop, Hockey Money and faithfool.
I think that Hazel knew that there wasn’t much support for a faithfool lynch and didn’t want to stick her neck out. I also think that she didn’t dare risk starting a bandwagon against her fellow scum. So she chose Dio, who storyteller was riding all game long and who I had just FOS’ed. A nice, safe choice. And when that turned into a bandwagon that got Dio lynched, all the better. One more townie down.
I can get behind this bandwagon now. Unvote Hawkeyeop Vote HazelNutCoffee
NETA: It must be noted that Hazel had been voicing suspicions of Dio for some time at this point. I don’t want to give the impression that she completely chose his name out of the blue.
Some more things. Remember the non-lynch of brewha on Day 3? The day that Hazel didn’t vote? Freudian Slit, Hockey Monkey and Hawkeyeop were all on the brewha bandwagon. Now, if I were scum in Hazel’s position, I’m stuck. If I drop the hammer on brewha, then this will be the third consecutive day that 4 scum have voted the same way(one of those votes was OAOW’s self-hammer). If I vote somewhere else, it looks extremely fishy. Hazel was stuck between a rock and a hard place, and I’m wondering if she didn’t vote because she figured it was the least suspicious thing she could do.
Since then, it looks as though the scum have made a concerted effort to not vote together. Hazel, Hockey and Hawkeyeop all voted different ways on Day 4, and while Hawkeyeop followed Hazel onto the Dio bandwagon, Hockey actually voted for Hazel.
Holy crap. I’m really sorry - something unexpected happened yesterday afternoon that tied me up, and then I was out of the house for the evening - and today I’ve been cleaning madly getting ready for visiting Dopers.
I was actually thinking about my vote in the shower today, and Rysto’s vote for Diomedes that immediately follwed mine came to mind. My initial thought was that it seemed really scummy, but if Rysto is scum he’d know both Dio and I were town, which means it doesn’t make sense - a scum starting a bandwagon against town to save town. I know this only makes sense to me since I know my own alignment. But at the very least I won’t be voting for Rysto.
I know the day ends tomorrow at 11:30am PST. My dilemma is that I obviously don’t want to get lynched, but I’m not sure brewha is scum. On the other hand, it seems that single votes I throw out get accused of being safe/throwaway votes.
Sorry, I have to run - I’m expecting Dopers to arrive any minute, but I WILL post a vote before the Day is out.
You know, I really don’t like this post. Because if Hockey Monkey really were a Townie who thought that this theory had a lot of merit, she’d say that I should look at faithfool instead of her. faithfool does not fit the theory as well as Hockey Monkey does, but she fits pretty well.
Sorry Rysto, that was kind of a drive by since I’m at work. I was just saying that I like the way you are thinking, but you are on the wrong track. I don’t think **faithfool ** is scum, so it would never occur to me to substitute her into your theory.
